New Intermed Uptrend!!

joy_mitali · #**301** 20th August 2005, 12:27 AM

Hi Kravindran,
Impossible to comment---unless---u specify the prices at which u have bought the calls and holding them----For even though the scrips may do well----u may not be able to come out of the traps---considering Time---decay considerations---
Hope u do not misunderstand(Nothing wrong even---if u do not wish to disclose the prices at which u have bought them)----but then simple soothing words can only give u solace---nothing more----
Regards,
joy_mitali

Karuna · #**302** 20th August 2005, 07:43 AM

Hi Joy_Mitali,

No problem about sharing the prices. Here they are :

KtkBank - 10 (bought on 1-8)
SBI - 31.95 (2-8, bought 2 lots)
Allahabad Bank - 6.40 (11-8)
Syndicate Bank - 3.70 (12-8)

Thanks
Karuna

Saint · #**303** 20th August 2005, 12:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by neeraj4u

hi Saint

I have tried to do the analysis of Vijaya bank. Pl correct me where i am wrong and give your opinion about the same. It will be highly useful for my learning.

On daily chart, it has formed a right angle triangle and seems to be on a breakout on the upper side.
On weekly it has confirmed it's upward trend by making higher pivot low and high.
On monthy charts also it seems to be on long time uptrend.

Pl give your suggestion.

thanx

Neeraj

Hi Neeraj,
Great going,my friend............VIJAYA BANK is forming one huge ascending triangle on the daily,weekly charts.Higher pivot lows within that triangle.An end of week closing over 75 is confirmation of a bullish breakout from that triangle.How do we enter this trade?Few ways:

1.After the breakout,enter on a pullback and ride the trend.(nb: pullback should not take out the low of the breakout bar)

2.After the breakout,if consolidates sideways,enter if it breaks the high of those bars.

3.After the breakout, buy the high of that breakout bar if taken out and ride the momentum move up.

4.Or you could enter here ,slosh around for a few weeks to maybe months but you are part of that breakout when it happens.That's what I do.But you must be willing to sit it out for a while.Eg HMT,MAHINDRA GESCO,ABB all nice ascending triangles....had to wait weeks though,but the breakout was rewarding!

Happy Trading!!
Saint

Saint · #**304** 20th August 2005, 12:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kravindran

Dear Amitbe & Saint,

Holding August call options of

SBI-800
Karnataka Bank-125
Allahabad Bank-90
Syndicate Bank-80

Any chance of these scrips doing well before expiry ???
Lot of money stuck in the above.

Pls advise. V worried.

Thanks,
Karuna

Hi Karuna,
The right person to ask about options would be Joy or Wastej.....Am glad Joy 's already looking into it.

All the best!
Saint

neeraj4u · #**305** 20th August 2005, 12:42 PM

Thanx saint for your reply and also for your article on How to decide, how many shares to buy. That is really useful for starters like me.

cheers

Neeraj

roneeth · #**306** 20th August 2005, 12:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saint

Hi Neeraj,
Great going,my friend............VIJAYA BANK is forming one huge ascending triangle on the daily,weekly charts.Higher pivot lows within that triangle.An end of week closing over 75 is confirmation of a bullish breakout from that triangle.How do we enter this trade?Few ways:

1.After the breakout,enter on a pullback and ride the trend.(nb: pullback should not take out the low of the breakout bar)

2.After the breakout,if consolidates sideways,enter if it breaks the high of those bars.

3.After the breakout, buy the high of that breakout bar if taken out and ride the momentum move up.

4.Or you could enter here ,slosh around for a few weeks to maybe months but you are part of that breakout when it happens.That's what I do.But you must be willing to sit it out for a while.Eg HMT,MAHINDRA GESCO,ABB all nice ascending triangles....had to wait weeks though,but the breakout was rewarding!

Happy Trading!!
Saint

Hello Saint !

Very well analysed.....Thanks for all your posts...filled with loads of knowledge.

Regards

Roneeth

roneeth · #**307** 20th August 2005, 12:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by neeraj4u

hi Saint

I have tried to do the analysis of Vijaya bank. Pl correct me where i am wrong and give your opinion about the same. It will be highly useful for my learning.

On daily chart, it has formed a right angle triangle and seems to be on a breakout on the upper side.
On weekly it has confirmed it's upward trend by making higher pivot low and high.
On monthy charts also it seems to be on long time uptrend.

Pl give your suggestion.

thanx

Neeraj

Hello Neeraj!

Very good analysis...

Thanks

Roneeth

neeraj4u · #**308** 20th August 2005, 12:55 PM

Thanx Roneeth

neeraj4u · #**309** 20th August 2005, 12:57 PM

Hi saint

I want to know one thing that how to decide the target. i.e how i will know that rally will lead to what prices or it is in terms of percentage from original bought price.

cheers

Neeraj

Saint · #**310** 20th August 2005, 01:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by neeraj4u

Hi saint

I want to know one thing that how to decide the target. i.e how i will know that rally will lead to what prices or it is in terms of percentage from original bought price.

cheers

Neeraj

Hi Neeraj,
Martin Pring in his book Tech Analysis Explained says that first draw the upper line and the lower line,all this you have already done and you got a triangle pattern.Now draw a parallel line to the base of the triangle and pass it through the highest peak(in Vijaya Bank's case-the April 04 peak),you'll get somewhere around 110-115.
John J Murphy in his book gives two methods,one the above method.Method 2:Take the highest peak in this case of Vij Bk,Apr 04 peak(75)Drop a vertical line to the base(somewhere about 34).The length of that line=75-34=41.Add 41 to breakout levels 75+41=116.

I'd be happy with 110....Target for Vijaya Bank is therefore 110.

Of course,now you calculate the reward to risk.In this case stop loss is at 55.Current levels is 66.Rew:Risk=more than 3:1.......so well worth the risk taken.Now calculate the share size as discussed above.As the trade progresses keep moving your stops up as higher pivots are made.

Hope this helped!
Happy Trading!!
Saint

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