New Intermed Uptrend!!

lvgandhi · #**3901** 28th July 2007, 12:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by uasish

This is the true color of a veteran speaking on a day when Boys are seperated from Men.

I also would like to second this. As second is done, I will third it!

Anupama Singh · #**3902** 28th July 2007, 01:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saint

Hi Satya,

Correct if you are comfortable with it.This is what I meant by "discomfort" levels that day.The markets are dumping but you are no where near your pivot stop,so you hold.Your mind is counting the amount of "potential gains" lost.Basically,you leave quite a bit on the table in a bid to stay with the trend as long as possible.You are out only when trends confirm so.

A piece of advice:We stay with the trend as much as possible,but have a look at the charts...........as discussed before in the other thread,the trendlines get steeper and steeper,as excited greedy money gets in.If such a scenario occurs -----all time highs,multiple positive weeks in a row,divergences on many indicators,price still shooting to new highs,trendlines getting steeper,-----get out on the break of the green trendline and look to reenter later.

We should have got out at 4555 and below.......in this case,a gap down and therefore get out at the open.

If you are a hard core pivots player,you are now watching,and out totally at 4452.

All the best!
Saint

Thanks Saint for a great post.Good to have you back and posting again.

Regds,
Anu

Dhanya · #**3903** 28th July 2007, 01:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saint

Sorry Shashank abt the late reply........well,nobody can really answer that one......and anybody who does needs a clobberring.But the question really is:Why bother at all?Have a few rules and try to ride the trend,upwards and downwards.........of what use is it if I were to tell you that "Market has huge support at 20ema at abcd,if abcd is broken,next strong support is efgh,if that is cracked,we may see ijkl,I don't think even efgh will be broken,but no way ijkl.I feel we will correct to abcd and then we will see new highs"[taken from some eminent fool from cnbc]

And what do we do?We say that "Wow,Mr Eminent said that markets may fall to abcd,and true enough it bounced from there,and then it fell to efgh,and then we did get a bounce from there,but markets finally made a bottom at ijkl........he is truly great!!"

That then is the crucial difference between the person who trades and the person who talks...............Mr Eminent has covered all his bases.Then he goes around saying,"Didn't I tell you?I told you all so.I told you that Market can go up if it goes above xyzz levels,and if it goes down,we could either go to abcd,efgh,or ijkl levels......Hah!!Told you all so.I am the greatest!!!.....Now would you like to join up for my seminar??"

Therefore,Mr Eminent who comes on CNBC or anywhere is always right,whatever happens to the market.............now the question is:How do YOU make money from the trends that play out in the markets?

What ever your modus operandi ............your efforts are to determine the end of an uptrend,and therefore to stop out,and short in a confirmed downtrend and vice versa.Forget all anticipation,and prediction,and where this decline will end...........If you are short,you could use the levels to take profits,but,if you are long and hoping and praying,and using these levels to comfort yourself,so that you can sleep tonight......Careful,my friend!!

So the answer to your question,in summary,is:The Market will go as low as it goes to a point where Demand steps in........our job as traders is to latch on to the trend and hold on as long as possible.

All the best!
Saint

Excellent post,Saint.Thank you!!

Regds,
Dhanya

Dhanya · #**3904** 28th July 2007, 01:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lvgandhi

I also would like to second this. As second is done, I will third it!

Could I fourth it,if possible?

Dhanya

Dhanya · #**3905** 28th July 2007, 01:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saint

Yes,Dhanya.......stops are at xyz area.Once xyz is taken out,we are out.......sometimes,it pulls below that area and makes a comeback.Never mind.....then look to reenter.But waiting another 150 pts from our stop and then hoping and praying it closes well......no way!

If we are out,we are out..........no compromises,nothing.

Saint

Thanks Saint.

In all the panic,my brain stopped working.So,thanks for clarifying that in the nick of time.

Thanks once again,
Dhanya

phoenix · #**3906** 28th July 2007, 01:33 AM

We have the DOW closing 200 pts down today,down 4% for the week.

This Monday is going to be exciting!

Satyen · #**3907** 28th July 2007, 10:25 AM

hi Saint yesterday we hit the last pivot and also closed below that ........ now downtrend started ... then when we should short ... should we wait for rally which may make lower pivot high and then break of pivot low to short or simply we short yesterday as it hit the last pivot

waiting your reply

Regards
Satya

rajesh.sadhanala · #**3908** 28th July 2007, 01:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by satya_pinku2003

hi Saint yesterday we hit the last pivot and also closed below that ........ now downtrend started ... then when we should short ... should we wait for rally which may make lower pivot high and then break of pivot low to short or simply we short yesterday as it hit the last pivot

waiting your reply

Regards
Satya

Downtrend haven't started yet. The uptrend line is broken as off now and it is in question. Still we are not sure of downtrend unless we have rally below the higher high and falls below lower low. Saint will explain more precisely.

Raj

Saint · #**3909** 28th July 2007, 11:54 PM

Thanks everyone for your kind words!

All the best!
Saint

Saint · #**3910** 29th July 2007, 12:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by satya_pinku2003

hi Saint yesterday we hit the last pivot and also closed below that ........ now downtrend started ... then when we should short ... should we wait for rally which may make lower pivot high and then break of pivot low to short or simply we short yesterday as it hit the last pivot

waiting your reply

Regards
Satya

Quote:

Downtrend haven't started yet. The uptrend line is broken as off now and it is in question. Still we are not sure of downtrend unless we have rally below the higher high and falls below lower low. Saint will explain more precisely.

Raj

There are many answers to that question,Satya.The final answer would be to do what suits you best.

Basically,what do we have?We have a primary uptrend,an intermediate uptrend,but daily uptrend just got cracked.Means nothing till the markets do what Raj describes.Even if that happens,what then do we have........a dntrend on the daily charts,but still holding up the uptrend on the longer term charts.

Now as we had discussed earlier,we have an intermediate uptrend,with a daily charts going increasingly vertical......therefore when we get a break of that uptrendline,we are out.We wait now......We are not bearish yet.Why not?We still have an intermediate uptrend in progress,and we don't want to mess with that.What we are looking for is the daily charts to give us an indication to go long again.

So,our strategy now:We wait .......if you are a longer term player to go long again.The latest pivot low on the weekly is 4100,means whatever the daily does,we wait till that opportune moment gives us an indication to go long again.

On the other hand,if over the next few weeks of volatility gives us a lower pivot high on the weekly and then a lower pivot low,breaking that previous pivot low would be a cue to get in short.

For now,we wait.........

Can you get in and capitalise on a short following the daily dntrend.......sure,no harm in taking a swing short once a daily dntrend is confirmed but be fully aware that we are still very much in an intermediate uptrend.Always more volatile till all time frames are in agreement........

So,for the newcomers and the intermediate trend traders,more a time to sit out and wait till we start buying in again.The more advanced and swing traders can try to capitalise on this down move.........but the important thing to keep in mind:The intermediate uptrend is still on,and with that in mind,trade your timeframe.

All the best!
Saint

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