New Intermed Uptrend!!

Saint · #**3921** 28th July 2007, 11:54 PM

Thanks everyone for your kind words!

All the best!
Saint

Saint · #**3922** 29th July 2007, 12:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by satya_pinku2003

hi Saint yesterday we hit the last pivot and also closed below that ........ now downtrend started ... then when we should short ... should we wait for rally which may make lower pivot high and then break of pivot low to short or simply we short yesterday as it hit the last pivot

waiting your reply

Regards
Satya

Quote:

Downtrend haven't started yet. The uptrend line is broken as off now and it is in question. Still we are not sure of downtrend unless we have rally below the higher high and falls below lower low. Saint will explain more precisely.

Raj

There are many answers to that question,Satya.The final answer would be to do what suits you best.

Basically,what do we have?We have a primary uptrend,an intermediate uptrend,but daily uptrend just got cracked.Means nothing till the markets do what Raj describes.Even if that happens,what then do we have........a dntrend on the daily charts,but still holding up the uptrend on the longer term charts.

Now as we had discussed earlier,we have an intermediate uptrend,with a daily charts going increasingly vertical......therefore when we get a break of that uptrendline,we are out.We wait now......We are not bearish yet.Why not?We still have an intermediate uptrend in progress,and we don't want to mess with that.What we are looking for is the daily charts to give us an indication to go long again.

So,our strategy now:We wait .......if you are a longer term player to go long again.The latest pivot low on the weekly is 4100,means whatever the daily does,we wait till that opportune moment gives us an indication to go long again.

On the other hand,if over the next few weeks of volatility gives us a lower pivot high on the weekly and then a lower pivot low,breaking that previous pivot low would be a cue to get in short.

For now,we wait.........

Can you get in and capitalise on a short following the daily dntrend.......sure,no harm in taking a swing short once a daily dntrend is confirmed but be fully aware that we are still very much in an intermediate uptrend.Always more volatile till all time frames are in agreement........

So,for the newcomers and the intermediate trend traders,more a time to sit out and wait till we start buying in again.The more advanced and swing traders can try to capitalise on this down move.........but the important thing to keep in mind:The intermediate uptrend is still on,and with that in mind,trade your timeframe.

All the best!
Saint

Saint · #**3923** 29th July 2007, 02:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by satya_pinku2003

Thank you very much saint ....... for your explanation and those things about steeper trend line ..... yes one has to get out at 4555 and can re enter later ....

Learning from your every post

One doubt
In general , can this type of situation be handle with MM or position sizing when we have our stop loss far away ..... like we exited our half position at 4555 and half at 4452

please explain

waiting your reply
Regards
Satya

That's your strategy to take,Satya........for example,you could take x position in Nifty and get out a third once the trendline cracks,one third when pivots crack,and hold the third as markets are still in an intermed uptrend as you are playing the longer haul,and then get back the other two thirds once you get the necessary signals to go long again.

Or you could exit all third's and look to reenter once we get the necessary signal to go long again...........Or hold all till the intermediate trend cracks,and then out all and short all.

Basically,n number of ways.......so tweak as per your comfort levels.

Shall add more later!

Saint

Saint · #**3924** 29th July 2007, 02:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by maxmak

Dear Saint,
Well today i made money buying huge quantities! It was a 300 fall down and i picked up Maruti, Nagarjuna Fertilisers,TCS, Karnataka Bank along with others and made money in all of these.

Great going,Max!!Well done!

Quote:

I closed 70% of my poistions and kept 30% of them for tommorow ....Why? Reliance is going to be a Eye popper aswell as SBI also the Dow Jones fall is overdone and has achieved its target at 13550 and I think it is going to be a bit tough to cross 13650 but Dow will do it eventually.

Ah,hope you are right......but whatever our minds throw up,trade it whatever the direction.

Quote:

All the analysts in the world paint a bad picture of US markets. However the US knows what it is doing. It really is a Master at the Game. Dow my personal target is 18000 and I feel the World cannot go down till that time.
I have based this on Theory of my father who is 84 and has been in stocks since 1940s.....I have previously sold Infosys at its top using his theories..... even today he sits and watches CNBC and tells me this is a buy and this is a sell. His theories are more stronger than my 2 decades of Technical Analysis.....

