NSE Nifty - New Intermediate Uptrend ??

NSE Nifty - New Intermediate Uptrend

The Nifty finnaly confirms the beginning a new intermediate uptrend by closing above its previous intermediate swing high (top) of 1626.00

This along with the final arrival of the monsoons could possibly trigger a new bull market which I am sure we are all awaiting.

After making a panic bottom of 1292.00 the Nifty has been consolidating between 1440 and 1626 ( which is also the top formed after the panic fall).

This consolidation has been going on for over 10 weeks. So a breakout of this consolidation should be good news for all trend traders and investors.

Consolidation: A generally lateral period of trading in terms of price. It is usually an interruption of an ongoing uptrend or downtrend, as opposed to a reversal type of pattern.

A term used mainly by technical analysts to refer to the movement of a stock's price within a well-defined pattern or barrier of trading levels.

The levels of resistance and support within the consolidation are created through the upper and lower bounds of the stock's price.

Congestion is usually referred to as a series of trading days in which no significant change in price occurs. Consolidation is a congestion period that is most like a pause that allows market participants to re-evaluate the market and the environment which leads market price. Upon a breakout of a congested period, a build up of orders outside of the congested area may add to the size of the breakout move. Resolution to a period of indecision or congestion often leads to a run in prices of various sizes. This is in fact a breakout of a congested period. It is important to examine periods of lower volatility when prices become congested in order to determine what may be a trigger point for prices breaking out of a congested area. Trendlines are often used to help identify the trading ranges and may upon penetration, become an early warning that a breakout may be in process. The longer the period of congestion, the more possibility there is for a build up of orders and thus a larger potential surge in volume on a breakout.

Now to get down to the business of stock selection.

See attached chart for a visual analysis of the consolidation and breakout.

Attached Images

nsenifty20040802.gif (24.0 KB, 60 views)

__________________
Best Wishes!

Traderji

www.Traderji.com

So Traderji, what is your stoploss level?

Keep your stoploss as 1585.00

__________________
Best Wishes!

Traderji

www.Traderji.com

And what would be the Targets of this upmove of the nifty after the 1626 breakout ??

See attached chart for technical target levels of the NSE Nifty in its recent upmove.

Attached Images

nsenifty20040804.gif (25.0 KB, 38 views)

VERY ACCURATE levels YOU HAVE GIVEN for the NSE Nifty TradersEdge,

The Nifty just stopped at 1627, the level you have mentioned in your attached chart.

What now??

Now that the Nifty has crossed 1627, it could find support there on the way down.

Is the new intermediate uptrend in nifty will sustain?.The bulls are not that strong,i dont say that the index will come down, but it may move in to side ways action,so be careful in taking long positions.any comments welcome

The BULLS clearly confirmed their strength today!

There is an interesting saying among most profitable technical traders:

"The Charts Never Lie"

Lets hope this remains true..

Bulls fight back after a weak opening

Shrugging off fears of high inflation and rising international oil prices, the market rebounded smartly, as buying resumed in blue chips at lower levels after early weakness. Down 42.67 points at one point, the 30-share BSE Sensitive index (Sensex) eventually ended with a gain of 36.22 points, or 0.70%, at 5,322.21.

The NSE S & P CNX Nifty index gained 9.20 points to end at 1,642.60.

The volumes on the bourses dropped. Turnover on BSE declined to Rs 1,734.14 crore from Rs 2,157.38 crore on Friday. Number of shares traded on BSE, slipped to 14.94 crore from 18.56 crore. On NSE, 28.13 crore (34.14 crore) shares worth Rs 4,063.34 crore (Rs 4,900.38 crore) were traded. In the derivatives segment of NSE, 263,889 (328,358) contracts worth Rs 7,801.28 crore (Rs 9,867 crore) were traded.

Hindalco (up 4.75% to Rs 1,101.95) firmed up – rising from the day’s low of Rs 1,043 – as buying resumed on the counter at lower levels after early weakness.

State Bank of India also bounced back from the day’s low of Rs 435.40 to Rs 461 before settling at Rs 457.80, up 3.75% over its previous close. Over 38 lakh SBI shares were traded on BSE today.

Private sector banking pivotals ICICI Bank (up 1.60% to Rs 276.90) and HDFC Bank (up 0.53% to Rs 368.20) also ended with modest gains on fresh buying after early weakness.

Bhel (up 4.36% to Rs 580) gained further ground – rising from the day’s low of Rs 566.32 – as buying resumed on the counter after early weakness. From a recent low of Rs 446 touched on 14 June, the Bhel stock has risen 26.08% on the back of sustained inflow of orders.

Other power sector pivotals Tata Power (up 2.79% to Rs 270.70) and Reliance Energy (up 1.40% to Rs 587.05) also traded higher on fresh buying interest at lower levels after early weakness.

Two-wheeler major Hero Honda Motor rose from a low of Rs 442.50 to Rs 468 before settling at Rs 465.55, up 2.94% over its previous close. Over 3.45 lakh HHML shares were traded on BSE today.

Other automobile pivotals Bajaj Auto (up 1.72% to Rs 869.25), Maruti Udyog (up 0.84% to Rs 403.05) and Tata Motors (up 0.24% to Rs 426.15) also ended higher on fresh buying at lower levels after early weakness.

Cement pivotals Gujarat Ambuja Cements (up 1.98% to Rs 309.40) and ACC (down 1.53% to Rs 261.40) traded steady on sustained buying interest on the back of strong sales in July 2004, as a delay in monsoon rains kept construction activity at normal levels.

GACL’s dispatches jumped 20% to 11.43 lakh tonnes from 9.54 lakh tonnes in July 2003. Grasim's despatches spurted 12.5% to 11.41 lakh tonnes. And ACC’s dispatches rose 7.6% to 12.79 lakh tonnes.

Telecom pivotals Bharti Tele-Ventures (up 2.15% to Rs 152.20) and MTNL (up 1.10% to Rs 128.95) rose on value buying after recent fall from the higher levels.

Tech pivotals Wipro (up 1.32% to Rs 558.05) and Infosys Tech (up 0.57% to Rs 1,535.05) ended with modest gains on fresh buying at lower levels after early weakness.

Pharma pivotals Dr Reddy’s Labs (up 1.26% to Rs 782.85), Ranbaxy Labs (up 0.85% to Rs 952.10) and Cipla (up 0.45% to Rs 244.30) also attracted fresh buying at lower levels after early weakness.

Zee Telefilms (down 2.37% to Rs 131.65) lost further ground as selling pressure continued on the counter, with over 5.55 lakh shares traded on BSE. From a recent high of Rs 148.40 touched on 27 July, the Zee Telefilms stock has declined 11.28% on sustained selling pressure.