I can help you with stock chart reading

kenneth · #**791** 3rd August 2006, 10:40 PM

ThanksVV. Will use the EMA 8-50 Set up and select two or three which I find best to my knowledge.

Regards
Ken

vvonteru · #**792** 4th August 2006, 01:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vvonteru

Vinayak,

You should post this as new thread to get all readers attention.

Note on Selection Of Stocks:

One of the problem facing traders is selection of stocks. Rather I would say elimination of stocks to remain with a few for consideration. That is the reason I have strict setup criteria. Why do we need few for consideration. Because, currently my position sizing algorithm lets me have only 3 open positions. So, how do I select 3 stocks from so many. Not that others don't go up. But, I can only expose my capital so much, unless I increase my capital or risk criteria. But, I am only comfortable with the risk I have for the current capital.

The reason I am providing so much verbiage is, you need to customize position sizing algorithm to suit yourself. Some are willing to risk 2% on a trade. I can only do 1%. Some are confortable with swing of 1% capital per day. I am only comfortable with 0.75%. With the variables I have in the Excel sheet, determine how many trades you can have open. Then, have a setup criteria to select the best. If you can trade 10 stocks, your selection criteria must be lenient than mine. Because, a setup criteria must suit the system you have. A setup criteria must end up giving you enough trades to fit your risk criteria. Finally, the amount of profit depends on the frequency and no. of trades with the system you developed.

Kenneth,

Can you give me the best 5 of those to comment on. Add to your setup criteria to limit them to 5. Or if you have to trade, which 5 will you trade.

Market,

Its hanging in the trading range. Either it has no will to beyond the trading range or is waiting for some positive news to get up. BANKS are still doing good.

Market:

Guys, its the U.S non farm employment report on Friday that makes or breaks things. That is the reason, indexes are hanging on the top of the range, doing nothing.

It will be too late for India to react to U.S news on Friday. It will have to be on Monday. If you want to be active, come up with list of stocks that you want to go long AND short. On Monday, expect a GAP opening in the indexes and stocks. Enter positions intraday. You should get a clue from tomorrow's U.S markets. So, hang in there till Monday.

ratish13 · #**793** 4th August 2006, 10:06 AM

how to read the chart?

Quote:

Originally Posted by vvonteru

I am new to this group. But have been trading for 2 years now. I do swing trading. I see lot of posts where they need suggestion on buy/sell. I can help.

Give me a stock. I will tell you what to do - Buy/ Short (I don't know why some one would do now, unless if you are day trading) . Or If you are already in some stock and want to know whether to sell, I can help.

I do swing trading. I like site: http://www.icharts.in/home/ to start with, which I got from this group. Please take a look at: http://www.icharts.in/breadth-charts.html. The market in the hindsight will have a deeper correction (more than a pull back). So, be carefull and have stops.

timtomlee · #**794** 4th August 2006, 12:26 PM

hi vvonteru,

can u give ur analysis for the following stocks:

GUJAMBCEM
PRISMCEM
GRASIM
AMARAJABAT
KESORAMIND
HEXAWARE
JBFIND
AUROPHARMA
CROMPGREAV
SHREECEM
EXIDEIND
LUMAXIND
ELDERPHARM
ORIENTHOT

for short term perspective.(swing trade)

also, what does 52 week high, or 3month high means?
plz guide

regards,
sonu m.

vvonteru · #**795** 6th August 2006, 03:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by timtomlee

hi vvonteru,

can u give ur analysis for the following stocks:

GUJAMBCEM
PRISMCEM
GRASIM
AMARAJABAT
KESORAMIND
HEXAWARE
JBFIND
AUROPHARMA
CROMPGREAV
SHREECEM
EXIDEIND
LUMAXIND
ELDERPHARM
ORIENTHOT

for short term perspective.(swing trade)

also, what does 52 week high, or 3month high means?
plz guide

regards,
sonu m.

52 week high or 3 month high means you are selecting the channel length. You want to consider stocks above/below the channel. Higher the channel length, stronger/weaker the filtered stocks. Stock market consists of tons of data. There are alway attempts to filter the price and volume data. All the indicators are just filters of price and volume data. 52 week high or 3 month high is another attempt to filter out those stocks that fall with in the channel.

You have picked good momentum stocks overall. I have ranked them. Always restrict to 1 stock per sector. Concentrate on Banks, Cements and Pharma. Wait for the indexes (BSE500, SENSEX, NIFTY) to come out of the trading range. If they don't go above the trading range next week, do not go long on stocks.

High Rank
AMARAJABAT
LUMAXIND
GRASIM
KESORAMIND
AUROPHARMA
CROMPGREAV
SHREECEM

Medium Rank
GUJAMBCEM
HEXAWARE
JBFIND

Low Rank
PRISMCEM
EXIDEIND
ELDERPHARM
ORIENTHOT

timtomlee · #**796** 6th August 2006, 05:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vvonteru

52 week high or 3 month high means you are selecting the channel length. You want to consider stocks above/below the channel. Higher the channel length, stronger/weaker the filtered stocks. Stock market consists of tons of data. There are alway attempts to filter the price and volume data. All the indicators are just filters of price and volume data. 52 week high or 3 month high is another attempt to filter out those stocks that fall with in the channel.

You have picked good momentum stocks overall. I have ranked them. Always restrict to 1 stock per sector. Concentrate on Banks, Cements and Pharma. Wait for the indexes (BSE500, SENSEX, NIFTY) to come out of the trading range. If they don't go above the trading range next week, do not go long on stocks.

