Trading Log - Forward Testing with $30K combine

Tlahuicole

Well-Known Member
#21
Since, I am facing severe drawdown of 900$, I have reduced the trading lot size to 1 lot from 2 lots. Last week I went to 31200$ and again came back to 30300$.

For analyzing the results of forward testing, I would need atleast 50 to 100 trades.

My combine gets over on May 17th 2017 and I would proceed with this combine till I face the drawdown limit of 5% which I hold is good for a day trading strategy to get funding from a proprietary trading firm.

I have so far ensured to follow the trading plan to the letter and have not deviated from it in most of the circumstances.

As per backtesting, the win ratio is 65% but my current win rate is 44%, and hence the poor results. Once I trade this strategy for 20 trading days, I will compile the data and analyze for the forward testing metrics.

I have noted down the points for improvements for this strategy so far and will consider them to be part of the trading plan for the next combine. Currently noted points,

1) Trade 1 lot from the beginning instead of 2 lots, even though it would take more than a month to reach the profit target, reaching the drawdown of 5% from the peak value is also less probable and this would help in calculating the efficiency of the strategy over a longer period of time.
2) Do not push the stop to break even automatically through an ATM strategy, only push it to break even stop in case the trade takes longer time to realize profits.
3) Find efficient evidence of strengths. I have not analyzed this point clearly, but if possible, I have to find a way to filter out low probability trades. Will be analyzing this as well after 20 trading days.

Let us see how the next week goes. Train Hard and Fight Smart!.
 

Tlahuicole

Well-Known Member
#22
Day 16 - May 8th 2017.





Trade 42:

Result: Loss.
Remark: Wrong trade, no evidence of strength available as per chart.

Trade 43:

Result: Loss.
Remark:None.

Trade 44:

Result: Loss.
Remark: None.

Trade 45:

Result: Loss.
Remark: None.
 

Tlahuicole

Well-Known Member
#23
Day 17 - May 9th 2017.



Trade 46:

Result: Loss.
Remark: None.

Trade 47:

Result: Profit.
Remark: None.
 

Tlahuicole

Well-Known Member
#24
Day 18 - May 10th 2017.



Trade 48:

Result: Loss.
Remark: None.

Trade 49:

Result: Loss.
Remark: None.

Trade 50:

Result: profit.
Remark: None.
 

Tlahuicole

Well-Known Member
#25
Day 19 - May 11th 2017.



Trade 51:

Result: Profit.
Remark: None.

Trade 52:

Result: Loss.
Remark: None.

Trade 53:

Result: Loss.
Remark: None.

Trade 54:

Result: Loss.
Remark: None.
 
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Tlahuicole

Well-Known Member
#27
This walk forward testing was not successful.




After twenty trading days, the strategy had hit the trailing drawdown limit.

I am analyzing the forward tested trades to see if there is any room for improvement. I will be try another combine after I am able to come to a conclusion.

Train Hard but Fight Smart.
 

Tlahuicole

Well-Known Member
#28
I have started a new combine with the same strategy but with modified parameters to see if the strategy is suitable for my style. I will be trading 1 lot in CL. I have made the adjustments to the original trade plan as per feedback and analysis.

There is no glory in practice, but without practice, there is no glory - anonymous.
 
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Tlahuicole

Well-Known Member
#29
June 5th 2017:

Day 1:




Trade 1:

Result: Profit.
Remark: None.

Trade 2:

Result: Loss.
Remark: Short term trend was not powerful as there was a break out failure after which the trade was taken. This point has to be analyzed for improvement.

Trade 3:

Result: Profit.
Remark: None.
 

Tlahuicole

Well-Known Member
#30
June 6th 2017:

Day 2:



Trade 4:

Result: Loss.
Remark: Short term trend was not powerful as there was a break out failure after which the trade was taken. This point has to be analyzed for improvement.

Trade 5:

Result: Profit.
Remark: Short term trend was not powerful as there was a break out failure after which the trade was taken. This point has to be analyzed for improvement.

Trade 6:

Result: Loss.
Remark: None.

Trade 7:

Result: Loss.
Remark: None.
 

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