Fundamentanlly good Stocks...

Re.: JBF Industries

I think, the singlemost important reason for investing in this scrip is that some Investors (probably CITI Bank) have been given preferential allotment at around 70 levels.

These investors do undue long due diligence and one can safely invest in scrips that they invest in. If you take history in the last one year, their investments have grown anywhere from 100% to 500%.

According to me, this is a safe investment.

Kamalesh

Hi All,

JBF looks good.
Its Revenue and profits are increasing consistently. Moreover the company has posted good results for the quarter ending June 05.

June05 June04 (in crs)
191.88 166.88 Rev
9.48 3.81 PAT

Reported EPS for 04-05 is 9.14. This makes the trailing P/E @CMP 74 = 8.1 (not too expensive for textile company).

Excerpts from annual report of 04-05
_________________________________________________
MANAGEMENT DISCUSSION & ANALYSIS:

1. OVERALL REVIEW:

In the year, 2004-2005 the production of Polyester Chips at JBF Industries Limited increased from 85.051 MT in 2003-04 to 1,07,425 MT in 2004-05 an increase of 26.31.

During the same period POY production increased from 54132 MT to 57572 MT an increase of 6.35%. As a result of improvement in production the net sales turnover increased from Rs.534.65 crores in 2003-04 to Rs.739.61 crores in 2004-05, an increase of 38.33%.

The above achievements were despite the adverse conditions in the raw material prices during the year. The year 2004-05 saw a steep hike in process of polyester raw materials a result of increased buying from polyester plants in China. With a capacity of around 18 Million Tonnes in polyester, China has become a big consumer of Polyester raw materials PTA and MEG The increased demand by China saw the MEG and PTA prices increase dramatically. Prices in India for MEG and PTA are based on import parity thus the global price increase was mirrored in India. The prices of finished goods did not follow the same trends as the prices of. the raw materials with the competing yarn cotton seeing a decline in prices as result of a bumper cotton crop. August 2004 saw the situation aggravated with a reduction on the excise duty on cotton yarn with no corresponding reduction in excise duty on Polyester Yarn. The Third quarter thus saw a major dip in the industry, which has since been corrected.

But for these adverse conditions, the performance of the company would have still been better.

2. INDUSTRY OUTLOOK:

The Budget announcement in February 2005 did provide some relief to the industry. The Excise duty on Polyester Filament Yarn was reduced to 16% from 24%. In line with reduction in peak rate of Customs duties, the customs duties on PTA, MEG & DMT were brought down to 15% from 20%. These measures are likely 'to bring about improvement in working performance in the Industry. The abolition of Quotas are likely to provide boost to exports of Textiles from India and this could further lead to additional demand for Yarn.

In view of certain developments on restrictions of Chinese Textile Exports to US & European Region, as well as due to partial slow down following banking regulations becoming stringent in China, the operating rates of various plants in China have come down of late. As a result , last two months. have seen a decrease in consumption of raw-material such as PTA & MEC46 leading to price reduction in these raw-materials internationally. This has had a similar effect in India and lately, the prices of Polyester raw materials are on the decline and are expected to remain lower compared to the previous year. Consequently, the margins for POY & Chips are likely to remain very comfortable in the current year.

The other drivers for growth of Polyester in India can be summarized as under:

a. Currently the per capita consumption of synthetics is low in India. However, with growth in GDP and hence a higher disposable income along with growth in population, the demand for synthetics is expected to grow in India.

b. There appears to be a tremendous untapped potential for development of various Polyester varieties in Industrial Textiles, specifically for automobile sector, house-hold furnishings etc. With developments in this sector, the demand for Polyester is likely to improve.

3. OPPORTUNITIES & THREATS:

In view of the optimistic potential growth of this Industry, primarily due to the price advantages vis-a-vis other varieties of yarn, Polyester will continue to dominate the over all fibre scene in India. It is also well established that Polyester is now the most preferred fibre and has deeply penetrated the low income strata of the society. Such factors provide opportunity for increased domestic production. The demand for Polyester Yam and Polyester Chips is expected to be increasing and there is ample scope for investment in additional capacities.

