Please throw lights on SUGAR Industry or SUGAR Cycle

Dear All,

I've been looking this industry and trying to get an idea about it for a long time, but most of it is still very much confusion since i didnt get any concrete info on net. I guess post should be the end for it. Here's my questions.

What is world sugar consumption yearly?

How much is india's consumption?

How does sugar pricing works?

What decontrol is left in the sugar industry?

How to relate the cycle?

what is this levy quota?

How much exports will benefit india?

what is Export license?

Why there is change in sugar price. In india it is Rs.25 and world price is Rs.40

Why farmers gets paid less. Now it is Rs.160 or Rs.170 (Not sure)
They say, the price is not sufficient. this is why it leads to lack of production to this crop. why is this? what govt should do to this?

Please help me to understand this. A proper answer to this will not only help me but many.

Thanks,
Hariom.

analysts usually say sugar stock prices move in cycles.
I too want to know more about it

Global scenario
World sugar balance expected to see a downside
While global sugar consumption has registered a CAGR of 2.3% over the
1999-2010 period, global production has registered a CAGR of 1.7% over
the 1999-2009 period. The expected decline in world production in 2011
led by adverse weather conditions has brought down the closing stock
estimates of the world. Moreover, the largest sugar supplier of world,
Brazil, has witnessed a decline in the production to 35 MT from the
previously estimated 37 MT on the back of drier weather conditions . Also, with declining output concerns in Russia, China
and Pakistan, global surplus estimates have been revised to 2.1 MT from
previous estimates of 5.2 MT for 2011.

Exhibit 11: World sugar balance (in million tonnes)
2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11E
Production 166.0 168.6 161.5 163.7 163.8
Consumption 153.5 158.8 161.7 163.9 167.5
Closing stock 67.9 74.0 66.3 60.6 58.6
Closing Stock (Months) 5.3 5.6 4.9 4.4 4.2
Source: ISO & Company Reports
Sugar rate is nowhere in India below 30 Rs now
China and pakistan facing flood and can create pressure on world over
Sugar sector already bottom out and seeing some buying interest
Festival season now coming with increase in demand it can reach 40+ again and distelleries and ethnol also going to rise due to crude and festive season

Seasonal industries like sugar, tea, etc could not be judged easily. it is like gambling only

I think same goes true for fertilizer and railway stocks.

better to avoid them.

yes for that keep an eye when they are down and enter :thumb:
exit when stock is rally towards north:thumb:
it apply in all sectoral stocks

when sakthi sugar was quoting around Rs.90/- + I thought the price is down, looking the fundamentals; but now they have fallen down about 50%. so it is highly unpredictable