Jayesh - noobie at Stocks, old at life though. :) & that 2 at 45!!

Hello Everybody,

I have had the pleasure to read quite a few posts - by Pankaj, Murthy, just to get an idea of what happens here. Should say that I am impressed and that there is a lot of cheer and camaderie here.

Been around on planet earth for a while and have become a total realist. Never invested in stocks 20 years back which was the right time for long term investing and I had the money but was young, optimistic, aggressive and full of unused hormones, bottled up by a typical Indian mothers insistence on "Jayesh, what are you doing. Who are you talking with" scenario.

I have worked for a while though and have made some money of which a good part is invested in the last one year in the Blue Chip stocks. I am also learning the ropes.

1) Your trading/investing experience - about two years but one year a bit serious as I am following what is happening. Does not mean I am understanding everything though.

2) The number of years you have been investing or trading in the markets.
as above
3) Your area of interest - IPO's/secondary - Mostly secondary, occassionally primary and Mutual Funds. Have not dabbled into the more esoteric f/o and commodities option yet.

4) How do you make your trading decisions. Trying to download data, find software to analyse - have paid for VisionLite and have subsequently also found Metastock and AmiBroker. Trying to get historical end of day data and that seems to be a big excercise. If a good soul here can offer old data, dont mind paying for the same.

5) How you discovered this forum.

I have totally forgotten but must have come via a Google search.

6) ETC, etc.

Vagaraih --stay in Pune, married for 15 years, 3 kids, one disabled mother, one special child out of the three, a seeker, would like to start an alternative school and looking for some land for the same. Organic farming will be part of the entire project, so also an old peoples home. Originally from Hyderabad. what else does curiosity want?

take care and hope to hear from the seniors. Ihave also downloaded some of the software for excel etc and will certainly post whatever comments I can think of. I have seen that extensive comments have already been made to most. Nevertheless....

Pranaams, Good Night or Good Morning as the case may be for you.

Hi Jayesh


Download historical data for amibroker from my free web page. I upload once a month.

http://in.geocities.com/vichooo_1999/mypage.html

Hi Jayesh
I would like to extend my warm welcome to you on behalf of all of us.
Hope you have a nice time here.

Best Regards
Coool.

Jayesh,

enjoy your time here learning, looking at your commitments and age . I suggest you happily stick to IPO's and Delviery kind of tradng (inlcuding if possible tight Swing Trading).

Not the time to risk your money in F&O, eventhough it looks very attractive.

even if you can generate a nice income of 30% of your investment, it is almost 3 times more what Banks give you as interest.

So, enjoy your time trading..

go lucky.......

Satya

dear jay,

welcome to this forum, surely you will find this association joyful and fruitful too!

there is nothing like late entry, we have in this forum members in a wide range of ages (may be 20 to 70) and varied interests. but what you may find unique is a concern and caring for the other.

i learnt from seniors to share one's knowledge in the forum, even if it may mean an extra effort and time.

as already expressed by other friends, initially spend more time in learning things and take a trial to test what you have learnt. good money management principles will minimise risks. may initially take up mental/ paper trading to test the methodology.

'identify the trend and follow it' is the advice that fascinated me the most. beeter to limit to cash market at least till one gets full grip on market behaviour. 'you are there tomorrow. markets are there too. ensure your money also there to play with' in another advice that still guides me.

you have already had a look at the software posted at this forum. choose one or two, that suit your trading style. and get familiarised with them before putting them to 'use'. your suggestions on further improvement are welcome.

all the best in learning and trading.

MurthyMSR

Thanks to all of you again. I have been surfing the net and realise that there are lots of programs available for free. I spend 100 Euros to get a stock called Vison Lite which assists in downloading data, but has limitations. I downloaded Amipro trial and am experimenting. My background is Statistics so some of the TA part does not deter me. I have never used Stats seriously and this is a first serious attempt. I did use some part in forecasting sales from historic data which is akin to what we are trying to do here except that there are a lot of variables which dont seem to be in ones control. I am also reading up on the TA stuff avaialble, but does one make an assumption that the price reflected is real true value instead of circular trading, insider trading et all. I have put some simulations into my Equitymaster portfolio following CNBC TV 18 and they show interestingly gains of 20% in a matter of 2 months from June 8 to now. And to think that everyone who came on CNBC said it would be range bound and that this probably is a intermediate bottom out and not the real one.

