PUT and CALL options

I trade in OPTIONS only.

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columbus

Well-Known Member
NOV.21 nov-Series.15 MON Nifty=7929 PCR (OI)=0.54

PCR (OI)=0.54

Perhaps WORST pcr recorded in last couple of years. (or more..?)
 

travi

Well-Known Member
For PCR(OI) of BN is ~0.67 :D

That itself like the Nifty 0.54 is very gloomy.

The OI and change in OI (COI) for the calls is concentrated OTM at 19k and 19.5k
However, the rare sight, OI built for the puts is a big chunk ITM at 18.5k and 19k and just one concentration at 18k.
I would happily be proven wrong, but, I don't think the bulls will go home with a lousy expiry this THU. The setup is like a 500pt BN rally somewhere in these days like a Bear Trap :lol:
 

columbus

Well-Known Member
NOV.23 nov-Series.17 WED Nifty=8033 PCR (OI)=0.54

NOV.23 nov-Series.17 WED Nifty=8033 PCR (OI)=0.54

Once again PCR-OI falls to 0.54.
 

columbus

Well-Known Member
Re: NOV.24 nov-Series.18 THRUS Nifty=7965 PCR (OI)=1.03

Couple of lower values were found in my database.

0.57......penultimate day of AUG-15 series.
0.58 .....penultimate day of FEB.16 series.

Next day PCR value bounced back.( from 0.57 to 1.01 and 0.58 to 0.93)
Yesterday's low value of 0.54, PCR (OI) bounced back to 1.03 today.

After recording lower values in AUG.15 , SENSEX fell afterwards.

After recording lower values in FEB.16 , SENSEX looked like this:

 
Re: NOV.24 nov-Series.18 THRUS Nifty=7965 PCR (OI)=1.03

Yesterday's low value of 0.54, PCR (OI) bounced back to 1.03 today.
Today being the expiry, let's not put much store by this figure.

Anyway, December is a longer series, surely there will be zig zag moves, most likely some upside in the beginning of the month, then a decline, and then the year end rally.
 

columbus

Well-Known Member
NOV.24 nov-Series.18 THRUS Nifty=7965 PCR (OI)=1.03







Nifty ended on 7965 in nov.16 series.


Worst performance in last 2 years or more with SENSEX and Nifty losing over
7% in this series.

Following FACTORS took heavy toll on the market:

1.Ongoing MONETIZATION
2.Dollar Rate
3.Trump victory
4.Indication that FED is going to increase rates .....etc


The ongoing monetization is going to affect INFLATION very badly.
 
Re: NOV.24 nov-Series.18 THRUS Nifty=7965 PCR (OI)=1.03

Today being the expiry, let's not put much store by this figure.

Anyway, December is a longer series, surely there will be zig zag moves, most likely some upside in the beginning of the month, then a decline, and then the year end rally.
I have been noticing Bullish Harami in Nifty Daily Chart. Nifty has already formed a bullish harami, with 3 candles inside the body of the big red candle. According to me, this will be a start of an uptrend. RSI and stochastic indicators are also supporting this move. 15ema, Tenken (Ichimoku) is at the range of 8190. So if it is indeed a bullish harami, we will have a good 200 points move upward.

But not having traded this pattern before, I do not know what the stop loss of this trade will be. I think the low of the big red candle will be the stop loss for this trade, if taken.
 
Re: NOV.24 nov-Series.18 THRUS Nifty=7965 PCR (OI)=1.03

The ongoing monetization is going to affect INFLATION very badly.
Contrarily, I think that the lower cash supply will have a disinflationary effect. Let's see how it unfolds.
 

columbus

Well-Known Member
Re: NOV.24 nov-Series.18 THRUS Nifty=7965 PCR (OI)=1.03

I have been noticing Bullish Harami in Nifty Daily Chart. Nifty has already formed a bullish harami, with 3 candles inside the body of the big red candle. According to me, this will be a start of an uptrend. RSI and stochastic indicators are also supporting this move. 15ema, Tenken (Ichimoku) is at the range of 8190. So if it is indeed a bullish harami, we will have a good 200 points move upward.

But not having traded this pattern before, I do not know what the stop loss of this trade will be. I think the low of the big red candle will be the stop loss for this trade, if taken.
"...................big red candle. According to me, this will be a start of an uptrend. RSI and stochastic indicators are also supporting this move......"

Looks like it is OK.FED hike is already factored in.
Parliament session is underway. Monetisation can turn UGLY or BETTER.
So better to be light on positions ,with no overnight positions. (Personal view)
 

columbus

Well-Known Member
NOV.26 Dec-Series.1 FRI Nifty=8114 PCR (OI)=1.11





HTML:
Series           May.16   Jun.16   Jul.16  Aug.16  Sep.16  Oct.16  Nov.16
Average nifty    ----     8188     8498    8632    8772    8667     8294
Average PCR      0.89     1.23     1.14    0.91    1.24    1.07     0.82
Nifty Close      8070     8288     8666    8592    8591    8615     7965
]Nifty
====
Nifty is on Primary axis.
PCR (OI) & PCR (volume) are on Secondary axis.
AVG= Average of the current Series.



PCR
===
Generally, a lower reading (0.6 approximately) of the ratio reflects a bullish sentiment among investors as they buy
more calls, anticipating an uptrend. Conversely, a higher reading (1.20 approximately) of the ratio indicates a bearish
sentiment in the market. However, the ratio is considered to be a contrarian indicator, so that an extreme
reading above 1.0 is actually a bullish signal, and vice versa.....wikipedia

VIX
===
VIX has inverse relation to market.High value when market is down ,Low value when market is up.



Expected zone of NIFTY as per today's Open Interest is as follows is:
(8300~8000) .
open interest less than 1.7 Million (Approx.)(Total-OI) is uncoloured.

Current strike of Nifty is 8100 .

White letters on Dark back ground indicate Options with Price less than Rs.20.
White letters on Grey back ground indicate Options with Price Between Rs.20~30. (if any)


Open Interest (Today) over 5 Lakhs shown in WHITE letters with black background . (If any)
Open Interest (Today) less than -5 Lakhs is in WHITE letters with green background . (If any)

The bars in PRICE and IMP.VOL are plotted ,taking into account both CALL and PUT strikes.

6 CALL strikes and 7 PUT strikes are taken for study.

HTML:
Up-coming important events 
==========================
nov.30   wed   GDP
dec.7    wed   RBI interest decision
dec.11   sun   IIP (oct)
dec.14   wed   Inflation
dec.15   thrus FED rate decision

HOLIDAYS
========
The option chain of Dec.2016 based on today's OI looked like this :

 
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