I can help you with stock chart reading

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kannamthanam

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#523
#523
Dear sir,
Wanted to post a word of appreciation right from the beginning of the thread but held back not to spam the thread with irrelevant stuff .Now I cannot help but record my admiration for your simplicity and clarity of approach and above all the discipline to stick to your model that is exemplery.I dont know (nor do I care) whether you are senior in age or experienced but I salute the way you present trading to be done no ifs and buts just the pithy core.Please dont mind these words just carry on with the great thread.

Thanks and regards

Kannamthanam
 
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pnbalaji

Member
#524
#524
vvonteru said:
Now the question is, when is the right time to enter. Just as doctors use stethoscope to check heart beat of a sick patient, we have EMAs to check our falling markets (Its a patient now). So, lets see how the market (BSE500 or Sensex or Nifty) is doing using 8 (short), 50 (intermediate) and 200 (long term) day EMAs.
1. Below 8 day EMA. Bearish for short term
2. Below 50 day EMA. Bearish for Intermediate term.
3. Below 200 day EMA. Bearish for Long term.
4. 8 day EMA crossed down 50 day EMA. I use this for shorting.
5. 8 day EMA has not crossed down 200 day EMA. So, there is still hope for the market.
6. 50 day EMA has not crossed down 200 day EMA. This comes after step 5. This is the worst case. At this point 200 day EMA is sitting above 8 and 50. We don't want this to happen.

From the above, if you scale from -5 (bearish) to 0 to 5 (bullish), the market is around -3. So, what do we want to see if the market has to become better.

1. Market must come above 200 EMA.
2. 8 day EMA must cross above 50 day EMA.

Let the above 2 happen. Then, I will put tons of stocks for U to buy. Until, then keep the powder dry. Have the cash.

Common Sense Note: Don't feed a sick patient who has lost weight. Let the patient recover from sickness. Then we feed.

For all the people who are investing for long term. Don't think long term means, buying and holding. Long term means, buying and doing home work at each and every step. Home work on the stocks fundamentals. Did the fundamentals change? Did the fundamentals change in the market conditions. Did U consider interest rates that are rising globally? U have to consider not only stocks fundamentals but also underlying economic conditions.
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Hi VV,

Never read such wonderful explanation any where. Nice to have educative tutors like you in the forum.

Thanks,
Balaji.
 
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shethharsh

Member
#525
#525
Hey vvpnteru i need some help ,

Can u tell me if zen technologies and markans pharma are good pics . Fundamentally they're highly undervalued . I need your opinion

Harsh
 
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vvonteru

Member
#526
#526
shethharsh said:
Hey vvpnteru i need some help ,

Can u tell me if zen technologies and markans pharma are good pics . Fundamentally they're highly undervalued . I need your opinion

Harsh
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They are all beaten down. Getting close to zero. But, I can't buy. About fundamentals and long term story, you should some ask someone else in the forum. I can only help U with TA. They are bad from TA point of view.

On another note, thanks guys. Ur notice is an encoragement.
 
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Czar

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#527
#527
Sir your daily input would be billion times appreciated, approx market thoughts or anything you feel worth mentioning... hope I am not extending my welcome...
 
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vvonteru

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#528
#528
Czar said:
Sir your daily input would be billion times appreciated, approx market thoughts or anything you feel worth mentioning... hope I am not extending my welcome...
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Currently, there is nothing to write on the market. It is in oversold condition. Just as in bull market it can stay in overbought condition for long spells, in bear market it can stay oversold condition for some time. What it means to a trader:

1. Can't buy
2. Can't sell short either. I am not talking about day trading. In day trading, U can do either based on the signals. Bad thing in India is, you can't short and keep it more than a day.
3. So, the only option is keep quiet and stay out.

Therefore, coming to daily input, there is nothing to analyze. U could analyze the the levels the market will hold. But, U can do that out of interest. Other reason could be trying to determing the turn in the market. I try not to catch bottom or top. Too many traders got burnt trying to do that. I will leave that to pros. So, just relax and read books in this gloomy time.
 
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Czar

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#529
#529
thanks mate, but you can surely short & hold in derivates... so can I hold & what signals to look for to cover... you have imparted mind bogling info on the way up, would greatly appreciate on the way down too... thanks
 
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vvonteru

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#530
#530
Czar said:
thanks mate, but you can surely short & hold in derivates... so can I hold & what signals to look for to cover... you have imparted mind bogling info on the way up, would greatly appreciate on the way down too... thanks
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I have not touched derivatives so far. They are challenging. I did not want to use them. But, thats the only tool available in India, if you want to short. So, no options but, to use OPTIONS. So, I recently got 2 books to read on them.

Options are different ball game. You need to consider time. I cannot give you suggestions on them, given my recent beginnings. But, here are some pointers that can give you some perspective.

1. Market(s) has been beaten down a lot. Whenever the price deviates away from the EMAs, there will be correction to get them close (to test), specially to the 50 and 200 EMA. Again, the question you might want to know is when? Thats hard to tell.

2. In U.S., summer is bad time. Summer involves less average volume and lower prices. This also increases volatility (good for options). As U know how the indexes all over the world are dancing together.

3. When the markets are oversold, do not sell short into them for long term. Be patient. Sell into the minor rallies.

4. At the same time, whenever the prices get extended below the bollinger bands, use those to cover.

I will get back to you more after I go through the readings.
 
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