Caution regarding Technical Analysis

Yes i agree with you . yes no one can tell us how much it can affect based on FA facts alone it all depend on mkt sentiment build on that news .

Mechincal Trading System and TA are based on concept price discounts every thing .

I know some cheap charting packages offer spot gold , silver , Futures Gold , Silver ( comex ) and crudeoil ( Nymex ) along Dowjones news .

I offer my signals on outlook from messanger id : bullionbulls ( ***** messanger )

ppls loose here not only bcoz of stp loss less strategies also beacuse of over leveraged trading style i.e lack of money managment . wish u Good lucks Good Trading

I will tend to agree with the caution that you imply when using TA but ofcourse its not all white and black.Its not abt TA,FA or Astrology, the thing to ask is whether one has an EDGE participating in a market. An edge can be defined as a method which performs better than random.Most participants dont even manage that no matter what they use.

Movement is determined on fundamental basis. - Read up Soros's Alchemy of Finance. No fundamentals can explain the movement of markets.Markets are a discounting mechanism where perception of fundamentals tend to alter the fundamentals themselves..


One can definitely trade solely based on TA with prudent risk and trade management.And automated trading is definitely the thing of the future.I am myself doing well using TA and automated methods for years.

Bashing TA or FA gets one nowhere...markets are inherently personal experience and everybody has to find their own niche.

Good day all
CV

Words of wisdom from a Sage I'd say. Most of us here would do well to heed this advice. Those who differ with my view may please disregard this post of mine.

Dear Bullion Trader,

Thank you for your experienced point of view and I also believe Fundamental analysis plays the important role to trade commodies/futures.

So, would you please tell some more about:
1- your experience of using the econonic index for gold futures (CRB, JOC, CPI, PPI...)
2- what web I could find those index accurately and free download data.

Sincerely,
SG

Dear Saigon,
The economic indices u talked about are not for Gold, but for Dollar. There is an inverse relationship beween them. Gold apart from jewellery is an alternative form of currency.

World over central banks either keep Dollars as Foreign Reserve or they keep a reserve of Gold.

For free Economic Data u can approch sites like Forexnews.com, Fxstreet.com.

U can also use paid service from Briefing.com. Its very accurate and wont only provide economic figures, but also reasoning behind it.

Regards

Here's my 2 bit worth :

TA will tell u what is happening ( e.g reversal, consolidation .... etc) and what to expect based on that (with sound underlying logic)

FA will tell u why that is happening ( e.g. future earnings slump/boost, management change etc. ... much of which will be known first to insiders)

Clearly FA has an upper hand if u now ponder over this quote (not exact words) in conjucntion with the above hypothesis :

"One who knows WHAT and HOW will always have a job...
One who knows WHY will be his boss"

Speaking for myself, I use both as far as possible.

AGILENT

i enjoy reading the write up here. i read the icicidirect.com's stocks on the move and pick of the week columns. it is a judicial mix of both TA and FA. above all readable.

traderji, your moderation, is timely. it is nice that you encourage the write up as a separate topic.

IT IS VERY SAD THAT YOU DO NOT UNDERSTAND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AT ALL. IF YOU DID, YOU WOULD HAVE REALISED THAT TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WILL GIVE YOU A SHORT TERM MOVEMENT OF THE MARKET AND YOU NEED TO USE THE FUNDAMENTALS TO PLAY THE LONGER PICTURE.

IF YOUR FUNDAMENTALS WERE THE ONLY THING TI WORK, CNA YOU EXPLAIN WHY THE MARKETS FALL ONE DAY AND RISE THE NEXT? ITS A PITY THAT YOU TALK OF THINGS YOU DO NOT KNOW ABOUT.

TRY TO UNDERSTAND THE ELLIOTT WAVE, AND YOU WILL UNDERSTAND THAT MARKET MOVEMENT CAN BE PREDICTED. I AM NOT SAYING THAT THE ELIIOTT WAVE IS THE HOLY GRAIL, BUT IT WILL ATLEAST TAKE YOU IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION.

DO NOT BLAME TECHNICAL ANALYSIS FOR THE LOSSES YOU MADE. YOU LOST MONEY BECAUSE YOU WERE NOT GUTSY ENOUGH TO TRADE, YOU DID NOT UNDERSTAND THE MARKETS, YOU WERE TOO SCARED OR TOO GREEDY, OR YOU WERE TOO RECKLESS AND DID NOT FOLLOW STOP LOSS RULES.

IF YOU DO NOT KNOW HOW TO TRADE, SIMPLY GIVE UP AND LET THE PEOPLE WHO KNOW HOW TO MAKE MONEY FROM THESE MARKETS PLAY THE GAME.

Hello Dear,

Now first of all do u know whether I know Technical Analysis or not. i never quoted that I dont know Technical analysis. I know all those theroies use and are talking about. But I prefer fundamentals first and technicals later.

And what losses u talking about? Did I said I made losses using those technical analysis. U seem to be a hard core TA and the reply u have given seem to be carrying a deep hatred towards me.

Better get your facts right first and tehn post dear. Happy trading.

hi everyone,

the question is not who is right! Albert Einstien said that nothing is absolute , everything is relative!
A very important aspect here is that TA if divided into two parts i.e. indicator based trading and structure based trading.And not only my experience , but you all guys would agree that whatever indicator you use , whatever modifications, or combinations, they often get for you a loss! Very simple reason for e.g. weekly MACD and momentum signals a BUY for GOLd ,but after a week we may here that crude oil line is disrupted or likelyhood of war or whatever, the market immediately reverses or takes pause. ?????So, indicators cant tell you right.
Now, the fundamental news is know to few of the Big fishes like Goldman sachs ect, and they start acting according to it to profit huge from guys using TA indicators!!!!!

But, structural patterns in TA tell us a different story that yes! something is going to happen very bad or good Not all the time , but ya many a times.
TA of structural market is really worth and it has it's own set of rules like any game. Study Gleen nely's MEW, elliot wave , pattern analysis. This will rally help you.

Now wht happens is that there are big fishes to very small fishes in very market. These Big fishes are so powerful that they can maipulate the fundamental news, or whtever! Ultimately over a period of time Big fishes eat small ones and they are winners! So the thing is to be with them and not against them! But how???? TA of market structure and not indicators! and self reliance.

Now all together any market in a short term or long term is a GAMBLING cauz Big players will fool you by false news, false market movements!!!
So, if you handle your every trade mathematically only you should profit. Learn the % success of ur method, wht % of ur capital you should risk every trade and i mean statistical approach.

Other thing is that 70% of time markets are in consolidation in any time frame and only abt 30% of times impulsive i.e. either very up or very down.
And wht happens is that all small fishes get in and out during consolidation. They take profits quick or let ride loss during impulsive movement.

So, neither FA or TA can really build ur capital, but i t is how you handle this GAMBLING GAME of INVESTING.
Wht i mean to say is that wether a longterm or short term investor, we all are gamblers, so please plz plz give a statistical and mathematical approach to ur money, or else do hard work and earn money!

Winston
Thanxs