Systematic Investment Plan

[niranjan190]

SIP Vs OneTime Investment

It is well known fact that SIP (rupee cost averaging) is great for achieving good returns. It is better suited to volatile markets. In a bullish market SIP may not return best returns compared to

OneTime Investment. 2006 was a bullish year and the returns delivered from SIP are not the best compared to OneTime Investment.

Example:
Fund Name : Sensex Index Fund

OneTime Investment:
Investment Date : Jan 1, 2006
Investment Amount: Rs 1,20,000/-
Value on Jan 1, 2007 : Rs 1,72,653/-
Percentage Gain : 30.5 %

SIP:
Investment Amt: Rs 10000/- on 1st of Everymonth -Totalling Rs 1,20,000/-
Value on Jan 1, 2007 : Rs 1,46,643/-
Percentage Gain : 22.2 %

In the year 2006(bullish), SIP the above fund returned 22% as compared to 30% of OneTime Investment. So, it clearly shows that in a bullish market SIP might not be a best idea. But what happens if the market crashes the next day you have invested your money. , then SIP is the best one to average the cost.

To evaluate this, I have done a simulation on SIP and OneTime Investment. I'm pleased to provide the results. Please let me know your opinions on this.

Assumptions:
1. Market movement is assumed to be random with equal chance profit and loss
2. Monthly profit/loss range is limited to -10% to 10%
3. This analysis holds for period of 1 year

Method:
OneTime Investment:Rs 1,20,000 /- is invested at one go in the market at NAV of Rs 10/-
SIP : Montly Rs 1000/- is invested at NAV which is calculated on random function (-10% To 10% profit ) - totalling Rs 1,20,000/- for one year.
At the end of 12 months, the final amount is calculated in both investments (OneTime and SIP)
Since the market is based on random movement with equal chance of profit and loss, at the end of year, either SIP or OneTime investment perform better than the other.

This whole action( I call it one Trial) is simulated for 100000 times. This method results the outcome of 100000 simulations and which one performs better most of the times.

Resuts:
Out of 100000 simulations, 21074 times( i.e 1 out of 5 trail ) OneTime Investment gave high returns compared to SIP. And SIP scores over OneTime Investment in 78926 times ( i.e 4 out of 5 trials).

Another comparision of performance of OneTime and SIP investments for 100000 trails.
In 54,082 trials, OneTime investment gave negative returns, while SIP method gave negative returns for 26189 times for one year investment This explains the events, if the market crashes after oneTime investment.

There is one more interesting factor, OneTime investment gives high returns (over 30%) more number of times than SIP investment assuming bullish markets.

Please find the attached screenshot of the details.

All these simulations consider a time frame of 1 year. The probability of greater returns for OneTime and SIP is 1:4,
If the timeframe is increased to 5+ years, then the probability of greater returns for OneTime and SIP is 1:2

Conclusion:
As per the above analysis, SIP scores over oneTime investment. If you have huge amount to invest, Better invest regularly in small amounts using SIP in Equity.

Comments are welcome. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

[rkthomas]

hai niranjan u r article is very good

[suba_stocks]

niranjan! good analysis and my hearty thanks to you.

suba

[niranjan190]

Hi Thomas & suba,
Thanks for your comments.

[rameshk74]

Hi All,

If we have done one time investment in a plan, we can still buy additional units under our existing folio by investing additional amounts. A person who plan for Systematic Investment Plan can use the above method to buy additional units every month instead of going for SIP. This also give the convenience of investing when the NAV is lower. I wonder why everyone is saying that SIP is better?

Ramesh

[sattimes]

is this what u were looking for?

http://www.traderji.com/mutual-funds...nt-vs-sip.html

regds
Satish

[rameshk74]

Thanks. I have read that thread. It is claimed that SIP is better. My doubt is, if we make use of additional purchases with a fixed amount of say, Rs 1000 every month on a Non-SIP plan, it works in the same way as SIP. This looks better option for me than an SIP plan. The reason is I have the complete control over what day in a month I can purchase units. I can purchase units when the NAV is lower in the month. My investment still grow like an SIP. Is my conclusion right?

[rvm123]

yr conclusion is 100% correct. For example, today (28.2.2007), the market has fallen about 500 points. So, tommorrow, (1.3.2007) all the MF's will quote lesser NAV's. That is the correct time to invest. Hence this method of investing is better than investing in SIP where the investment will be made on a particular standard date every month

[Linus]

On the lighter side, SIP is Sleep in Peace!

ss

[sattimes]

Originally Posted by rameshk74

Thanks. I have read that thread. It is claimed that SIP is better. My doubt is, if we make use of additional purchases with a fixed amount of say, Rs 1000 every month on a Non-SIP plan, it works in the same way as SIP. This looks better option for me than an SIP plan. The reason is I have the complete control over what day in a month I can purchase units. I can purchase units when the NAV is lower in the month. My investment still grow like an SIP. Is my conclusion right?

absoluetly correct, only thing is that it takes discipline , patience and also

Time horizon u r looking for matters.

i usually look for the crash like yesterdays for investing in bulk and i buy some frontliners which r down on expiry day(thursday) every month by SIP.

regds
Satish