Help needed on equity portfolio...

#1
Hi everyone!

I have been building up my equity portfolio over the past few months and have invested over 15 lakhs on the same. This is down by about 1.4 lakhs at this point of time

Need your expert help on analyzing the same and recommending if I should hold the portfolio or some portion of it...

Murali
 

d_s_ramesh

Well-Known Member
#3
Please send your holdings details and the time frame you have choose to keep invested in the stocks which you have selected, to my PM, I will check if all of them are still worth the holding potential.

Though the markets have very strong bearish strength on the longer time frames, it is not giving in. Every bear attempt is foiled and a new high keeps reaching. So there is possibilities of the market going higher from here too.

But it is not going to be a run away rally taking all the stocks with it. Only a very selected few sectors have some strength to move up at present. And in those sectors there are very few strong stocks, since they are all leaders of their receptive industries the market on hole is managing to keep its head above water and surfing higher too.

Please keep in mind that the market is topped out on the higher time frames, running up just on stimulus provided by the governments worldwide. Once they dry out, there is going to be a prolonged sideways market. This is for the long term. It is vice to have some strategy and with the use of it liquidate positions at the appropriate levels when markets turn down or go sideways.
 

premium

New Member
#4
Hi everyone!

I have been building up my equity portfolio over the past few months and have invested over 15 lakhs on the same. This is down by about 1.4 lakhs at this point of time

Need your expert help on analyzing the same and recommending if I should hold the portfolio or some portion of it...

Murali
Hi,

I have attached my portfilio, kindly advice...:thumb:

regards,
Murali
 

d_s_ramesh

Well-Known Member
#6
Though a well distributed portfolio, I find that many of the stocks have been entered recently at the high of the market. Averaging has been done; don’t know whether it was done after the positions started losing. Should not average a loser, once your position is trailing it is already in fire, you add more fuel. It will only burn more brightly; we can only have fun of bright light (losing capital).

Money management is totally absent. You buy a stock at some level based on some value that stock has developed. The price fall to a certain extent can still have the prevailing values. Once a limit is crossed it does for some real reason, may be the value itself is lost. So you should never take a position even if it is long term without a stop loss strategy. Long term does not mean unlimited time. It should not be used as a garb to cloth blood.
Follow a stop loss mechanism, exit once it is hit. Many of the stocks in your portfolio have lost more than 30%. RCOM and BHARTI seems to be bought at the previous highs, you had good opportunities to have exited them when the tide changed down. Bharti still lags response, RCOM though looking up now is a far cry to your entry price. Exited earlier, now you have the chance to enter again at fairly low levels and make profits.

BARTRONICS, EDUCOMP
have had better exit levels before they turned bearish. INDIACEM is not in trend even in the long term. SUZLON might get a chance to do better but that will come at a fairly lower price now. It gave a final trend exit at 81.60 before going flat for a few months.

While AXIS Bank can be held, not KOTAK. KOTAK is a dead stock in the banking arena; it gave an exit at 725 and never saw the previous highs. ELFORGE has lost more than 75%, hoping that it will return above your entry levels are beyond day dreaming.

In some of the stocks like HOTLEELA, I find that you have developed a close relationship with them like a Mother/son, husband/wife that is why you had been able to hold on to the pains when it dropped to the 15 levels. I feel you have gone through a tremendous emotional stress holding these positions. At least now you have got some losses covered.

Though your portfolio is diverse, stock selection has been poor. You have missed many of the big wigs of the industries. DRREDDY has had a solid run from 479, but your statement says entry at 1489 just below the top.

Now that the market is flat and kind of risky, many of the stocks in your portfolio have retraced clear bearish divergences and are likely to fall any time. Better protect the capital with stop loss, though the next moves in the market would not be a fall like we have had in 2008. It is not going to be rosy ride like we have had even in 2009 for the next few years.

Food processing and healthcare segments will perform better in turbulent times. This is a proven fact for more than a century. Apart from those stocks others look weak. Maintaining stop loss and go on a planned exit. Once out of all the dud stocks you can look to enter into the next trend in a better manner.

Instead of entering a stock in one tranche, once you decide to buy a stock. Check the risk you need to take on it. Then find out how many shares you can buy or willing to buy. Divide that into four, as a first step buy 25% quantity, then when the stock starts moving up start adding in a slow manner. In this process you may end up having only 80 or even a lesser percentage of your planned exposure, because your stop loss would increase as the price moves up. But the safety of owning a winning stock is a great emotional advantage. Your average acquisition price too would be less; your position would be showing a profit.

Rather a downside averaging will only add to your losses on every average. I have put out the basics here in a nutshell. With a planned approach to the markets, you can make good gains. I have given stop losses for few stocks, if you like to follow this method. Then please contact me, I will spend some time with you over chat & I can teach you some basics. There are no Holy Grail methods of making money, make your own decisions. Take responsibility for all your decisions, learn from every move, and do not commit a mistake. A mistake is a mistake only if it is repeated a second time, first time it is learning.
 
Last edited:

Similar threads