I can help you with stock chart reading

Hi vvonteru,
Reliance capital is trading at 480-485.
What do you say about this stock. Will this stock have breakout upside.

Hi vvonteru,
Would like to know your views on Reliance Communication.
This stock is again moving down.
I have bought it at 260. CMP is 219.
What should i do.

Regards,
Nilesh

Oilman for Swing Trading
-- Be specific. I can't teach you entire swing trading. Take a book and start. There are lot of books I suggested and are available online. Search this thread. I can only suggest on a specific stock.

ster 30@400
-- I saw this stock on iCharts. Looks like not split adjusted. This has MACD divergence as other stocks. Wait for couple more days to see some light. In the mean while, your exit must be when MACD is negative or crossover.

gujnrecoke 100@90
-- This is an example why MACD divergence may not work always and you should exit if it turns negative/crosses down. This stock is not in a good position to buy. I am not sure what you want to do with this at this point.

hindmotor 100@40
--MACD crossed over and is positive. Has hope. Those that have fallen, take time to get up. They go up, down, up, down and finally get up. Just to give you an idea. They just don't get up and start running. Since, you are trying to get the bottom, you should be willing to wait longer time to see results.

bselinfra 50@72
--As I said earlier, the fallen once take time to get up. MACD is about to turn positive. I will pass on this one on how to handle the point you bought.

Reliance capital is trading at 480-485.
What do you say about this stock. Will this stock have breakout upside.
-- Nice pull back. You should expect it go up in couple of days. If you want to enter, enter above yesterday's high + x. Understand that you are taking signal based on new trend and MACD turning positive.

Reliance Communications (RCVL)
-- You bought this stock after continous 9 updays. What were you expecting. It will go up forever. Please avoid buying at overbought condition (shorting at oversold condition). There is no balm to cool your pain. Sometimes this pain is must. Gives you a lesson not to do it again. There is only one reason to buy RCVL (and most of others too). i.e., MACD divergence. Use that for exit too. If MACD histogram goes negative or MACD crosses down, exit.

How do you know it is overbought or oversold. Use oscilators like Williams or Slow/Fast Stocastics or RSI etc. Or, something has been up for 3 or more days, avoid buying. Wait for 2 or more down days (< 7) to buy. Similar for shorting in the opposite way.

Hi,

Can you take a look at Mysore cement chart? There has been some news of stake sale etc.. I would like to enter the script.

Thanx,
kumar

I did not like the reversal today with high volume. This might be attributed to the stake sale news. Lets wait for couple of days more to see whether it will recover from the reversal. You could use the slow stochastic crossover to enter.

I was surprised by the reversal too, I am hoping it will recover tomorrow.
The company didn't dispute the stake sale news

Thanks for your comments.

kumar

Why don't you look at the following:
1. Reliance Industries
2. SAIL
3. Infosys
4. Reliance Capital

Hi Vvonteru,

I am also following SAIL. What are your views on it.

The price is moving right along the trend line as u can see in the file I have attached. The trend line joining the tops also turns support and joins the second trend line along which the prices and moving very nicely

What I cannot understand is which one is more reliable- EMAs or Simple Moving Average. As you can see in the file attached, 50 day SMA is giving it resistance and 50 day EMA is giving it support. So which one do you think is more valid.

There is more acitivity between 80 and 85 levels. Both are good resistance and support levels. Actually 86.5 would be a better level.

RSI is +ve. MACD is short term MA is just about touching 26 day MA. so on that front we still have to wait and watch. I am still learning slowly about other indicators so do not have much views.

A close above 80 and holding there with good volumes should be nice.

Your comments pls.


Rgds

Rahul

Attached Images

SAIL.PNG (45.3 KB, 37 views)

It does not matter if you use MA or EMA. What matters is you using the indicators consistently to get buy or sell signals. When you make 10 trades, each trade signal should have been taken based on same indicators. For this, define how and when you buy/sell a stock. What conditions should exist before you consider a stock. What should happen there after for you to buy. How will you determine the risk you are going to take. How will you take profits. Here is the example, why SAIL has come to your consideration.

A. Lets say you had this Buy Criteria written down (This is called SETUP):
1. Market is trending up or turning with MACD divergence
2. Sector is trending up or turning. Stock is following sector.
3. 8 day EMA crosses up 50 day EMA
4. Volume is above 1,00,000
5. Stock price is above 50

B. When will you pull the trigger? From the above, the stock is identified based on your setup criteria. Here is what you wrote down should happen for you to pull the trigger.
1. Stock should pull back a minimum of 2 days and less than 7 days.
2. Enter above yesterday's high + x. If today's close is close to yesterday's high, then day before yesterday's high + x.

C. What is the risk?
1. You will be using 3 * ATR (Average True Range equivalent to average of High-Low for last 10 days, baring gaps)

D. How much position size should you use. You use the Excel I attached in previous reply.
1. You will be using 1% risk of your Principal.
2. Max 3% risk open positions
3. You willing to take volatility of Principal per day for a stock = 0.5% of Principal

[i]E. How will you take profits.
1. Will trail stop at 3 * ATR from price. Once 1R (R - Risk) is reached, stop will be trailed to 2 * R.

This is an example on how you take trades. Take out guess work. Even if you make 3 positive trades out of 10 trades, you will make money. Concentrate more on Position Size and Exits (Risk and Profits) than the setup and entry. Most traders do the other way. They are more worried about setup than the exits. They think about exit after an entry. Sometimes, they never have an exit strategy. Abimanyu Style!!

It does not matter you lose on 1 stock. 1 stock does not verify your strategy. You have to look statistics of 10 or 20 trades which have been made consistently. Then you can determine your strategy is working.

Sail is looking good. Buy above yesterday's + x. Don't forget to think about exits.

Hi Vvonteru,

Great write up. thanks

Rahul