Looking for advice and HELP!

I am a senior citizen, pretty old. In January 2007, I was sitting with stocks valued approx. Rs. 3 crores. Since then, there has been continuous erosion and today my portfolio is worth hardly Rs. 50 lakhs, apart from an investment of Rs. 17 lakhs for a flat (total cost 60 lakhs). Unable to chart the course for realising the dream of possessing a roof.

Since the fall, I have tried to study Technical Analysis, Fundamental approach, etc. Yet I do not see any light at the end of the tunnel. Now that time to depart is aproaching nearer and nearer, there is a sense of urgency.

Mastering skill in Technical Analysis in a short time does not appear feasible. Like catching the falling knife, valuation based investment of what is left too is not so easy. Not knowing how to salvage my financials, the challenge matters seems to growing bigger and bigger.

One feels DEPRESSED and confused. Thechnical Analysis or Valuation based investing? Potfolio Management? Charting own way or placing funds with some Technical or Fundamental experts? What would be the optimum strategy?

Looking forward to receiving guidance from experts!

Hi RDS.

I presume 1933 is your birth year, and you are really Senior to all.

First and the most important thing that you should note : Try to stay relaxed. Which I know is NOT easy.

Second, considering that the erosion of stock related investment wealth was from 300 lacs to 50 lacs, there is nothing that can get you back all the money over night. So, it would be wise to find ways and means.

Third, the Mutual Funds are sitting tight because they have also gone through similar stage. almost all of them who are considered as experts to common man. Thats why the common man does NOT get into equities directly, but opts for MF route because it is assumed that MFs are run by experts.

So, even if you come across someone claiming to be an expert to get all the lost wealth back to you overnight or within a year, I would doubt it. Even if the person sounds very convincing, I may take a risk of not more than 5 lacs.

You have tried learning Technical Analysis, Fundamental analysis, etc. Good. But it shall not help you at this moment, because almost everything is down.

It is anticipated that the conditions shall continue to prevail till atleast March 2010.

So, I am giving below my comments for your consideration. It is your money, and you should be the person to decide about its re-investments.

First. The Fundamentals of many companies have been shaken up due to the Global situations. Few things one should always keep in mind for any company, are

- EPS or Earning Per Share
- Face Value & Book Value of the share
- P/E Ratio, which is the ratio of the Share Price existing in the market at any given time to the Earnings per Share.

If you buy only one copy of Capital Market or Dalal Street, it would give you these details. You could compare the companies under similar status, for example all PSU banks, all private banks, and check the differences and come to your own conclusion.

Using this info, check the status of the stocks that you are holding. You would find that here are some stocks, which are changing very less, but there are some other stocks, which are having a large change.

So, the Fundamentals help you in selecting the stocks to be bought or sold. The Technical shall tell you when they are to be bought or sold.

There are threads under Equity section in this Forum, where you could get comments about various stocks. The comments may or may not be from experts, so take your time to settle down in understanding this forum and the members comments.

It appears that you had invested everything only in Stocks. One should also keep the other options such as Gold, Real estate, Bank FDs, etc.

It is anticipated that the current price of US $ 840 per ounce may [repeat may] go up. If it crosses and stays above 1000 dollars per ounce, then it is expected to cross 1400 US $. But then, one needs to wait for that to happen. One ounce is little over 31 gms.

Alternatively, it may fall also. In that case, you could get 100g Pure Gold of 0.999% purity for less than one lac. This pure gold is available in sealed packs and for investment purposes only. So if one needs to sell them back, then there is no deduction towards the usage of gold, like it is done for the jewellery.

Finally, I would like to add that do not consider yourself as a person having failed in investing. You are not the only one. Many major financial institutions in USA have failed to a larger extent.

