Sensex at 10K : are we ready ?

arun · #21 3rd February 2006, 01:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bharatk8

it is premature to predict onset of bear trend.traditionally end of bull run is marked by a scam.as there is no news of scam in the air, only corrections can be expected.as current rise is gradual,we can not expect deep correction similliar to one witnessed in october.

Bear markets generally begin in anticipation decrease in corporate profits, or a correction of overvaluation (i.e., stocks were too expensive and fell to more reasonable levels). Investors who are scared by these lower earnings or lofty valuations sell their stock, causing the price to drop. This causes other investors to worry about losing the money they've invested, so they sell as well; the vicious cycle begins.

Most scams accelerate the bear markets in India.

Agilent · #22 3rd February 2006, 10:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bharatk8

it is premature to predict onset of bear trend traditionally end of bull run is marked by a scam as there is no news of scam in the air, only corrections can be expected.as current rise is gradual,we can not expect deep correction similliar to one witnessed in october.

Bharat

With respect, I dont think you can generalise about the end of bull run being marked by a scam.

Do you suggest (as a corollary) that the bull run will continue indefinitely as long as we keep scams away?

No my friend, even in the complete absence of a scam, the market trend will be ripe for reverse when corporate EPS growth will slow down or turn negative ... and IMHO maybe we are in for that situation for 2006. Mind you, not Earnings growth, but EPS growth (surely you know the difference)

So the correction we are seeing right now could well be the onset of a bear trend.

Of course only time (and GOD) can tell whether the currrent correction is
- only a minor correction ( i.e a week or two)
- a secondary correction lasting a mth or more, or ..
OR : the worst case scenario, i.e
- the onset of a bear market

AGILENT

vsparikh · #23 3rd February 2006, 11:05 PM

The 10K does not look to be very far or difficult at present conditions of the market. Immediate trend does not call for it so fast as still some downward trend is expected to continue, may be to the levels of 9500/9400? ! The time for it is approximately 15 trading sessions.

Saint · #24 4th February 2006, 11:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Agilent

Bharat

With respect, I dont think you can generalise about the end of bull run being marked by a scam.

Do you suggest (as a corollary) that the bull run will continue indefinitely as long as we keep scams away?

No my friend, even in the complete absence of a scam, the market trend will be ripe for reverse when corporate EPS growth will slow down or turn negative ... and IMHO maybe we are in for that situation for 2006. Mind you, not Earnings growth, but EPS growth (surely you know the difference)

So the correction we are seeing right now could well be the onset of a bear trend.

Of course only time (and GOD) can tell whether the currrent correction is
- only a minor correction ( i.e a week or two)
- a secondary correction lasting a mth or more, or ..
OR : the worst case scenario, i.e
- the onset of a bear market

AGILENT

Great stuff,Agilent..........keep em coming!

Saint

moneylaundrer · #25 4th February 2006, 11:20 PM

A classical battle of the Bulls vs the Bears...
This is the stage where the markets are at this crucial point...
Many times in the past 6 months v have seen just when the bears start gaining in confidence..the Bulls come and sweep the markets leaving the bears covering their shorts and their pride...

On a more specific note the market luks tired signified most by the week's advance declines ratios..

I wont predict the markets but in all likelyhood the huge amounts of money is waiting in the sidelines from MFs that wil enter the moment there is a correction..so no long term bearish trend expected yet ..not atleast till the budget...
Im sure everyone has heard the story about the wolf and the 3 pigs...
Everytime before the wolf blew a storm he took a deep breath in..thats what the market is doing rite now..."taking a deep breath before it blows the final storm and push"
So its better to face in the right direction or stay away else u might be swept of ur feet

Regards
ML

Agilent · #26 5th February 2006, 08:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Agilent

OK since no one is willing to stick his/her neck out and opine whether we have an H&S in early formative stages, let me make one last attempt:

pl see link which makes the issue / question more easy to understand
http://img519.imageshack.us/img519/2654/sensex6yz.jpg

Will really be pleased to have some expert (or other, simple common-sensical) opinions

Thanks
AGILENT

Maybe its time to re-assess the question I had raised i this thread on 28th Jan .... whether we are seeing the formation of a H&S and (as corollary) the end of the bull run

(C'mon folks, isn't 4+ years long enuf for a party?)http://finance.**********/q/bc?s=%5EB...=on&z=l&q=b&c=

Traderji, Amitbe, Saint... others with expertise on long term reversal patterns (notably H&S) ... lets have your considered views ! Amit... you had opined then that its too early to say for sure... I entirely agree with you, but let's look at the 'fundamental' backdrop as well: I mean the high probability of EPS growth dwindling this year (remember .. markets move in anticipation of all trends). That scenario, in my view will underpin the reversal , whenever it happens.

AGILENT

PS
Saint.. Thanks for your recent compliments
ML : Feels good to have brought some cheer to you earlier on

moneylaundrer · #27 5th February 2006, 08:52 PM

Hi agilent,
My friend ur posts always bring much joy to my days proceedings.
Its more ur strong will to predict the markets that make it interesting..
Now since ur so convinced that the pattern that v seee is a Head and shoulders trend revesral then my friend u must also stop giving up on the idea that 10,000 is an eventuallity in the near term caus then according to...ur own theory..th top has already been made of the head..and the second top made ie the right shoulder should certainly be lower than the present top..
Now dont u think that u might have ended up contradicting urself initially by stating that 10,000 is near and that this is the home stretch...

Cheers
ML

Agilent · #28 5th February 2006, 11:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moneylaundrer

Hi agilent,
My friend ur posts always bring much joy to my days proceedings.
Its more ur strong will to predict the markets that make it interesting..
Now since ur so convinced that the pattern that v seee is a Head and shoulders trend revesral then my friend u must also stop giving up on the idea that 10,000 is an eventuallity in the near term caus then according to...ur own theory..th top has already been made of the head..and the second top made ie the right shoulder should certainly be lower than the present top..
Now dont u think that u might have ended up contradicting urself initially by stating that 10,000 is near and that this is the home stretch...

Cheers
ML

ML
You floored me ( but only shows you have been imbibing the entire content of this thread)

But gimme a break please ... no body is perfect ... and in any case, I am human, not GOD

AGILENT

Agilent · #29 7th February 2006, 12:10 AM

Sensex at 10k ... we are ready ???

Dont get emotional folks... keep booking those profits

Those of you who saw all analyst interviews on TV... note how divergent some views were

And in general terms, divergence spells uncertainty.

Cheers

Agilent · #30 8th February 2006, 12:01 AM

Folks ... how many of u watched Mark Faber's interviews on TV.

What comments?

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