There are N types of Averages,with a name of its own.Example is illustrated
with Lots.
NORMAL: At each level one lot is added.
ex: 1+1+1+1+1.....
FABONACCi: Each level is summation previous last 2.
ex: 1+1+2+3+5.....
12345Fashion:At each level lots are added in 1,2,3,4,5,.....
ex: 1+2+3+4+5.....
CUMMULATIVE :At each level lots are added of previous ALL.
ex: 1+1+2+4+8.....
DOUBLING :At each level lots are added double the previous value.
ex: 1+2+4+8+16.....
A hypothetical example is taken to explain in a better way.
Normal:
Lots:5
Fabonacci:
Lots:12
12345:
Lots:15
Cummulative:
Lots:16
Doubling:
Lots:31
Risk Analysis:
The best Average Method is one which gives Good
Average Effect.(Closet to last value)Going by this
DOUBLING gives best results,but unfortunately one tends
to hold many lots. Therefore we have to consider this
along with Risk. An attempt has been made to put
into tabular form Effect(difference between last 2
values) & Risk (Lots*Effect)
Personally I will go for FIBONACCI. At lower orders
both Fibonacci & Cummulative are equal.
with Lots.
NORMAL: At each level one lot is added.
ex: 1+1+1+1+1.....
FABONACCi: Each level is summation previous last 2.
ex: 1+1+2+3+5.....
12345Fashion:At each level lots are added in 1,2,3,4,5,.....
ex: 1+2+3+4+5.....
CUMMULATIVE :At each level lots are added of previous ALL.
ex: 1+1+2+4+8.....
DOUBLING :At each level lots are added double the previous value.
ex: 1+2+4+8+16.....
A hypothetical example is taken to explain in a better way.
Normal:
HTML:
1 1 1 1 1
5040 5020 5000 4980 4960
Average 5030 5020 5010 5000
Fabonacci:
HTML:
1 1 2 3 5
5040 5020 5000 4980 4960
Average 5030 5015 5000 4983
12345:
HTML:
1 2 3 4 5
5040 5020 5000 4980 4960
Average 5026 5013 5000 4987
Cummulative:
HTML:
1 1 2 4 8
5040 5020 5000 4980 4960
Average 5030 5015 4998 4979
Doubling:
HTML:
1 2 4 8 16
5040 5020 5000 4980 4960
Average 5026 5011 4994 4976
Risk Analysis:
The best Average Method is one which gives Good
Average Effect.(Closet to last value)Going by this
DOUBLING gives best results,but unfortunately one tends
to hold many lots. Therefore we have to consider this
along with Risk. An attempt has been made to put
into tabular form Effect(difference between last 2
values) & Risk (Lots*Effect)
HTML:
4times 3times 2times
Eff....Risk Eff....Risk Eff....Risk
Normal 40....200 30....120 20....60
Fibo 23.... 276 20....140 15....60
12345 27....405 20....200 13....78
Cumm 19....304 18....144 15....60
Doub 16....496 14....210 11....77
both Fibonacci & Cummulative are equal.
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