New Intermed Uptrend!!

Hi Saint,

Many Thanx for your views. I was able to understand your comments on NTPC and PATELENG but in POLARIS I am a little confused.

On weekly it had a nice intermediate rally from 80 to 143 and then it pulled back. So shouldn't we wait for it to take out 143 level and look to buy above it.

Awaiting your comments .

Thanx for encouragement, have learnt a great deal from your thread "Teach a man to fish....".

Cheers,
Ashish.

Hi Navneet,

Nice one on HCC so far(presuming HCC is Hind Construction)........great going!!Raise your stops to the low of 2 bars back on the weekly charts i.e 131.5,meaning whatever this market or this stock does,you are walking away with money in the pockets.

Every week when a new high is made,raise the stops as prescibed above.......basically do whatever it takes to stay with the trend and to let your profits ride without giving too much of it back as well in a trend reversal.

ANDHRA PETRO:At present,is in a sideways to down move,keep out of this slish slosh.Enter at 16.5 ,after it has clearly taken out previous pivot highs on the weekly,and giving clear cut signals on its intention to move up.Enter with a stop at 12,share sizing as always important.

VULCAN :Sideways slish slosh,all over the place....leave it alone!

All the best!

Saint

Hi Ashish,

Posts like these are what gives me encouragement.....Thank you.

Sometimes when one has been looking at charts for such a long time,one gets a feel for the next move.........and yet anticipating anything tantamounts to prediction,and that is one very huge taboo word as far as I am concerned.Wrong on my part,my friend,sincere apologies.

Now let us get to Polaris again........Polaris is in a primary bear market.So far we have had lower pivot highs and low on the monthly charts.Even while the rest of the market has been in Bull territory,this one has been in a Bear Hug.And as we know bearish declines are times when we short rallies,and at max go long on a very short term basis.We need a clean break over 158.We then get to say that Bulls are slowly and steadily making a comeback in this one.When that happens we get to say that we may be in a trend reversal to the up.When that happens ,our strategy would be to buy declines or breakouts or whatever the strategy might be..............but not before we can safely say that we are in an uptrend.

Strategically,if you are an intermed to long term trader,you would stay out of this one.You would wait for 158 to be breached before you would think of getting long.If you are a short term trader,you could buy a mini pullback over the next few days with a stop at 115,and add over 143......and if you were a short term trader that suddenly decided to become an intermed one ,you would love the breakout past 158(if that does happen) and probably add in all declines on the weekly chart.

Sticking by one's disciplines is important.........if you are the type that waits for the pullback,and then you buy the breakout with stops at previous pivot lows,Great!No harm in that......On the other hand,if you are the type that will take a small position and then add with the breakout,no harm in that as well.So that's your call to take...........

One more doubt that may just crop up is :Why 158?Why not 143?

Take your weekly charts...Polaris made a lower pivot high in April 17th week in 2004,and then a lower pivot low in May 2004,the next lower pivot high came in Dec 2004,followed by a lower pivot low in May 2005.The next lower pivot high came in September 2005 (158),notice that it didn't make lower pivot lows as it was basically trading in a triangle.Then the lower pivot lows in June2006,so disregard all the pivot highs made in the triangle.......The last lower pivot high that is the peak to cross is that one from Sept 2005 of 158,and a decisive break to the up over 158 is a signal of bulls wresting control from the bears.

Alright,my friend,thank you for all your words of appreciation.Gotta go now.Yawn!!

All the Best!
Happy Trading!!
Saint

Hi Saint,

Great explanation on Polaris!

I like your use of different time frames for making decisions.
Right now i keep my trend indicators on the Weekly (and Momentum on the daily). So as long as say the MACD is above the signal line (& no big negative divergence viz a viz prices) i reckon i am safe.
Also if i am planning to enter a stock the next day i have a look at the price movement on the 60 min charts, particularly the last 1-2 hrs.
But as of now i do not pay much heed to price movements on the Weekly. For that i look mostly at the Daily. But reading your posts i realize it is important to look at the price picture on the Weekly as well before deciding on an entry.

Thanks,
Kalyan.

Thanks, Saint.
Hope I am now bombarding you with lots of queries. Find ur discussions quite helpful and interesting.
Your advise was very helpful, as well read ur views on Polaris.
Would like ur views on Mysore Cement and South Indian bank- it has shown good quaterly results. Mysore Cement: was trading on 65.85 for more than week and now it is on Rs.62.00

Can you please take a look at the following stocks---whenever you have time---Micro Tech, Maloo Paper, Rajesh Exports, and Media Video;
especially Maloo Papers, which had a strong breakout---would like to add more.

Thanks,
Best Regards,
Kumar

Hi Saint,
Any view on ROLTA? It appears a break out may happen any moment. Stock zoomed up on 8-th despite market weakness.

Wait lemme try this one!

A buy above 266 with a SL at 247 eh Saint?

If you want to be doubly sure buy above 275.

And it's Fundamentally sound with good valuation viz a viz it's peers A brkout is overdue. One of the best companies in Asia in the Engg/Design services outsourcing space. The company will also benefit from the Indo-US nuclear deal (which probably is the trigger for Friday's spurt) as it already has a tie-up with & provides tech support to an US nuclear tech company. Also doing some great work for Indian defense.

Negatives (also reasons for relative undervaluation) :-
Has a high Debt-Equity ratio (i.e. has quite a bit of debt in its books) but has recently raised money through an ADR (ADR prc 250 when quoting at around 200 in domestic mkts) which will reduce debts; but still do not expect the valuations of an Infy (virtually debt free & plenty of free cash flows) for this company as yet That may happen 2-3 yrs down the line.
Also had some issues with corporate governance in the past but the mgmt has been revamped since then and this negative perception is gradually receding.

And the ongoing move is after a good consolidation on the Weekly.

And it's shown a lovely steady upmove on the hourly on good volumes.

And MACD above signal line & moving up on the Weekly.
TRIX on a clear uptrend.
ADX above 30 +DI abv -DI Two diverging.
ACC-DISTR showing acuumulation OBV looks good.
Slow Stochastic %K, %D xover happened 2 days back now both moving up.
12 day RSI gave buy signal on the same day Now crossed centre line (50)

6 ema (just) abv 12 ema (both moving up)
12 ema (just) abv 20 ema (both moving up)
20 ema abv 50 ema (both moving up)
Price abv all emas (crossed 12 ema on Friday)

May face Bollinger band resistance at 268-269 So buy on an i-day pullback from this level.
Intraday Resist 269, 274
Support 255, 247

WARNING : A little volatile when it's on the move & tends to have low delivery volumes (though improving in recent times - fund buying?)

OOPS ... that's as far as i can go!

Srinivasants don't believe me! Wait for Saint's reply.

Regards,
Kalyan.

Disclaimer : Personally hold the stock bought at 245.

Hi Kalyan,
Thanx for ur excellent analysis. I am expecting a resistence around 270. May break out if n-deal hurdles are crossed in the parliament. Laso waiting for Saint's views.

Hi Kalyan,

Actually would not have entered at all.Basically it had gone 6 bars in a row forming higher low bars on the weekly charts.Always in such times,better to wait for a pullback before doing anything abt it.

But,great analysis,my friend.....Thank You

All the best!
Saint