Caution regarding Technical Analysis

shethharsh · #21 4th May 2006, 05:55 PM

Hey bulliontrader ,

COuld you please share you PLEASE SHARE HOW you study the commodities market and suggest us some books on fundamental analysis . It would be a great help if you help me with so .

Harsh

AJAY · #22 5th May 2006, 02:26 AM

Dear BullionTrader,
Thank you for your reply. I suggest you to start a thread, whenever you feel comfortable with your time, on FA of Commodities so that it won't get mixed up with the FA of Equity Markets. And I also request you to pull 2 minutes time to introduce yourself which definitely will make our waiting for your posts worthwhile.
Eagerly waiting to see your posts
AJAY

mupparaju · #23 5th May 2006, 01:21 PM

hi guys

this is kamesh from religare research

Bulliontrader · #24 5th May 2006, 06:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by shethharsh

Hey bulliontrader ,

COuld you please share you PLEASE SHARE HOW you study the commodities market and suggest us some books on fundamental analysis . It would be a great help if you help me with so .

Harsh

For commodities u should have basic knowledge about Macro and Micro economics.About demand and supply theories. There are various books for that. Plus follow the market from a trader/speculators prespective. U wont find it any book. It comes from trading experience. Daily proper study of market movements is also essential.

U should look at market from both long term and short term prespective. Current market tone for eg is very bullish on long term. Even if a major correction appears, it makes a good opportunity to buy.
U should also look for reasons , as t why market has fallen or moved up. Specualtors cites various factors for market upwardmovement and profit booking.

Knwoledge of TA is also helpful, esp for day traders, for when to enter and when to exit.I always look for both long term and short term trends for trading.

Every commodity has its own fundamentals. This market is also rumour driven.So u should always be in touch with major economic and political movements.

There is muchmore which I will tell u later.I would start one thread on FA for commodities, so that trades can share views and also guide new people in buinsess.

pooja_salve · #25 9th May 2006, 02:20 PM

hi all

i have just started learning technical analysis. and trust me it gives lot of confidence.

even though we follow fundamentals for the commodities like gold, silver and crude it is very difficult to give numeric value to it. eg. if any fundamental news comes about iran , can any person only on the basis of fundamentals tell me by how much dollar gold, silver and crude will be up?

take any news and then tell me is it possible to conver the news in numbers to get targets?

this is the same problem i have faced for so many days and then i have decided to learn technical analysis.

about 20th april gold fall in international spot gold ( i dont have facility to c comex future quotes/charts so i do study from spot gold )

whenever price moves in any direction it is retraced

on 13th april the low was $590.10. and the top touched on 19th april was $642.20

if we take retracement from 590.10 to 642.20 then , on 20the april the low was $608.30 which is close to 61.8% retracemnt of the same move (61.8% retracement is $610.3)

that is what i know.

People loose money in market only becoz they dont follow the most important principle of derivative market - "Stop-Loss"

i m not against anybody. but just wanted to share my problems with u so i have posted my views on this forum.

can anyone help me on intra-day technical calls?

please call me on 9821820468

let me tell u frankly what ever i have learned in technicals is only due to co-operative members of this forum.

thanks everyone.

anand_mcxindia · #26 9th May 2006, 06:13 PM

Dear pooja
There is no of fundamental analysis in gold and silver
1.Techincal analysis of doller in fingure dips
2.fed rate
3.hedge fund
4.supply and deamand
5.investment deamand
6.oil forecost
7.political tension

Bulliontrader · #27 9th May 2006, 09:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by anand_mcxindia

Dear pooja
There is no of fundamental analysis in gold and silver
1.Techincal analysis of doller in fingure dips
2.fed rate
3.hedge fund
4.supply and deamand
5.investment deamand
6.oil forecost
7.political tension

Quite true, Techinical analysis gives only entry exit points. Movement is determined on fundamental basis. Daily movements, short term to long term movments. Most of techinical analysis is based on "IF". Moslty option traders in Comex use them for placing bets.

Pooja if u use technical analysis, then better get access to Comex Price, beacuse all levels, charts are based on Comex futures.

Regards

pooja_salve · #28 10th May 2006, 11:33 AM

Thank u so much sir!

i will try to get the updated version at the earliest.

but still whatever facility is available in my office right now i m trying to get maximum benefit of it instead of waiting for the updated version.

thanks once again.

pooja

pooja_salve · #29 10th May 2006, 11:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by anand_mcxindia

Dear pooja
There is no of fundamental analysis in gold and silver
1.Techincal analysis of doller in fingure dips
2.fed rate
3.hedge fund
4.supply and deamand
5.investment deamand
6.oil forecost
7.political tension

Hi anand

thanks to tell me the fundamentals but i think u have not gone through my post clearly.

i have already mentioned that i was studying gold and siver fundamentals , which includes all ur points herein above and much more.

from ur post it is very much clear that u know Technical Analysis very well. (as to study gold and silver u said u r doing technical analysis of dollar)

can u please guide me on intra-day calls please. like how prepare that.

u can call me 9821820468

thanks

pooja

rajeshjain · #30 10th May 2006, 02:54 PM

HI all ,,It made an interesting reading about fundamental & technical debates,well I take them as front & back wheels of the car wherein front ones give directions & back ones give power to the directions,As per my reading front would be TA & back would be FA.
For any TA to be right/wrong u need backing of FA & for any move based on FA you need support & direction from TA.
BUT apart from these two I personaly feel another factor is very imp. i.e mkt psychology,you should know how to get that,if that wasnt the case today we'd be having 1 F Analyst & 1 Tech Analyst instead of Bill Gates.sO THINK OVER IT & COMMENT!!!HAPPY TRADING

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