Caution regarding Technical Analysis

sushant · #41 14th October 2006, 10:10 AM

When people fail to comprehend a tool, let it be from ta or fa, they start bashing it and spreading the word that the tool is of no good.... while the problem is only with their psyche. 90% of ppl loose money in the markets and start fearing the market itself; and 90% of traders get cynical watching helplessly others making twice or thrice money as themselves.

!
I trade metals only on ta and am making profits for some last years very comfortably.

regards
sushant.

sushant · #42 14th October 2006, 11:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CreditViolet

And automated trading is definitely the thing of the future.I am myself doing well using TA and automated methods for years.

I wish to post differet views creditviolet, if they dont upset u.

For automated systems.... its not just u... thare are many many scientists all over the world backed by institutional funds working day and night to incorporate AI, neurology and zillion other technology to automated trading systems. But everyone trips on the fact that a machine cannot beat the homosapiens, or if it does as in matrix movie, it wont be in our lifetime.

If automated trading systems could have worked that way, people will sell them at their retirement and their generations wont have to work for the royalty that flows. The simple rule is that whatever comes to the masses becomes ineffectual.

Pls dont come up with an automated TS which has 'established' a P/L of 1.62 . You cant ignore that high risk/ high reward setup which incorporate probability work best(more profitable). And that requires discretionary trading.

"The EDGE is SUPERIOR knowledge"
sushant.

Gold Trader · #43 22nd October 2006, 07:46 PM

TA vs FA

whether you are using FA or TA, we are just dealing with probabilities in trading. there is no certainty in trading. (but certainty is what we want. and we will never get that)

when we look at fundamentals or news or events or reports or rumours, we cannot exactly measure how far those items can move the markets. some of the news and reports are contrary to each other.

although fundamentals of a commodity did not change a few mins ago, why price changes every second?

in trading, investors and traders decide whether to buy or sell based on price. they will decide based on numbers. they would judge whether price is fair or not. if they think it is unfair price they don't buy. if they think it is cheap, they will buy. when they buy more, price will go up. when they don't buy, it will be quiet or down. they will buy when price is low, then sell when it is higher. if they think it would be higher, they will buy high and sell higher.

how do we know how low is too low, how high is too high. when was the lowest or highest. if there are many buyers or sellers? if they are willing to pay more on the commodities or anything?

that is where TA comes in. those info can be obtained from a single chart. TA is a systematic study of price (resultant of demand vs. supply competition-buying vs. selling). it can be applied to anything what people can buy or sell as long as prices are systematically recorded.

i welcome any comments on my argument.

gt

sushant · #44 26th October 2006, 09:03 AM

Awaiting your reply, creditviolet.

sushant.

CreditViolet · #45 27th October 2006, 03:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sushant

Awaiting your reply, creditviolet.

sushant.

I dont visit these part of the woods often hence the wait

See attachment..
Ofcourse it cant be done.

Damn...should hve listened to my uncle and got a PhD instead of spending hours on end pouring over charts and programs

Will reply in detail later

Be good

CV

sushant · #46 28th October 2006, 06:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CreditViolet

....these part of the woods...

moderators pls note

The attachament reveals a lot about u( assuming u are its proprietor). Nice to meet another bee worker.

I did not say that automated trading systems never do good. Here's a delight for ur eyes:
http://www.silicon.com/financialserv...9162911,00.htm

...but alas! even there its reported that automated trading systems will be beaten by strategic risk undertaking.
I just wish that the 'product v/s business' concept acquires a respectable place in ur brain.

Comfy fella, u've been able to devise a profitable TS. Dont get perturbed.

Hope u will come back with a gyan-entrenched reply.
Best Wishes( dont mistake me)
Sushant.

CreditViolet · #47 28th October 2006, 10:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sushant

The attachament reveals a lot about u( assuming u are its proprietor). Nice to meet another bee worker.

hmmm ok..nice to meet you too. Are you assuming I am renting those screenshots?

Quote:

Originally Posted by sushant

I did not say that automated trading systems never do good. Here's a delight for ur eyes:
http://www.silicon.com/financialserv...9162911,00.htm

There is a huge difference b/w an order executing automated system and automated systems invovled in directional trading.There is a helluva difference b/w the two.

Quote:

Originally Posted by sushant

...but alas! even there its reported that automated trading systems will be beaten by strategic risk undertaking.

Anonymous Internet Articles arent really the best place to come to conclusions.

Quote:

Originally Posted by sushant

I just wish that the 'product v/s business' concept acquires a respectable place in ur brain.

Plz elaborate.

Quote:

Originally Posted by sushant

Comfy fella, u've been able to devise a profitable TS. Dont get perturbed.

I am not used to being perturbed by anonymous posters on a public forum

CV

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