Is 45000 coming in Sensex or its BS

Dear traders,

I see some brokerage firms, news channels and even today a news paper headlines was SENSEX is about to reach 45000 if the new govt forms. How many of you feel that its true news and how many feel that its Bull****. Post your hard and soft reviews on this topic please. When they are giving such a big target and fooling other peoples, why can't they predict and post what is gonna to happen tmrw...

Just reminding few year old story.

When Crudeoil came near 7700 most of the people gave a target of 8500+ but unfortunately it never touched 8000 tooo...
For Gold and silver similar story applied too... as it came to lows...

Share similar news and incidents too...

Useless prediction, they don't know and they never predict what is going to happen tomorrow, where is the question of long term prediction....throw the article in dust bin....or use it as a tissue in toilet...

Sensex going to 45000 is possible in 3-4 years if the country gets stable new Government and the new Government gets its act togather and accelerates the reforms and growth process. Just a stable Govt will not take the index that high...

There will always be some stocks which generate above average earnings and hence will appreciate faster than the Sensex. Investors can identify such companies and invest in them.

For traders we have to be careful when all start talking about Sensex 45000.The crowd is never known to be right at important market turns.

But if we get a stable Govt, the market will go up handsomely...that is for sure....


Smart_trade

Just posted this today on another thread.

http://www.traderji.com/general-tra...ney-markets-method-madness-47.html#post960095

How to identify Market Tops ?

Excerpts taken from the book, Technical Analysis Simplified by Martin Pring.

Very relevant even for today.I think the 5th point is what we are discussing here.

1)In order for a bull top to be formed , it must be preceded by a bull market , a rally of atleast 9 months.
2)Look at the market breadth.Has the number of new net highs diverged negatively with the major averages?If this is not , this may not be a top.If it has then there a fewer number of stocks driving the market higher,and this is sign of weakness.If the number of highs has decreased considerably,it means that it is becoming more difficult to make money as the selection process is getting more and more difficult.
3)Short term oscillators may be registering mega-oversold or extreme swing conditions.
4)If key companies report excellent earnings and the stocks decline,this adverse response to good news indicates extreme technical weakness.Remember,if good news cannot send a security higher,what will?
5)If the media are full of optimistic news and stories of huge returns are being publicized,this is a type of atmosphere associated with a top.
6)Since brokerage houses thrive on bull markets,they become very prosperous.If you see reports of any of these companies moving into larger and more expensive office accommodations,this is often a sign that the uptrend is in a very mature stage.

6th point in reverse , many brokers closed their branches in 2013, its was an indicator of market is going for an uptrend

Smarttrade,

I agree that market may go up but I dont believe the fact that the index reaching 45000 within 3-4 yrs. Appreciation of index 100% with new all time high is not an easy task in any country despite of stable or unstable government. Remembering the fact that there is always opposition parites for any government to screw.. irrespective of its stability

IMO
We should not make fun of such predictions.

Not very long ago (in 2003) Nifty was below 1000 levels
And in January 2008 Nifty was 6350+
Had anyone imagined in 2003, that Nifty will be more than 6 times in next 5 years or so.

Another example
Had anyone imagined in 2003 Nifty will be about 7 times in next 11 years or so.

IMO, no one would have imagined.

Why going far
When Nifty was at 6100 levels, last year, I wrote in a thread that, in near future, we might be in a bull run and gave some targets. And a member made fun of my post.

And now, we are above one of the levels posted there and at some distance from other one.

But let us not waste our energy in discussing how far (further high from here) Nifty can go now or in near future.
Our topic of discussion should be,
Can Nifty go down to lower levels.
If yes, then what lower levels we can see in near future.

When some people make fun of giving such a big target why dont we make fun of them. IF they would have given a target of 5k or 10k then its atleast or may be acceptable but 23k???. Thanks for posting your views on nifty which has appreciated earlier but that % cannot be expected in nowadays. Just comparing how many traders were in india in 2003 but now?. I am not against anybody who is predicting the future but this is extreme politics if you look indepth behind the 45k statement. Lets see post 16th MAY how many of the people disappear with their views on sensex 45k.

market may soar to greater highs... I think it's certainly possible...
for few simple reasons:
Technology is on accelerated path...
The volume of prosperous middle class has been expanding...
Global networks, opportunities and everything seems to be on accelerated path...
Things that were dream are only click away...
A ton of industrial disruptions are aligned to dawn on us.... (3D printing, digital finance based on distributed technologies ex: bitcoin... etc etc).
Brand new millionaires and billionaires are constantly being minted in India...

I think its simply a function of time X technology X demography...
forget who runs the country... its irrelevant... (okay except for totally corrupt totalitarian govt.s... )

So.........

Things are compounding over time, so no on should be surprised if some one senses acceleration... in higher index levels...

but I have a feeling... the accelerated growth... will occasionally stop and CREEP THE HELL out of ordinary people bcoz of the new disruptions, produce crashes and move forward without much fuss... and that's where as traders we are going to have ton of fun !

that's my naive world view

So do we have,
higher market levels : yes
higher volatility : yes for that too
greater fun : yes, yes and yes!