I can help you with stock chart reading

amitkr · #**421** 21st May 2006, 07:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vvonteru

It is hard to advise if U don't tell me where and when U bought. Stock's chart looks good and aims upward from here. Have a stop at 16.

Hi VV,

Sunflag steel... Bought @21 some 10 months ago.... crahsed badly now...

Any updates highly appreciated..

Thanks
Amit

Czar · #**422** 21st May 2006, 07:37 PM

sirji i have taken skits from your golden words & made a new thread hope you dont mind

vvonteru · #**423** 21st May 2006, 09:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Czar

sirji i have taken skits from your golden words & made a new thread hope you dont mind

No. Not at all. Great Job. The thead has become too big. U picked the right stuff. Thanks.

vvonteru · #**424** 21st May 2006, 09:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by amitkr

Hi VV,

Sunflag steel... Bought @21 some 10 months ago.... crahsed badly now...

Any updates highly appreciated..

Thanks
Amit

16 is still the base. However, here are few questions and comments:

1. How good is this company? Is the company going down in business?

2. The reason I ask question 1 is, the stock price is too close to zero. Can U keep it? Answer this question based on how much U are going to lose if this stock goes to Rs 5. This depends on Ur position size.

3. Market is in oversold condition. That doesn't mean it is not going down Monday. It just means, it has faily good chance it may experience slight rebound. If it does, Ur stock improves (don't wait for break even), get out. Get out on the second day of rebound. To be catious, take partial out on the 1st day of rebound.

4. Finally, understand the main reason why this market is going down. Its because of METALS and OILS. Thats the correction. They had a huge run. Gold, Silver, Steel, Aluminium etc had huge run up globally. Gold is all time high, seen earlier in 1980s. Right now, it is (was a week back) in speculation stage and had get corrected. However, they are not going down. It is just a correction till they come close to 50day EMA.

5. Why did I point 4? because, yours is a steel stock too.

Based on 1 to 5 points, decide on the stock. Biggest thing we learn in stock market is decision making against time. Whether we lose or make money. We make decisions. Those who make better decisions (which may not necessarily make money all the time, but are made on set of principles) win the race.

amitkr · #**425** 22nd May 2006, 06:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vvonteru

16 is still the base. However, here are few questions and comments:

1. How good is this company? Is the company going down in business?

2. The reason I ask question 1 is, the stock price is too close to zero. Can U keep it? Answer this question based on how much U are going to lose if this stock goes to Rs 5. This depends on Ur position size.

3. Market is in oversold condition. That doesn't mean it is not going down Monday. It just means, it has faily good chance it may experience slight rebound. If it does, Ur stock improves (don't wait for break even), get out. Get out on the second day of rebound. To be catious, take partial out on the 1st day of rebound.

4. Finally, understand the main reason why this market is going down. Its because of METALS and OILS. Thats the correction. They had a huge run. Gold, Silver, Steel, Aluminium etc had huge run up globally. Gold is all time high, seen earlier in 1980s. Right now, it is (was a week back) in speculation stage and had get corrected. However, they are not going down. It is just a correction till they come close to 50day EMA.

5. Why did I point 4? because, yours is a steel stock too.

Based on 1 to 5 points, decide on the stock. Biggest thing we learn in stock market is decision making against time. Whether we lose or make money. We make decisions. Those who make better decisions (which may not necessarily make money all the time, but are made on set of principles) win the race.

Hi ,

Many Thanks for your time on this...

The company is doing just OK(not good)...(latest 5% dividend proposed )

I entered this stock following lots of bulk buying by Reliance fund...
Reliance is currently holding 60 lacs shares of this company @20-21.

Mittal-Arceor deal may do some good for the steel sector...

Anyways , When I wake up today at 7:30 (currently in the UK) not only this stock but all stocks were hammered to death.... (around 12 pm india time)

So still invested....