While observing the opportunities within the industry, the concern are there on the volatility in raw-material prices. Concerns are also on low price of imports, which may occur due to over production in certain Asian countries. These can put pressure on margins.

3. COMPANY OUTLOOK:

The company has now come to be known as an established player in the Industry with high level of operational efficiency, extremely competitive cost structure and excellent geographical location. The existing product qualities of the company i.e. Polyester POY & Chips are accepted as the best in the market and the Polyester Chips plant and the POY plant continue to run at optimum efficiencies under supervision of highly skilled man power. The company has seen an opportunity for supplying additional quantity of Polyester Chips to growing number of consumers, who use chips as their raw-material for manufacture of POY.

As has been informed earlier, the company's expansion plan for new Polyester Chips manufacturing plant continues to be progressing well. Barring unforeseen circumstances, the plant should go on stream by end of 2005. Once completed, this plant should add on considerably to the turn over and profitability of the company.
__________________________________________________ ____

Can someone throw some light on technical & fundamental aspect of this scrip. (AMIT, Saint your comments plz).

(just in case I am posting redundant/useless info on this forum plz do let me know.....I am novice and this is all I look for.....your comments will help me in developing a better prespective towards investing and trading).

Regards,
Ashish.

thanks for such a detailed information and keep posting

Hi Ashish,

Was in JBF till recently........but from charts angle ,not looking so good right now.Looks like a double top in formation on the JBF weekly........confirmation only if it breaks the weekly base of 66.Breaking 66,it is officially in a downtrend.....for now,just a sideways pattern.

Careful on this one......If planning to enter,enter only if it negates the ugly weekly candle from last week,and can take out 88(in short,from charts angle,buy only if it can cross 88).

Happy Trading!!
Saint

Hi Ashish,

If planning as a long term investment,and wish to enter a bit here......great,but remember that area of 66.Don't tolerate anymore once it breaks through 66.

Saint

Hi Saint,

Many thanx for your input. Guess will stick to your earlier advice as have no bandwidth to go for long term with this one :-)).

Regards,
Ashish.

Thanks Saint for this input. I'll follow your advice.

Indo count industries the company is a hidden gem.with the result
season ahead this stock could and will multiply your investments.The
company is on the path of major expansion and diversification.the
features of company are-
* Supplies cotton yarn to over 30 countries including the US, Europe
* Has 59,500 spindles (installed capacity 7,500 tonnes pa), 8 knitting
machines (1,500 tonnes pa)
* Only company in Asia to get Swiss yarn mark `Rieter'
* Produced 23,000 units of CTVs in August; Sept target 35,000
* Largest OEM for Korean, Chinese electronics giants
source-http://cities.expressindia.com/fullstory.php?newsid=150335
the profit in the newly started electronics business would be included
in the next quaterly result which would be out next month.seeing this
some big players are eyeing this one.the results are expected to be
excllent.so buy at any levels before 65 and see your investments
zooming.


Friends who do TA kindly tell and friends check Fundamental with ur interest


From

Arvind.K

FRIENDS
I wud like to tell everybody about INTEGRA HINDUSTAN!!!!this is a gem of
a stock.....to start with it is into making switches etc....n it has
an equity base of only 1.1 crore (11 lac shares @10 f.v).....now to draw
ur attention its promoters hold 51% in it....the biggest positive thing
being one of them is ABB(25.5%).....this speaks volume about the
mgmt.....it is trading at a cheap P/e ratio compared to its
peers..

