Covered Options

rkkarnani

Well-Known Member
#1
Trying to learn about Covered Options. Request seniors to post their views :

Buy IFCI Sep Futures @ 66/-

Sell IFCI Sep Rs.70/- CALL at Rs.3/-

My query :
a. What would be the margine required for such a combined position???

b. Is the following correct :

My BEP is : 63/- on the lower side. (Rs.66/- minus Rs.3/-)

At 70 and above my max profit is capped at Rs.7/-X lot size (70-66=4/-+3/-=7/-)

I do not loose if IFCI closes above 63/-

Brokerage etc. not taken into account.

Regards.
 
#2
Let me take a stab at it. The first thing I would do is to anaylze the charts to get a good idea of support and resistance- here is the link, I prefer candle charts

http://www.icharts.in/charts.html

This stock has support at 50- and if you want to be more nuanced slightly above 55 is the first support. It is fairly obvious there is strong resistance at 70. First You need to have a trading plan ( I would suggest you write it down- as we are emotional people and we react!). Write down what you expect and what you feel you are risking versus the reward for this.

The stock has been sideway for a while- but for a 6 month view- it has an distinct uptrend ( I think there is some talk of a stake sale etc- and you need to monitor that)

Now let us be clear- in terms of delta/Position delta buying futures is pretty similar to buying stock- ie let us say market lot is 100 then you buy 1 IFCI lot- you have 100 deltas positive ( for your position)

Here is where you need to be careful- the selection of strike price. Your choice of 70 is good- since it is a serious resistance level. But you have to know that the delta will be less than 0.5- infact may be about 0,35 or so.
So if you sold 1 contract ( and let me assume 100 shares cover an option)- your PD ( position delta) will be 0.35 * 100- ie 35- which you are now short.

What I would like you to consider- and I am just meaning this as unpaid advice- so do what you need to do- try and match up the deltas- ie you are 100 deltas long but only 35 deltas short- consider selling 2 option contracts or perhaps 3. - that way you have bought 100 deltas and sold 100 deltas( approx)- effectively you are delta neutral? what does that mean- as long as you maintain this you will lock in the premium you got- and market movement will not affect what you made ( of course minus transaction costs- which I think you need to check !).

As long as you monitor your situation- and adjust the deltas to match up- you will not have to worry about the stock movement- of course what you want to happen is the stock just ends at 70!

Let us assume what if the stock tanks to 55- You basically should sell more calls against your position- and continue to match up the deltas till expiration. ( because the deltas of calls you sold already will go down as now they are more out of the money!) These sales will lower your breakeven so you can still continue if you still stick to your original belief.

This assumes you have adequate capital to re-adjust positions- and that is one of the keys for success- you just cannot wait and watch while things are happening to your position.

Delta neutral trading- is a good concept to learn, and you will have a good time doing it provided you stay within your limits. Again use stops- and restrict losses that you cannot afford - if your guess goes awry!


BTW- did you realize a secret- you could cut down on transaction costs by just selling a 65 Put- basically this is equivalent to what you are doing risk wise! I will explain that later.


You need to check IV's before you chose the strike price.
 

rkkarnani

Well-Known Member
#3
A very big thanks for this detailed reply. It would take me some time to slowly read and understand the things.
However I didnot consider the idea of selling just a Rs.65 PUT (would have been able to sell at Rs.5/-) your pointing it out is making me think about it. The first impression I get is that my profit is limited to Rs.5/- instead of Rs.7/- where as my BEP gets reduced to Rs.60/-frm Rs.63/-.
I had visited your thread about IV, am still trying to understand the same. I may post my queries in reagrd to IV there.
However do request you to post the DETAILED (step wise) Calculation of IV of IFCI here or in your thread.
Thanks once again.
Regards.
-R.K.Karnani
 
#5
Regarding IV and Deltas of IFCI- I am using Options Oracle 1.2 - Seems reasonably good to me


For 70 Calls IV is 64.51
For 75 Calls IV is 65.34
For 80 Calls IV is 65.86

This has to be compared to the Historical Volatility to make sure we understand if these options are "cheap" or "expensive". I typically prefer a 50 day average. You can download data from NSE into a spreadsheet and have the answer in about 20 minutes.

