Why is this section ignored??

oxusmorouz · #21 11th April 2007, 09:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VISHAL JAIN

hy ajay

i think our traderji members are traders not long term investor, so they are interested only in TA rather then FA

LOL,true

Quote:

Originally Posted by saga364

By the way TA works on the basic assumption that past data is a good indicator of future ...

I refuse to believe in that !

And no, am not saying TA is bad, am just presenting my personal opinion why I dont use TA.

Regards,
http://pseudosocial.blogspot.com

Man, let's not get into an arguement as to what is better...
The thing is, how does a student learn "real fundamental analysis" (not news reading, which I consider to be post mortem...an autopsy) without being employed by an institution?

CreditViolet · #22 28th April 2007, 11:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saga364

By the way TA works on the basic assumption that past data is a good indicator of future ...

I refuse to believe in that !

And no, am not saying TA is bad, am just presenting my personal opinion why I dont use TA.

Regards,
http://pseudosocial.blogspot.com

Sir

Data used to do fundamental analysis is 'past' data as well used to make projections isnt it? So by your logic FA shouldnt work as well?

And you dont use TA because you dont know any better.Basic brain wash for many students by their theoretical and sometimes lucky professors who like to talk and brag a lot.Also fundamentals is a broad subject, most people just get hung on balance sheets without proper focus on macroeconomics and intermarket relationships.A great book in this regard is Soros's Alchemy of Finance where he explains all this in detail.

That said 99.99% of TA passed around doesnt work either so you have a point as well there. You see all this guys posting around about indicators,software and data for TA, I can tell you by experience that not one of them can survive a month trading.The thing is, no one in this business makes money (professional or not), in a direct way, either trading or investing.Its like the Gold Rush in California where the people selling spades and refreshments made all the money.Brokers, Analysts, Tipsters, Data and Software Vendors should be one's career choice for those interested in the markets, trading is something almost no one can do.

Also this reminds me of an incident, a chat with the famed tipster Rajeev Mundra.Now that guy cant trade for sh*t, I have seen first hand experience of it.He used to argue back and forth about how FA is important in trading after a series of dud trades.That showed that FA is something that people use to lean on a wrong decision rather than to make investments.

kkseal · #23 29th April 2007, 01:10 AM

Which stock/s to trade in ---> FA
When to trade ---> TA

(And i may also add Sentiment ---> News)

Where's the conflict ??

Futile to fight, prudent to unite

Regards,
Kalyan.

CreditViolet · #24 29th April 2007, 07:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kkseal

Which stock/s to trade in ---> FA
When to trade ---> TA

(And i may also add Sentiment ---> News)

You are talking about filtering stocks to trade via PE, EPS, Relative Strength etc.That is hardly fundamentals.If one goes through the CFA coursework for Fundamental Research it becomes evident how much quantitative and qualitative work is involved in Fundamental Analysis.People talk in here about a quarter or two and half yearly Results as fundamentals which is ofcourse a joke.Warren Buffet in reference to Ed Lampert said tht an investor is lucky enough to find one great fundamental pick in his entire life and here we have dozens of fundamentalists coming up with 'stories' and 'stocks' everyday.This is nothing but pure gimmickry, the usual 'tip' passed off as something fundamental."Confounding bull markets with brains" as the saying goes.I respect fundamental analysis in its purest form, most of what is passed as FA is just hullabaloo by ignorant but greedy quack jobs.

About Sentiment being News, I disagree.I classify news as events and sentiment is the reaction to news than news itself.Investor sentiment is a well researched field ergo Breadth and other econometric indicators.

Rgds

kkseal · #25 29th April 2007, 03:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CreditViolet

You are talking about filtering stocks to trade via PE, EPS, Relative Strength etc.That is hardly fundamentals.If one goes through the CFA coursework for Fundamental Research it becomes evident how much quantitative and qualitative work is involved in Fundamental Analysis.People talk in here about a quarter or two and half yearly Results as fundamentals which is ofcourse a joke.Warren Buffet in reference to Ed Lampert said tht an investor is lucky enough to find one great fundamental pick in his entire life and here we have dozens of fundamentalists coming up with 'stories' and 'stocks' everyday.This is nothing but pure gimmickry, the usual 'tip' passed off as something fundamental."Confounding bull markets with brains" as the saying goes.I respect fundamental analysis in its purest form, most of what is passed as FA is just hullabaloo by ignorant but greedy quack jobs.

About Sentiment being News, I disagree.I classify news as events and sentiment is the reaction to news than news itself.Investor sentiment is a well researched field ergo Breadth and other econometric indicators.

Rgds

Agree with you on both points.

Undoubtedly Ratio analysis is only a small part of FA. But the other more intricate methods of valuing a company involves data that is not easily available; so i just stick to what's available. I also make future projections based on CAGR growth rates but am fully aware that this a crude and inaccurate way of arriving at such projections. So i keep downgrading/ upgrading the projections based on qtrly results and also any change in the Fundamentals for the sector itself. Accordingly my Gainsex & Gifty

changes (This is a small database of the imo 50 best mid & small cap stks i maintain as my trading/investing repository - other than the largecaps).

As for sentiments being the reaction to news (rather than the news itself) is also the right definition. I just kind of encapsulated it with Sentiment --> News, the implication being good news leading to positive sentiments and vice versa. Also one needs to be cautious about the short term impact of news as very often the news is available much beforehand to insiders. Prices may have already moved and the short term gain that the news warrants may already be well factored in. So the important news for me are the ones that are likely to have a longer term Fundamental impact for the stock and/or sector (not like whether a fertilizer company is selling land as it has nothing to do with the prospects of its core business but if it's venturing into real estate in earnest, that may add to it's net worth in the longer term).

Regards,
Kalyan.

oilman5 · #26 29th April 2007, 04:55 PM

thanks kk and cv,
a gem of a discussion.
fa and ta clarified..also role of professionalism.
and news and impact on price....

thank u again..for showing art of simplicity in essence
oilman5

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