Thanks once again..
Regards
Amit

kuldeep49 · #**426** 23rd May 2006, 09:07 PM

Hi Vvonteru,
After keeping my head down to avoid the flying missiles, I had a look at my existing portfolio now. Tell me what do the charts foretell on:
Infosys
ITC
Karur Vyasya Bank
Lupin
Nagarjuna Constructions
Nahar Exports
Satyam
TCS
Voltas
Can I add to any of these positions at current prices or should I just continue to hold?
Regards

vvonteru · #**427** 24th May 2006, 08:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kuldeep49

Hi Vvonteru,
After keeping my head down to avoid the flying missiles, I had a look at my existing portfolio now. Tell me what do the charts foretell on:
Infosys
ITC
Karur Vyasya Bank
Lupin
Nagarjuna Constructions
Nahar Exports
Satyam
TCS
Voltas
Can I add to any of these positions at current prices or should I just continue to hold?
Regards

Infosys
-- Hopefully, 2800 acts as the support. But, when it pulls up it will setup up as short.

ITC
-- Pulling up. Will setup up as short.

Karur Vyasya Bank
-- Looks like the current downtrend in the market is not affecting this stock. But, as respect to the current downtrend to the market, stay away from going long.

Lupin
--Pulling up. Will setup up as short.

Nagarjuna Constructions
--Pulling up. Will setup up as short. Highly volatile even for a short.

Nahar Exports
--I will avoid this even for a short. But, it is setting up for it though.

Satyam
--Really bad. Pulling up. Will setup up as short.

TCS
--1700 is the immediate support. But, Pulling up. Will setup up as short.

Voltas
--Kind of breached the trading range. Hopefully, its just noise and goes back to the trading range till the market comes back.

U might be wondering why every stock is setting up for a short. Look at BSE500 or nifty. The market itself is setting up for a short. There are still no indications of stop in downtrend. Answer to the question of adding or holding, it depends on your strategy. If U are a long term investor, I will not suggest U what to do. Because, I don't believe in such thing called long term. If U are not a long term player, why are U still having positions? About adding new positions, no for short to intermediate term, considering the current market conditions.

kuldeep49 · #**428** 24th May 2006, 12:01 PM

Hi Vvonteru,
I guess you are right. Do you think that the current rise in prices is just a testing of the new resistance level? Should we take this opportunity to sell at the best prices? Also on the charts of ITC, Infosys, Satyam, and TCS, is there a double top reversal taking place?
Regards

vvonteru · #**429** 24th May 2006, 05:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kuldeep49

Hi Vvonteru,
I guess you are right. Do you think that the current rise in prices is just a testing of the new resistance level? Should we take this opportunity to sell at the best prices? Also on the charts of ITC, Infosys, Satyam, and TCS, is there a double top reversal taking place?
Regards

Looks like Ur confusion is, U did not make a determination of what kind of a player U are (long term, short/intermediate). Its high time U did that before the confusion costs U. If U (or All) want suggestion, go for short to intermediate term. For long term approach, use Funds to that.

Research on the funds. Even in the funds case, there is an exit strategy. On the weekly chart, if 8 Week EMA is crossing down 200 Week EMA, then exit out of the fund (if this happens, market should be in worst condition). Look for a good company holding the funds with long history. Look for funds that give 10 to 30 percent or more consistently year after year. Invest in funds on a monthly basis to leverage cost averaging. Thats what I call a long term approach, where U don't care these market corrections.

Now, coming to the stocks, its very hard to say what is the right thing to do. U will be damned if U do it, U will be damned if U don't do it. For short term approach, in this condition, I resort to taking partial positions of the table. Atleast, U are partial correct or wrong. If further drawdown occurs, take more of the table. For long term, they say, keep it and hope it corrects. I feel the market comes back too. But, I just don't like to hope. We may escape now. But, one (dooms) day, there will be a final trap.

When do U know the market is going to come back? One pulse to check is, people start recommending stocks to buy in this thread

. Other would be the market makes a double bottom or has MACD divergence and goes up with considerable volume.

kumar7 · #**430** 24th May 2006, 08:33 PM

What do you think of India cements and Essar oil? Do you think they will recover; It is probably not the right time to buy.

Kumar

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