Confused !!!

Niranjanam

Well-Known Member
#1
Lately I have started some option analysis and have gone through many threads. Decisions are mostly made on the basis of OI analysis rather than charts, it seems. OI, Change in OI, PCR, Maximum pain etc are the major tools rather than the chart of underlying.

In my understanding the entire analysis depends on option writing. This is because Option writers are considered as players with deeper pockets who can move the markets. For example

if 8300PE has highest open interest, traders perceive it as important support for the time being.Keeping in view that most institutional investors write options rather than buy, the data helps to understand mood of ‘intelligent money’. Similarly if huge open interest is built for 8600 calls it will be seen as major resistance zone. If the expiry is near then the market may stay range bound between these two levels so that sellers can eat the premium. Am I right?

Later I stumbled upon this data related to FII ( Click to read). Surprisingly I found almost always FIIs are net option buyers. Most of the days they pay premium rather than collect it. They buy more contracts than they sell.I could not find the data related to DII. But I think they cant be different

If so the very basic assumption of Option analysis gets invalidated. Retail write more options than institutions.Then the Big boys plan could be different. that is to inflict maximum damage to retailers by moving price near or beyond these levels forcing them to buy back at higher prices.

I am just a beginner and struggling to understand the big picture. Option experts, Kindly guide.
 

stock72

Well-Known Member
#2
I have a question here ..

The below analysis made with a basic assumption that the total trading force (FII +DII= retailers ..
Is that assumption is correct ? Else the market being moved towards or against a strike level between the FII and DII guys itself and we retailers some times correct and some times wrong


Lately I have started some option analysis and have gone through many threads. Decisions are mostly made on the basis of OI analysis rather than charts, it seems. OI, Change in OI, PCR, Maximum pain etc are the major tools rather than the chart of underlying.

In my understanding the entire analysis depends on option writing. This is because Option writers are considered as players with deeper pockets who can move the markets. For example

if 8300PE has highest open interest, traders perceive it as important support for the time being.Keeping in view that most institutional investors write options rather than buy, the data helps to understand mood of ‘intelligent money’. Similarly if huge open interest is built for 8600 calls it will be seen as major resistance zone. If the expiry is near then the market may stay range bound between these two levels so that sellers can eat the premium. Am I right?

Later I stumbled upon this data related to FII ( Click to read). Surprisingly I found almost always FIIs are net option buyers. Most of the days they pay premium rather than collect it. They buy more contracts than they sell.I could not find the data related to DII. But I think they cant be different

If so the very basic assumption of Option analysis gets invalidated. Retail write more options than institutions.Then the Big boys plan could be different. that is to inflict maximum damage to retailers by moving price near or beyond these levels forcing them to buy back at higher prices.

I am just a beginner and struggling to understand the big picture. Option experts, Kindly guide.
 

Niranjanam

Well-Known Member
#3
I have a question here ..

The below analysis made with a basic assumption that the total trading force (FII +DII= retailers ..
Is that assumption is correct ? Else the market being moved towards or against a strike level between the FII and DII guys itself and we retailers some times correct and some times wrong
FII+DII cover most of the big boys who trade big volume. There will be pooled private funds and HNI category for which separate data is not available. I could not find DII data also. No other way but to categorize all others as retailers.
Big money is not always smart money. Big money too loses. They are not always on the right side of the move.It is not my assumption. World over markets are portrayed as Institutions V/S retailers where retail get robbed
 
#4
@Niranjanam

Option strategies are the answer to your query. As we have a member here, which is called "Dax Devil", which has posted in the past in different threads that shorting options is with out any risk, I am sure he will be able to answer your query very easily by telling you in this case what option strategy is used to handle the risk also on the long side. So let's wait what he is going to post here and then let's analyze it.

By the way: You do fine in your link. :thumb:
 

Niranjanam

Well-Known Member
#5
@Niranjanam

Option strategies are the answer to your query. As we have a member here, which is called "Dax Devil", which has posted in the past in different threads that shorting options is with out any risk, I am sure he will be able to answer your query very easily by telling you in this case what option strategy is used to handle the risk also on the long side. So let's wait what he is going to post here and then let's analyze it.

By the way: You do fine in your link. :thumb:
Actually my confusion is not about any strategy but on the basic underlying assumption on which these strategies and tactics are based.All the option literature recognizes the writers as the dominant force in markets and all the future moves are projected based on their actions.

FII and DII together own majority stake in almost all the Indian companies and they are responsible for most of the volume traded here. If they are not the big boys then who are?If Institutions are net option buyers then who are the option sellers? Do they have the money power to move markets and decide where to expire?
Am I missing something?
 
#6

All the option literature recognizes the writers as the dominant force
in markets and all the future moves are projected based on their actions.
Aha, and where did you get that one from, especially the part in bold? Kindly come up with as many books and articles who even can prove that in debt. ;)
 

Niranjanam

Well-Known Member
#7
Aha, and where did you get that one from, especially the part in bold? Kindly come up with as many books and articles who even can prove that in debt. ;)
Nobody has told this directly. But that is what I have understood reading OI analysis.

Option pricing is very complex, I know. Movement of the underlying and other Greeks affects it . I am yet to learn all those things. My doubt is regarding the OI analysis and I think the weightage is towards the seller

For example 8600 calls have the highest open interest. It is assumed that 8600 will act as resistance and price is likely to remain below it. All these calls sold were purchased by another group and they expect price to move above 8600. But no weightage is given to their view.

Most of the options expire worthless. So more weightage is given to the seller, I think.
 
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copypasteaee

Humbled by Markets
#9
DII are not allowed to work in FnO. may be some one can clarify.
 

Niranjanam

Well-Known Member
#10
About what time frame does your above post talk? and even your first post in this thread?
I am looking for some positional trades. So far I have tried only pure vanilla calls and puts. Decision making is purely based on Nifty chart. Thought of going for some spreads where I am not very confident of a directional move. So far I was not able make this OI data effectively. Nifty stalls and reverses at its own supports and resistances. OI shifts as it moves. Really wonder whether OI is worth monitoring during these kind of trades
 

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