Check ur self b4 investing

Arvind.K

Garware Wallropes Face Value - Rs 10 Buy Rs 52
Ticker: 509557 H/L: Rs 30/62
• A leading manufacturer of synthetic cordages besides
being one of the most preferred brands across the
world, Garwara-Wall Ropes is trading quite cheaply at
8x its FY05 earnings. It reported a top line growth
of 12 per cent in revenue for Q1FY06 to Rs 60 crore
while earnings grew by 13 per cent to Rs 2.11 crore
• The company has healthy reserves to the tune of Rs
106 crore while its current market capitalization
stands at Rs 104 crore and FY05 sales at Rs 228 crore
• It is a consistent dividend paying company with a
dividend yield of around 5 per cent. Further, it is on
an expansion spree and we feel it would be report
healthy earnings growth for next few years

Cummins India Face Value - Rs 2 Buy Rs 153
Ticker: 500480 H/L: Rs 105/163
• A leading manufacturer of heavy-duty diesel engines,
it has reported a top line growth of 17 per cent to Rs
328 crore in Q1FY06 as compared to Rs 282 crore in
Q1FY05 while earnings grew by 22 per cent to Rs 35
crore from Rs 29 crore
• A consistent dividend paying company with strong
reserves to the tune of Rs 660 crore as per FY05
balance sheet besides having heavy presence of FIIs
and Mutual Funds
• Moreover, the company is mulling to expands its
manufacturing facilities at its Pune plant, which
would be involved in assembling low horse power
engines and generators sets for domestic as well as
exports markets. The total outlay is expected to be
around Rs 15 crore

Plastiblends India Face Value - Rs 10
Buy Rs 138
Ticker: 523648 H/L: Rs 154/75
• l A market leader in biodegradable masterbatches, UV
stabilizers etc has reported a top line growth of
almost 7 per cent to Rs 20 crore in Q1FY05 as compared
to Rs 18.84 crore in Q1FY04. However, the rising input
cost took a toll on its earnings, which was almost
flat at Rs 2.68 crore
• l A consistent dividend paying company, with pretty
low debt to equity ratio and a healthy book value
worth more than 6 times its current face value of Rs
10
• l The company has a strong client base of more than
2,300, which include big names of polymer
manufacturers such as Reliance, IPCL, Gail and polymer
processors such as Supreme Industries, Cosmo Films,
Garware Polysters

Geraves Cotton Face Value - Rs 10 Buy Rs
229
Ticker: 501455 H/L: Rs 74/245
• l A well diversified engineering company, it has
reported top line growth of 6 per cent in Q1FY06 to Rs
186 crore as against Rs 176 crore in Q1FY05. While its
earnings reported an earnings growth of 186 per cent
to Rs 27 crore. Although this exponential growth
includes an extra-ordinary item to the tune of Rs 16
crore as it sold its undertaking of Oilfield &
Drilling division
• l Reliance AMC as well its PMS has recently acquired
some shares through secondary markets after which its
shareholding stands at 5 per cent of its share capital

• l After divesting its Industrial Products segment in
June 2004 and its Oilfield and Drilling Business
recently, it has now become more focused towards
engine and infrastructure equipment. We feel after
restructuring, company has a buoyant outlook and hence
it can entail decent returns if held on a long-term
basis

Technicals

Correction short-lived
The Sensex is in midst of a fantastic bull
(intermediate and long term uptrend remains intact)
run and still shows no signs of easing off. It again
posted a fresh all time high and also closed at a
fresh all time high while the anticipated correction
has turned out to be rather short-lived. Outlook
remains positive while a further upside cannot be
ruled out but sanctity of 8260 level needs to be
maintained if the ongoing positives are to continue.
Trend (Index) - Up Last Index Closing : 8606.03
Support : 8600, 8500 Resistance : 8700, 8800
55 WEEK EMA : 6807.88 100 WEEK EMA : 6154.26
MACD : BUY MODE RMI : BUY MODE
ROC : BUY MODE RSI : BUY MODE
STOCHASTIC : SELL MODE

