I can help you with stock chart reading

vvonteru · #**801** 7th August 2006, 07:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by timtomlee

hi vvonteru,
thanks for ur reply,

1. in ur first post, u warned that the market is going to enter correction,
how did u know that, is it because all markets, be it bonds, commodity,
currencies, futures are interrelated? if yes, how did u analyse that a
correction is about to happen and it did happen, plz give ur expert analysis

Based on overbought condition. No body can say what market can do in the next day or week or month. It is just the probability of pull back after an overbought condition increases. With stock market, we are just dealing with probability. If you have not read probability in Math, it is time for you to revisit.

Sometimes you can predict based on fundamental or news. For example, look at how indexes are just dancing around the top of the trading range. If you go and put money now, you will scratch your head as they go up and down ... It is common sense that they (big money) are waiting for something to happen before making decision either way. Closest event is the Fed increase of interest rates on Tuesday.

In affect, when trading, think at high level. Look at market indexes. Look at what sectors are doing good and bad. Look at economics of the market, like interest rates, inflation etc. I know it is lot of work. But, thats what it takes.

Quote:

2. also, in one of ur post, u said u use moving averages, macd, and
williamsr%, from a swing trader's perspective, how do u use williams'r%
or "slow stoch."?, in "dave landry on swing trading", he suggests after
his "discretional analysis", he does some market analysis, by using oscilator
based system, like 3-10 oscillator, but i didn't find it in any software, so i
think u use williamsr% or "slow sto" for that purpose. if yes, how do u know
after the pullback, that the stock is oversold and will rally once again ,
what time frame do u use for them?

RSI, Williams, Mommentum, MACD, Stocastics etc are categorised as Oscillators. EMA is a Trend Indicator. Anything which as boundaries (eg: 0 - 100) is an Oscillator. You can use 10 or 15 period for oscillator. Normally, anything above 80 is considered overbought and below 20 is oversold. Now, these numbers depend on period you choose and stock/index you are looking at. Look at the history to get the number suitable for overbought and oversold indicator. Recently, I found another way to look at overbought and oversold indicator. If you have data, find out Percentage of Stocks Above Moving Average 20, 50, 100, 200 etc for Today, Yesterday, Last Week, Last Month. If these percentages go above 80, then considered it overbought. If the percentage of stocks go below 20, then consider it oversold.

Quote:

3. dave says, that even though that market is falling, go for sectors that
are strong, and then strong stocks in that sector, what is
ur view on this?

sorry for posting such long questions, plz guide as u always do

regards,
sonu m.

If you can only go long, ya why not.

GTC Ind
-- Until it takes out 150, don't touch it.

vvonteru · #**802** 7th August 2006, 07:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aqua2006

dear vvonteru, kindly advice about my portfolio; till now i have neither been able to book profit or loss;
RIL@987
GACL@103
WIPRO@534
SAIL@73
IFCI@8.7
HINDALCO@187
IPCL@254
NTPC@123
BSEL INFRA@95(THIS IS THE WORST ONE)
DABUR@149
JET AIRWAYS@1034(I DONT THINK ABOUT THIS ONE)

ALSO PLZ. TELL ME WHAT IS TRADING IN T.T ? I WANTED TO BUY MORE BSEL INFRA(ONLINE) TO AVERAGE BUT AM NOT SURE WHETHER I CAN BUY IN T.T SEGMENT.
THANKS IN ADVANCE.

I guess you are far away from what Trading means. You are more into investing mind frame. Stops doesn't make sense anymore. Talk to someone who knows fundamental analysis. Ask them what to keep and what to drop.

aqua2006 · #**803** 7th August 2006, 07:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vvonteru

I guess you are far away from what Trading means. You are more into investing mind frame. Stops doesn't make sense anymore. Talk to someone who knows fundamental analysis. Ask them what to keep and what to drop.

thanks for nothing

kenneth · #**804** 7th August 2006, 08:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by timtomlee

hi vvonteru,

using oscilator based system, like 3-10 oscillator, but i didn't find it in any software,

As far as I know
3-10 Oscillator is a price oscillator of 3 day and 10 moving average similar to MACD. You can construct it by using OSCP function or change the parameters of MACD from 12,26 to 3,10. Oscillates above and below the Zero line.

VV Hope this is what Dave says.
Ken

Czar · #**805** 8th August 2006, 07:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aqua2006

thanks for nothing

easy mate no need for wise comments, you are not doing a favour by asking him...

vinsu · #**806** 9th August 2006, 09:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aqua2006

thanks for nothing

take it easy man. Ur portfolio and there CMP speaks for itself .

chachi · #**807** 9th August 2006, 09:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aqua2006

thanks for nothing

Hi aqua,

This is very sad to see such a surcastic comment from your side. Learn to accept the facts. You gain nothing from making such comments. We all will be at loss if we intimidate such marvellous teachers like vv. Hope you understand.

Regards
Chachi

oilman5 · #**808** 9th August 2006, 12:25 PM

hello. mr vvonteru. are you from mumbai? would you teach trading? i want to learn from you

kuldeep49 · #**809** 9th August 2006, 01:07 PM

Originally Posted by aqua2006
thanks for nothing

Easy, pal. Learn to take good advice or don't ask. As they say if you can't take the heat .....

vvonteru · #**810** 9th August 2006, 06:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aqua2006

thanks for nothing

I understand your frustration. I couldn't give you any suggestion. Because, if I were in your place, I wouldn't know what to do either. Best I would do is take the major loses. Take 6 month break. During the break, read books, develop a methodogy with money management. Do some paper trading. Then come back. But, I couldn't give that advise as it requires complete overhaul.

Every major player in today's market has gone through what you are going now. Its like Jesus (was it Jesus?) asking, show me anyone who has not erred in their life.

However, good news for you. Market indexes are showing positive. They have crossed the trading range. We are going up to tackle 2 more resistances. If they can do it, you can regain the money. So, watch the indexes.

Sectors Up
Banks
Cement
Pharma
Consumer Goods (came out of the trading range recently)
Health Care (came out of the trading range recently)
IT
BSEPSU (came out of the trading range recently and tested the top of trading range successfully)

Sectors Still in Trading Range
Consumer Durables
MIDCAP
SMALLCAP
AUTO
METAL
OILGAS (ONGC is doing good)

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