I can help you with stock chart reading

Originally Posted by babs

Hi

could u pls advise what indicators can help to forcast the next movement of a scrip. i am a day trader, could u pls tell is there any co-relation statisticks among prev.close,todays open,todays high,todays low and last trade price.
normally in my day trading before reaching the target my stoploss is trigerring. may be due to lack of experience.

pls help

babs

Originally Posted by sujarouf

Hi
Can you please give your technical opinion on the following stocks:

NETWORTH STOCK BSE CODE 511551
RDBINDS BSE CODE 526723
FORTUNE INFO BSE CODE 532326
GUJNRECOKE
VISHALEXPO
FACOR STEELS BSE CODE 532657
TFCILTD

Thanks in advance and best regards

Suja

Originally Posted by vvonteru

NETWORTH STOCK BSE CODE 511551
-- The volume is low. I feel U will get trapped. Recent price action is ok. Overall, I will pass this stock.

RDBINDS BSE CODE 526723
-- This is ok. If U want enter, do it on Monday.

FORTUNE INFO BSE CODE 532326
-- Avoid

GUJNRECOKE
-- Avoid. Look Weekly, All Data in icharts.in to get an idea. Try different timeframes to get an idea of the stock pattern.

VISHALEXPO
-- Avoid

FACOR STEELS BSE CODE 532657
-- Avoid. Look Weekly, All Data in icharts.in to get an idea. Price too low.

TFCILTD
-- Avoid. Price too low and not an impressive chart.

U should reconsider the source of these stocks.

Originally Posted by vvonteru

If U think about it, it works both ways. Lets do the 52 week low again.

Everybody is selling. Stock has been falling for long time. After some time, a stock is worth something that reflects the companies value: its cash flow, technology, real estate etc. So, at that point, is it worth going and shorting. Why do we want to sell a stock when its value is equal or less to that of the company.

Similarly, a value of stock as it goes up happens in 3 stages. In the 1st stage, the value is less than the fundamentals of the company. At this point only few people know about this fact. In the 2nd stage, value is equal to the company's fundamentals. In the final stage, value is greater than the company's fundamentals. The final stage is called the speculation stage. Everybody knows about. Like the stock CLASSIC. Recent example is also GOLD prices.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/int...x=32&draw.y=10

Speculation stage is a good and bad. Good because the stock price increases faster as many people know about. Bad because, sooner or later, there will be correction as the prices get too out of hand. Those people who join late will be hurt. How do you know this stage. From TA point of view, the momentum should tell. From fundamentals, Trailing and Forward P/E of the stock compared to industry and other stocks in the industry.

As I said in earlier posts, its very hard and risky to catch bottom and top. U may forsee stock or market is going to fall. Timing it is very hard. Rather approach it based on your objectives. Be it either entry or profit taking.

Even though 52 week high is good for buying, the risk to reward is much better if you buy close to 50 day EMA. This also depends on the general market. Before May downfall, if you were waiting for a stock to buy at 50 day EMA, you would have been waiting for ever. Right now, most of them are trading close to 50 day EMA. So, there is no straight answer.

This market has been going up. Inspite of that, there are some elements that need improvement. Specially, VOLUME. Also, I see stocks rolling off or going sideways. Rolling off in IT sector: WIPRO, SATYAMCOMP, INFOSYSTCH. Sidways in most of the stocks. Is it consolidation or leg down. Only future can tell. Lets wait for the signs.

Originally Posted by vvonteru

Thanks. I will take this opportunity to recap what I have given and where we want to take this thread in future. Here are the most important aspects I think I have given.

1. Be consistent in whatever U do. Have a trading plan.

Trading is a small cycle. Write down the trading plan and following it consistently. Do not be swayed by the market. Market always lures into taking different paths. Do not get swayed by it. Your trading plan is the Tree which you use it as support in the cyclone of the market.
Do you know about Odysseus and Sirens story. See the attached image. The mast is your plan. Sirens are the market. You drowning in the sea represents loses.

2. Use Position Size for Money Management.

Use the calculator I attached earlier. Without using this, there is no hope for your success. Remember, with one Win you are not going to the bank and taking your money. With one loss, you are not going bankrupt. If you are serious, you are there day in day out for many years. Position sizing with constant risk is the key to winning on Long Term.

3. Stop Loss and Profit Taking

Devise a strategy for exits. Exits are the key to your winning. If you look around on Traderji, most people are bothered about entries. We are looking at the wrong place.

4. Continue to read.

Give yourself many years. Accompany trading with reading. Continue to experiment and improve.

As I suggested in the recent replies, from now on, I want this thread to have your viewpoint. Specially, I like to hear contrary view points. This is what I want to know.

1. I like to know views on pull back methodology.

2. New techniques for Stop Loss, Profit Taking methodologies.

3. When I suggest a stock, I want your pros and cons of taking the trade.

Basically, I want to avoid TUNNEL view. Lets share and improve our trading.


Consider EXIDEIND for entry.

Originally Posted by vvonteru

We got the sign. Avoid longs for now. Don't compromise on stops and profit taking.

Cut your loses!!!. But how? This is one area I am currently working. In many books you read, 'Cut your loses and let your winners run'. But, they don't tell how you cut your loses. I sent a mail to Dave Landry once about how we can cut loses. His opinion was that it is hard to cut loses due the recent stock price action. Stocks are not going up immediatly after a pull back as they used to. They take their own time, going sideways before going up. So, here are some questions that we need to answer. And we should be able to use the answers consistently without guesswork.

* how do you differentiate between a stock going up versus going sideways versus going down?
* When can we lose trust in a stock before it hits your stop
* Should we continue to hold a stock when you see a clear signal from the indexes like we saw today

I recently was toggling with MACD cross down as a signal to take out the position. MACD cross down occurs due to stock being not able to keep up with earlier momentum. After the crossover, the stock can trade sideways and go up or go down. We have 2 options.

Option 1:
Cut loss when MACD cross down and avoid that stock until next pull back.

Option 2:
Cut loss when MACD cross down. Get back in when MACD crosses up. This happens if a stock is going sidways and then goes up.

Downside using MACD:
If using Option 2, U might have multiple crossovers if stock is going sideways. However, you could use last N day high to enter again.

Application:
Choose a particular option. Don't change them between stocks.

Your Comments?

Look at Sensex and Nifty. See MACD(12,26,9) and MACD(3,10,1). See Anything? Any difference between MACD(12,26,9) versus MACD(3,10,1) in how they provide information?

Can we use MACD(3,10,1) for cutting loses?