Sahara Housing Buy Rs 70.70
Sahara Housing Finance Corporation bottomed out by
posting an intra-week low of Rs 5.25 during week ended
11th June 2003 and these levels have not been seen
since. The scrip entered an intermediate uptrend,
overcame 55 Week EMA and rallied to peak at an
intra-week high of Rs 38.25 during week ended 16th
January 2004 only to give a downward key reversal.
Sahara Housing Finance Corporation entered a
corrective phase, breached the 55 Week EMA on the
downside, declined to post an intra-week low of Rs
11.05 during week ended 4th June 2004 and staged a
recovery almost immediately in the next week. The
scrip overcame 55 Week EMA, entered an intermediate
uptrend, posted a series of progressively higher tops
and bottoms, stared moving within confines of an
upward sloping channel, gave a throwover and peaked at
an intra-week high of Rs 97.90 during week ended 11th
March 2005 but couldn't sustain these levels for long.
Sahara Housing Finance Corporation gave a downward key
reversal, entered a corrective phase, started moving
within the confines of a downward sloping channel and
bottomed out by posting an intra-week low of Rs 50.25
during the week ended 24th June 2005. Currently, the
scrip is above the 55 Week EMA, has given an upward
breakout from the aforesaid channel and with the
mechanical indicators supporting the move, a further
upside cannot be ruled out.
Trading Pointers
Indicators : MACD-Buy RMI-Buy Stochastic-Sell
ROC-Buy RSI-Buy
Support : 065.00, 051.00 Resistance : 074.00, 093.00
Targets : 1st Target : 089 2nd Target : 098
BSE Code : 511533
Stoploss : 63.00 (cls) 55 Week EMA : 52.12

HMT Buy Rs 87.5

HMT peaked at an intra-week high of Rs 31.45 during
week ended 9th January 2004, couldn't sustain these
levels for long, entered a corrective phase, breached
Trendline 2 on the downside, breached the 55 Week EMA
on the downside and bottomed out by posting an
intra-week low of Rs 13.65 during the week ended 21st
May 2004 only to give an upward key reversal. The
scrip moved sideways for next 16 weeks under pressure
from 55 Week EMA before it finally gave an upward
breakout from here, entered an intermediate uptrend,
peaked at an intra-week high of Rs 52.70 during week
ended 25h November 2004 where resistance came in the
form of Trendline 3 (supply line & outer boundary of
the upward sloping channel - refer to chart). HMT
entered a protracted corrective phase with constant
supply coming in the form of Trendline 6, posted an
intra-week low of Rs. 30.60 during the week ended 1st
April 2005, gave an upward key reversal, took support
on the 55 Week EMA and Trendline 1, gave an upward
breakout by closing above Trendline 6 and ultimately
rallied to peak at an intra-week high of Rs 96.85
during the week ended 22nd July 2005. Currently, the
mechanical indicators are in a positive frame of mind,
the scrip is on the verge of giving an upward breakout
from a consolidation phase while a weekly close above
Trendline 5 (horizontal supply line - refer to chart)
would confirm the bullish outlook.
Trading Pointers
Indicators : MACD-Buy RMI-Buy Stochastic-Buy
ROC-Sell RSI-Buy
Support : 088, 074 Resistance : 097, 116
Targets : 1st Target : 116 2nd Target :
124 BSE Code : 500191
Stoploss : 85.00 (cls) 55 Week EMA : 50.96

Street Talk
Beware
There seems to have been some sort of manipulation in
counters such as SBI Home Finance (BSE Code: 500379)
as well as IFSL (BSE Code: 531998) and hence it would
be advisable to exit both these counter as soon as
possible.

Soft valuations
An IT analyst feels Mastek (BSE Code: 523704)
currently trading at Rs 493 is a good buy for next one
year, as low
valuations would generate interest among investing
community.



Senior kindly post your views on above stocks for SHORT,MID,LOND term prospect. EXpectingyour views.


NOTE: Cross Check b4 investing or selling your stocks.


From,

Arvind.K