Predicting nifty expiry

Guys,
How can we predict near months expiry value of nifty.
1.By seeing highest number of OI in put and call, from this we can come to vague idea that between highest put and call the month may expire.
Then what else, please provide your insight
Anyone what's sweet spot?

Regards
Talon

Talon,

I am in a similiar pursuit and from what I have observed (please note I started with options very recently) is that a PCR at various strike prices hold significance only if they are in double digits (i.e, >=10). Hence this could give you an idea of support and resistance levels.

Going to the original quesiton on the extract price for expiry - well the pursuit is on.

Plz chk out this thread where this topic was discussed some time back.

http://www.traderji.com/options/34089-tracking-put-call-open-interest.html

In my view, this approach of analysing mkt range based on mkt PCR or individual strike PCR is not very reliable. But it certainly helps in assessing the undercurrent of market.
As we approach expiry, the reliability goes up.. but if new trend develops during the expiry week, the individual strike PCRs can change within hours.

All the best for your pursuit.

Happy Trading

Let us know if u succeed in this quest...

Thanks for your inputs.
My observation:
There are around 1000 hedge funds sitting in India and none of them are Indians
Interpretation:
These are those people sitting all over globe and they are the market movers.I believe that the option writers(big players) are the smartest people, so they factor all the fundamentals, Geo politics,technical and all other parameters and they accordingly play the writing, so if you follow behind the big fish you are always on the right direction, so closely watching option writers will give us a great probability of success.
Prediction
Nifty Feb 2010 should expire between 4800 - 4900, lets see

-Talon