The Big Top

#1
While I prefer trades that last a few days to a few hours (although I currently have a couple of option positions that I am holding longer because I bet against irrational exuberance), I am thinking there is some really big money to be made by anyone who can do what everyone warns traders against doing--call the top correctly in this richly priced market. Major turns come surprisingly often in sep-oct, but other dates are always possible. And I cannot absolutely rule out that this market might continue to levitate into next year. After all, Brazil's market recently continued to climb right through a national recession, fueled by QE.

Does anyone wish to stick his neck out on the chopping block and predict when this market will finally roll over? I'm still half-expecting sep or oct (it's tradition, after all), but I would like to hear other opinions. Any cycle enthusiasts here, or Ellioticians or Ganners? I think such methods are too involved for short term trading decisions, but they might be worth looking at when a major top or bottom appears to be obviously looming.
 

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