High Rank
AMARAJABAT
LUMAXIND
GRASIM
KESORAMIND
AUROPHARMA
CROMPGREAV
SHREECEM

Medium Rank
GUJAMBCEM
HEXAWARE
JBFIND

Low Rank
PRISMCEM
EXIDEIND
ELDERPHARM
ORIENTHOT

thanks vvonteru for ur encouraging reply

,

plz clarify, i still didn"t understood 52 week high/ 3 month high, because,
in "dave landry on swing trading", he suggests stocks must make 2 month
(43 days) high,and in his examples the stock's last bar is higher than the last 43 days, and it then goes in pullback, but the channel concept is not there,could u plz explain once again, are there any indicators for channel leghth , kindly explain.

also does "bollinger bands" comes under the channel length concept,
for acco. to elder in "come into..", buy stocks on the SMA of Boll B., sell at the upper channel or when it is going below the upp.channel, and buyback when it again reaches the SMA. how is it related to volatality?

also, how do we know that the trading range is over, does it means that it breaks above the resistence level?

kindly oblidge as u always do.

regards,
sonu m.

vvonteru · #**797** 6th August 2006, 08:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by timtomlee

thanks vvonteru for ur encouraging reply

,

plz clarify, i still didn"t understood 52 week high/ 3 month high, because,
in "dave landry on swing trading", he suggests stocks must make 2 month
(43 days) high,and in his examples the stock's last bar is higher than the last 43 days, and it then goes in pullback, but the channel concept is not there,could u plz explain once again, are there any indicators for channel leghth , kindly explain.

Dave is suggesting minimum channel length as 2 month for filter. If you start from stocks that made high compared to yesterday, 1 week high, 2 week high .... 1 month high .... 2 month high, Dave is asking to consider 2 month high. Channel length depends on your descretion and the market in general. After the recent downfall in May and June, if you have asked for 2 month high in July, you might get nothing. In that case you have to try 1 month.

Channel is not some concept, but just a name for setup criteria. Think channel as 2 parallel lines, 1 top and 1 bottom determined by the period (2 month or 12 month etc). There are stocks that fall between the 2 parallel lines and those fall above and below. From the 90s, they has been general understanding that buy stocks that make new highs and short stocks that make new lows. So, those stocks that appear above the top of the channel are considered for buying. Similar is the case for short for stocks that fall below the bottom channel line.

Quote:

also does "bollinger bands" comes under the channel length concept,
for acco. to elder in "come into..", buy stocks on the SMA of Boll B., sell at the upper channel or when it is going below the upp.channel, and buyback when it again reaches the SMA. how is it related to volatality?

Bollinger bands are drawn considering the volatility of the stock. I use it to avoid buying (rather sell) when a stock goes above the bollinger band.

Elder likes to buy stocks when they come between two short term sma/ema. For example, if a stock comes between 10 and 20 ema. He calls it sweet zone. Stock always go up and test the emas now and then.

Quote:

also, how do we know that the trading range is over, does it means that it breaks above the resistence level?

kindly oblidge as u always do.

regards,
sonu m.

Yes. However, there are false break outs. Dave suggests to wait for pull back after the break out. Currently, the indexes are hovering around the top of the trading range. Same with U.S indexes. All are waiting for Tuesday's Federal Resever Interest Rate Hike. If there is no hike, you can expect a big rally. So, I advise wait for Wednesday. You will get hint from tuesday's U.S market.

aqua2006 · #**798** 7th August 2006, 12:28 AM

dear vvonteru, kindly advice about my portfolio; till now i have neither been able to book profit or loss;
RIL@987
GACL@103
WIPRO@534
SAIL@73
IFCI@8.7
HINDALCO@187
IPCL@254
NTPC@123
BSEL INFRA@95(THIS IS THE WORST ONE)
DABUR@149
JET AIRWAYS@1034(I DONT THINK ABOUT THIS ONE)

ALSO PLZ. TELL ME WHAT IS TRADING IN T.T ? I WANTED TO BUY MORE BSEL INFRA(ONLINE) TO AVERAGE BUT AM NOT SURE WHETHER I CAN BUY IN T.T SEGMENT.
THANKS IN ADVANCE.

pasha · #**799** 7th August 2006, 11:26 AM

Hi vvonteru,
What do you think of GTC industries as an investment for the next 3 months or so?

timtomlee · #**800** 7th August 2006, 05:41 PM

hi vvonteru,
thanks for ur reply,

1. in ur first post, u warned that the market is going to enter correction,
how did u know that, is it because all markets, be it bonds, commodity,
currencies, futures are interrelated? if yes, how did u analyse that a
correction is about to happen and it did happen, plz give ur expert analysis

2. also, in one of ur post, u said u use moving averages, macd, and
williamsr%, from a swing trader's perspective, how do u use williams'r%
or "slow stoch."?, in "dave landry on swing trading", he suggests after
his "discretional analysis", he does some market analysis, by using oscilator
based system, like 3-10 oscillator, but i didn't find it in any software, so i
think u use williamsr% or "slow sto" for that purpose. if yes, how do u know
after the pullback, that the stock is oversold and will rally once again ,
what time frame do u use for them?

3. dave says, that even though that market is falling, go for sectors that
are strong, and then strong stocks in that sector, what is
ur view on this?

sorry for posting such long questions, plz guide as u always do

regards,
sonu m.

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