Have the deepest respect for people like your father,lucky to have a mentor in your own house.

And well done,on the INFY bit.........nice!

Quote:

So let us not get overly bearish.
God Bless.
Regards/Max/ chinasindhi@yahoo.com

Ah,never overly bearish,my friend.Never overly bullish either.Am a student of the trend,and will happily go either direction on a change of trend.At the present moment,from a long term perspective,still bullish,From intermediate perspective,still bullish.........not what I feel,or what I think,or what I hope,but just on looking at the trends.More has to happen for a change in that view.

Best regards to your father and to yourself.

All the best!
Saint

mangalorebull · #**3925** 29th July 2007, 08:21 AM

Great posts saint.
I have been quietly enjoying reading your posts.Very sensible and informative, I must say.
regards
mb

pshirurkar · #**3926** 29th July 2007, 01:43 PM

Dow Down More Than 200 Points On Friday. Sbi And Reliance Posted Impressing Quarterlt Results On Saturday.
On Monday We May See Tug- Of-war Betn Bulls And Bears
Watch And Enjoy....

avinash · #**3927** 30th July 2007, 01:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pshirurkar

Dow Down More Than 200 Points On Friday. Sbi And Reliance Posted Impressing Quarterlt Results On Saturday.
On Monday We May See Tug- Of-war Betn Bulls And Bears
Watch And Enjoy....

Yes,it is going to be interesting.

avinash · #**3928** 30th July 2007, 01:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saint

There are many answers to that question,Satya.The final answer would be to do what suits you best.

Basically,what do we have?We have a primary uptrend,an intermediate uptrend,but daily uptrend just got cracked.Means nothing till the markets do what Raj describes.Even if that happens,what then do we have........a dntrend on the daily charts,but still holding up the uptrend on the longer term charts.

Now as we had discussed earlier,we have an intermediate uptrend,with a daily charts going increasingly vertical......therefore when we get a break of that uptrendline,we are out.We wait now......We are not bearish yet.Why not?We still have an intermediate uptrend in progress,and we don't want to mess with that.What we are looking for is the daily charts to give us an indication to go long again.

So,our strategy now:We wait .......if you are a longer term player to go long again.The latest pivot low on the weekly is 4100,means whatever the daily does,we wait till that opportune moment gives us an indication to go long again.

On the other hand,if over the next few weeks of volatility gives us a lower pivot high on the weekly and then a lower pivot low,breaking that previous pivot low would be a cue to get in short.

For now,we wait.........

Can you get in and capitalise on a short following the daily dntrend.......sure,no harm in taking a swing short once a daily dntrend is confirmed but be fully aware that we are still very much in an intermediate uptrend.Always more volatile till all time frames are in agreement........

So,for the newcomers and the intermediate trend traders,more a time to sit out and wait till we start buying in again.The more advanced and swing traders can try to capitalise on this down move.........but the important thing to keep in mind:The intermediate uptrend is still on,and with that in mind,trade your timeframe.

All the best!
Saint

Excellent stuff,Saint.I have shorted the Nifty futures on Friday.Where is the point I can add to the NIFTY short position?

I meant this as a swing trade.Yes,kept in mind that it is still an intermediate uptrend.Thanks.

Sincerely,
Avinash

Saint · #**3929** 30th July 2007, 02:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by phoenix

We have the DOW closing 200 pts down today,down 4% for the week.

This Monday is going to be exciting!

Quote:

Dow Down More Than 200 Points On Friday. Sbi And Reliance Posted Impressing Quarterlt Results On Saturday.
On Monday We May See Tug- Of-war Betn Bulls And Bears
Watch And Enjoy....

Yep,.....interesting and exciting as always.

Saint

Saint · #**3930** 30th July 2007, 02:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mangalorebull

Great posts saint.
I have been quietly enjoying reading your posts.Very sensible and informative, I must say.
regards
mb

Thank you,MB,for your warm remarks.....

Saint

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