Analysis of Global and Indian Markets

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#1
I would like to share my views and understand other traders view on the markets through this thread..

As all the markets are linked, I would wish to include all the market thoughts in this thread.

I would start from the next post and would continue posting in forthcoming days.
 
#2
Indian Markets:

Nifty, at present has broken the higher low at 5100(Hourly chart) and
formed lower low at 5060. Hence, in hourly chart, we are in a
downtrend back again and in daily chart the downtrend would be
confirmed on a break of 5720.
However, I think 4830 would act as a very crucial support this time
round as that is the 200 WEMA. There has been a fake break of that and
we have closed up. Hence, a test of 4830-4788 is likely in next 1-2
week and then the trend may become rangebound to up.
However, all this is on the basis of analysis at this point of time,
and if there is a break of 5720 because of any reason( It WOULD NOT be
a fake breakout), do not hold any longs in anything, and you may
consider going short and adding short in any rally. If the break
happens, which seems very unlikely to me given the kind of valuation,
Nifty would definitely travel at least a 500-1000 points lower in the
next few months. I dont know on what news such a thing might happen,
but I think it would require a govenmental collapse or events like
that.
However, no need to worry with buying till the level(4720) breaks.
4840-4788 would be a very good buying zone as of now and till that
level shorts will be certainly safe.
Euro view- I think Euro would head to 1.25-1.30 area in next few weeks
and hence EU markets may be under pressure.
S&P view- In coming weeks I think S&P will break 1070 and the bottom
will be formed around 1050 level from where there may be heavy buying.
Gold- It may consolidate in 1650 to 1900 zone before any further
buying happens. However, a convincing break of 1900 will lead it to
2500-3900 in no time. Below 1650, bulls may start getting out. I hope
it doesnt break 1900 !!!! If that happens there would be huge
uncertainty and crisis. It may lead to a bigger war as well...
Silver- Although I am bearish in silver for many days, the fall has
not yet happened. Still, I hold my bearish view and I feel in the next
3-5 months it will head towards 25$ mark. If you are planning to buy
silver, wait for it to come to 25$ and below !!!!
Its a stopping out market, so in any trade dont keep stoploss just
hold with conviction. Once ur final stoploss hits add lots, that will
be the reversal point. Thats the pattern in silver..
Copper- Still maintaining my bearish bias that I had from 440 levels.
I think it will head towards 350-325 now.
HDFC bank- If you have any thoughts on this plz share. I feel its
going to go down below 400 very easily. PE compression is not yet done
in this bank, P/BV is above 4. Technically it looks extremely weak due
to the huge bulge sitting at the top. This bank, I feel can give the
best short side investment. Its probably one of the short and hold
stock(Without worrying about Nifty). Price target of 380 will give
around 20% return without margin.
 

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