Regarding greeks of the above calls ( september)

Strike Delta Gamma Vega Theta
70 0.381 0.035 0.065 -0.089
75 0.241 0.028 0.053 -0.073
80 0.141 0.02 0.038 -0.053

Also take a look at OCt calls

Oct 70 Calls is a IV of 40.04
Oct 75 is at IV of 60.12
Oct 80 us at IV of 107.44 ( price is Rs6 - check this it may not be current) - delta are 0.378, 0.32, 0.39 ( I am not sure of the 0.39- it should be lower) for Oct 70, 75, 80 Calls.

The reason I would consider Selling Oct 80 calls- instead of september 70- is their high IV ( please do check from live situation)- You get an extra room and a higher premium- In the same veirn I would not sell OCt 70 calls- because their IV is about 40, while the rest are at about 60 ( you need to check the HV to confirm that they are too low- no point in selling low IV calls - if IV shoots back up, your trade will be jeopardized.)but whatever you do understand and write down your thoughts- that discipline is important- and make sure you monitor your delta position.
 
#6
Also do take a look at IV of OCt Puts

I am getting for 45, 50, 55,60, 65 IV's of 105, 108, 112, 116, 121
'The 60 put is at 8.20
The 65 Put is 11.30.

The rationale of your trade is you expect the stock to stay between 68 and 70- by sept experation- risk wise ( I am talking financial risk) you should defintely explore sell a put- if you are not comfortable at 65 - look at the Oct 60 put.

The bottomline if you believe in prospects of IFCI beyond OCt- why not buy at a lower price ( or atleast commit)- if the stock does not fall to 60- you make out pretty decent money. I still am not sure about exercising in the money Puts you sell- but what basically you are doing is to offer to biy IFCI for a 10% discount- and someone is willing to pay 8.20 for that! ( please check the quote again)- that seems to be attractive to me.
 
#7
There are 3 big assumptions I am making

1, you understand how IFCI makes money ( fundamentals etc)
and you are aware of implications of any special situations ( I think they were selling a stake )
2. You are correct on your technical analysis ( ie range of where the stock might end up)

3. You have the trading capital- this is very important.

The point I was driving home in my earlier posts is that you have to do 1 and 2 above thorougly- then look at the IV and Greeks BEFORE you pick the strategy- you have to put the horse before the cart, not the other way around.

If I go with my technical assumptions of a 55 floor and a 70 resistance- depending on how margins work- I will even be considering selling the OCtober 80 strangle ( sell 80 call and sell 80 Put)- the point I am making is understand why I am suggesting that. A 40% volatility differential is VERY significant ( it does not tell you which direction the stock is moving)- at some point the volatility should get back to normal- let us assume 60 in this case! And trade within your means.
 
#8
I mentioned the OCt strangle incorrectly- that should read Sell OCt 80 Calls and sell Oct 55 Puts ( or even 50).

What I keep stressing overall- is the amount of information you are missing if you just trade using option prices. First of all using the IV's and greeks- you eliminate avoidable mistakes- that does not mean you make money but if you are right on the Motivation for the trade- and manage your money well- you will put yourself in a better slot.

This is like a guy having vision problems having a lasik surgery- the difference is immense!
 

rkkarnani

Well-Known Member
#9
Srikant, you have given a lot to chew on. Before I go ahead trying to understand your posts, please be kind enough to reply the following :
For calculating the HV would it be same if I check the 50 DMA(simple) in metastock , the same is 59.21 on 31st August. If I am correct , how does it affect the IV ????
 

rkkarnani

Well-Known Member
#10
Srikant,
As per NSE site in Oct series only one LOT of IFCI has been traded :
Oct series Rs.70/- Call at 2.40
My feeling is that its no use looking into Next month options at so early in the current month. There is no liquidity at all.
However your example does help in understanding the subjcet.
The Oct 80 strike call was not traded, someone was offering to sell at Rs.6/- but no transactions were done.
I once again thank you for your time and efforts.
Regards.
-R.K.Karnani