Even when one buys blue chip stocks, should one be in it long term really. The way I see it is that if this is a pull and push strategy and you are lucky enough to have entered at a lower price, is it not better to exit after booking profits and wait for the next cycle.

For instance I have some Cipla stocks which were purchased at about Rs 340 but with the stock split we have made a handsome earning. should one then continue to hold it for say 10 years? I am sure that it will yield a 15 to 20% pa average yield but one is at an exposure which is far higher than the trading scenario.

I am sure you all have your methods as someone here has put it. I am just speaking my mind to see how others approach this.

Namaskar

Jayesh

Hi,

First a note of thanks to tanewbie. I wanted to send this personally but decided to share the same on the forum. Much appreciate your link, which has helped me to download both the BSE and the NSE data into Amibroker. Your BSE file is upto the 25th. Any chance of having the dates upto end, then I can set it up to download from the Net with Yahoo or would I be making a mistake based on the fact that Yahoo is not weighted for the last 30 minutes as per one post on Traderji site? Are your BSE details last closing price or also weighted?

One feels like a small kid, the look ma no hands feeling when one does something brand new, gets through the initial hiccups and gets around to making sense of a basically non-sensical world. I guess you all have taken the cup and the Vanilla ice-cream as far as helping out is concerned. I would love to do the favor and will certainly try and assist others where I can. I guess that is the least we can do, to ensure continuity.

I am into reading Illuminati & the Free Masonry conspiracies and feel quite dis-illusioned generally regarding what we leave behind for our children and their children. In such introverted moods, I have been trying to learn about stocks and stock markets. This month has been a high learning curve and about reaching the fun part, now that I have the necessary tools. Looks like the market did bottom out on June 8th of thereabouts, is it not?

And the grapevine says that we will probably hit 12500 either post or pre Diwali and a correction is in the offing. So in such scenarios what does one really do? I vacilliate between two modes - not to dabble in shares, as was the traditional opinion that I grew up with or to be educated which after going one full circle, I laugh at. We are probably the least educated life forms around, aptly put by Mr. Smith in Matrix... that we are the only ones who multiply without regard to balance and simply devour our surroundings and move on. But this is true of the Occident rathen than the Orient, and I am not being racist here. With the advent of free credit and consumerism and Monsanto I worry what is going to be the state of affairs once these leeches leave India and China into tatters.

I used to be so European or American thanks to our skewed English Medium upbringing that I am finally understanding how much the Orient has contributed to the balance, and that includes our Mothers who saved and toiled, even saving the Alumium foil on the milk bottle to sell to the Kabadiwala.

Looking for souls who are interested in educating the un-educated young people of India to share and tell them about the shadow world behind the Illusion which controls us all.

I am sharing this on purpose, so that you get to know me better and you see the flesh and blood behind our Internet based privacy.

Many thanks once again, and I will keep all posted as to what is happening to our small world and where my hopes and aspirations take me, not that I have any at the moment.

Jayesh, sometimes wish one did not seek the Truth but then it must be an Indian or in-built thing.

Satya, I am looking at 15-20% conservative returns. Simplifying a MNC lifestyle to a forest or farm based Rishi's. Want to go the Vanaprasthashrama way, have semi retired and travel for work. Concentrating on learning the ropes to understand if the stock market is to be part of my investment horizon or not. Been a sceptic about it for a long time and am beginning to take some risks as a certain quantum has been achieved.

Hi Jayesh

BSE files I take from yahoo group.
Join this group
http://in.groups.yahoo.com/group/bse-nse2005/

Cheers and welcome!

So this is how I can personally thank you. Been a netizen for a long time, since 1994 when the Internet hit the UAE where we have stayed for a long time.

Returned to Mother India in 1999 and only now have started dabbling in stocks, having secured some basic things. Last month has been an intensive affair with learning about software for tracking etc. I do need a Guru to point me in the right directions regarding assumptions and hypothesis. Has anyone done a simulation based on expectation models? How does one apply probablity to individual stocks. If one has n0..n10 stocks to play with, then what quantities does one buy based on their individual variance and standard deviation and what parameters must one look up.

As I mentioned am reading up what is available but looking at statistical modelling and approches to investing - purely academic till one understands. I question whether this can actually be done, but would like other opinions.

Jayesh