Ncdx Trading Tips

Agree with you Sona ji. Guar seems to have turned around(hopefully!). I have gone long at 1730 level.(april)

guar is beating badly b coz bumper crop of rayda so trader are in intersting in rayda and no fresh demand of guar so buy on lower and stay long

Thanks to all members for replying updates on guar.
feeling some what relieved now.Becoz i thought that from april to july guar remains in bull control; like last year they shoot upto 2300 - 2400. But wasnt expecting this much of beat up. anyways

Urad did open firm yesterday but closed weak in the end. thats not good sign for bulls. market is in mixed mode can swing both way depending on what news comes from burma and Andhra?? so keep an eye on that!!

Chana is a good buy on dips for long term possibly may or june contract.Poor crop in Rajastha and + PAKISTAAN is a net buyer from Australia which was last year a full time seller and has flooded mumbai ports with 100 ds Containers of chana.(Pakistaan crop is a major factor this year)

Tur as i written earliar that Ncdex will allow the little bit damaged crop of Burma for delevery. so crashed all the way down.

Hello

Chilli has touched 4000.00 is it still advisable to buy at this level . Anyone in this field pls comment . Adisaleem ur comments too .

Excellent Analysis on Chilli Adisaleem..Please keep more such stuff coming in..Congrats

Chili futures gained remarkably on fear of crop damage in chilli-growing regions of Andhra Pradesh on Wednesday. Large scale speculative buying also propelled chilli prices in the sector. A bearish tone persisted in NCDEX Chilli futures during closing session due to lackluster buying support in the futures as well as in the spot.
NCDEX March chilli traded in the range of Rs.3,396 to Rs.3,681, before closing at Rs.3,681, up by Rs.304 per 100 Kg. The open interest and volume improved to 5,300 tonnes and 26,405 tonnes respectively. April contract went up by Rs.228 to Rs.4,024 per 100 Kg. June contract opened at Rs.4,315 jumped to Rs.4,518 and closed Rs.256 higher to 4,518 per 100 Kg.

The farmers are also not bringing their goods in the market in the anticipation on bullish trend in the near term. This has led to decline in arrivals at the trading terminals. Chilli prices expected to increase further by Rs.200-250 per quintal in the near session. However, profit booking expected, which could revert the prices to some extent, but overall tone is bullish.

Today I'm looking at Urad and Tur on the buy side. Any ideas?

PS:Please place strict stoploss for saftey

Arrivals of Desi Urad in Andra have increased , Rates in Andhra have dropped a bit , another shipment is due i Mumbai any time now . These factors may put pressure on the prices . However its urad so never know . Just take care in the positions u take .

Chilli prices are expected to shoot up once again as
market facing tight supply situation. Today’s
arrivals in the Guntur market are 25000 bags lesser
then yesterday’s 30000 bags. Today’s Spot rates
quoting at Rs. 3500 to Rs. 3700 for Sannam and
334 Chilli variety. Supply to market was delayed
due to rain and damage to the quality. About 50%
crop is estimated to be less this season. Huge
demand from north Indian market due to Holi
festival can further drive the prices to higher levels.

Turmeric prices are likely to fall further arrivals in
the market touching 15000 bags per day. Price may
show slight upward movement as there is good
demand due to festival.

Jeera looks extremely weak as huge arrivals in
the market (about 20000 bags per day) pulling down
the prices. Fresh harvested crop started arriving to
the market and lack of export orders can further
hinder the prices.

I believe in investing for a span of 1 or 2 months and not intra day or weekly. Please do not follow these analysis blindly. Commodities market anything can happen. One of our best members MR ncdx is not arround anymore because of the bad treatment he got here. Lets make sure that this is a place where we have good people educating us and sharing their analysis. If anyone follows a tip from this thread and trades it is his/her trade and his/her responsibility and no one else. If any1 of us knew how the market would behave in the future we all would be billionaires and maybe give bill gates a competition. I believe that the trick is SELF CONTROL. i remember making 1 lakh starting with 18k in 3 months and in the next 15 days losing all the one lakh. Do analysis , do less trades , complete the trade, remove your money, then re enter into another such cycle is what i have learnt. Do not try to average in a commodity market. I feel we need to have strict targets. There are many commodities that are range bound in a large way. If you consider a 6 months time frame then you can make a lot of money. for example i remeber buying mentha oil at Rs 350 when the contract freshly started last may. I was quite sure it would come back to the same level or maybe 50 Rs higher. So even Rs 700 was a good Shot sell provided there is capacity to hold and roll over. Now i feel Urad is over priced and so is tur. If you can hold for 6 months (max) i am sure it would come back to 2200 and 1600 respectively. Please do not apply the same logic for gold silver and crude.
My feeling is that CRUDE will fall below 55 dollors in the next 3 months.

TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK

Regards
Adil Saleem

Both have gone up reasonably well today. This was meant for purely a day trade, and no carry over psotions suggested.