TrackNifty Expiry Forecast

Hi,

I have developed a formula for expiry forecast.

And daily I will post it here.

This formula finds where Nifty future is likely to expire and compares it to latest close of Nifty future.

Future close 5853.95

Expiry expected 5977.21

Have you tested this for last 6-8 months ?If so what are the results ? Does expiry forecast change everyday ? If one can forecast in +/- 20 points range in even last 4-5 days it will be a moneyspinner.

Smart_trade

Was working on it for long time, and started from Feb 2013.
Expiry sheet


Chart clearly shows fut do tend to come to touch expiry level.
Latest chart :


Last 4 days expiry level hasn't changed at all despite market fall, in fact it has moved up. Lets see what happens.

Expiry shifted downwards by 8 points to 5969 today.

Is this correct? Your excel sheet in above post shows expiry level as 5888....

what is this based on?
and what is the rationale for this strategy of yours?

one more thing, how to interpret the parameters in your sheet