You should NOT have any guilty feeling what so ever. Remain cheerful. Spend the time in reading comments in different threads in this forum than listening to CNBC, NDTV, who only mis-guide [in my opinion, and I could be wrong]

Do NOT rush in taking any decision. Take your own time in ensuring that what you are going to do is correct. Be sure that nothing worse could happen overnight or even in weeks or months.

Stay relaxed. It will help you in taking a proper decision.
Cheers, Good Luck and Merry Christmas.

Thank you very much, sir!

RDS Sir,
I am so sorry to hear about your case. But you are not alone. Most of the people nearing retirement or already retired are facing this situation. Most of professionals, govt, people,business were not prepared for this "Once in a century" phase that we are facing now. The picture is lot more gloomy in developed western world.
I feel incapable to reply to senior person like you kyonki it will be "Chhota Muhn Baadi baat" but still felt the part of your pain and desperation to search for ray of hope, so writing to you.

I came across piece of gudence given by an instructor when he was posed with questions from retired people on the state of retirement funds.

Having seen so much in life, you must be knowing it well kee paisa haath kaa maail hai. Yeh aata aur jaata rahta hai. Aur agar gaya hai tho wapas aa bhee jayega.. As human being, we need to be strong enough to live thru downturn. At such tough time, if we look at other areas, appreciate what God has given us, how blessed we are, there are lot bigger pain in this world that people are going thru right now and our pain is nothign compare to theirs. Then our attitude towards changes and we do see reason to move forward.

I don't know if you realise or not but I have found certain things to appreciate about it..
- at this age you are ready to learn Tech Analysis and fundamental analysis
- ready to take charge and willingness to improve your fin status.
- active in this internet forum, u know internet which my parents born in 50s can't do it
- not afraid to pose your problem to people younger then you and asking for help
- If you have these qualities, then I am sure you are surrounded by people whom you have passed these positive attributes during past years.

So, RDS sir, it is just another phase and will pass soon. In absolute terms, the networth that u have is not small. It is seriously big enough that needs to managed.
You will find contradictory suggestions from different people and that might confuse you. But take your own decision. If I can suggest something then

1) Be your own finance manager. Do not trust others with your money. You can use their service to let your money grow.. but still u are the manager of your finance. You should call the shot, not they. Most of so called expert on CNBC, fund manager, MF agents, PMS managers, never tell us when to SELL. They always say BUY and hold (and keep praying when it goes down). So start focusing on SELL side and put filter on whatever they are recommending.

2) choose technical or fundamental approach to make your investment decisions (I am more comfortable with technical apporach which is lot less ambiguous then fundamental).

3) Diversify your assets (as suggested by S_S as well). Keep someting in more liquid form like Cash, FD, Debt funds etc. Keep only that much part of networth in Market which u can afford to risk (and loose without affecting your other needs of the life).

4) TAKE ACTION however small it may be but TAKE ACTION. Finally thats what will make the difference. Don't suffer by Analysis Paralysis.

New year is here to kickstart new phase..

Wishing you Happy new year and better financial and personal health in 2009.

Dear RDS,

I am no senior than you, still I would like to share something I know with my friend.

1. The root cause for your depressed feeling is not because of what is happened
Just because of the way your perceive things. I know it is easier to preach rather than to practice. Still it is a reality.

Good living and good stock market participation has one thing in common. Accepting the reality.

If you accept the reality, if you don't blame yourself or anybody else for that, you make it.

I suggest you not to watch TVs, read Newspapers. I don't see a point that you could do something useful by having an eye on daily market movements and news.

I don't see any reason that you start to chart out an action plan right now. And I am going to tell you anything that could help you to manage your holdings.

Do not forget the fact that Stocks lie in category of high risk asset class. I just request you to stay calm.

How are you doing these days? Just check whether you have any sleep disorder or worry. If so, take steps to overcome those poisonous problems. Like meditation, relaxation, breathing exercise etc.,

Just imagine the fact that people lost their lives in Tsunami, earth quakes, every other natural calamity that is not in our hands. If you compare those, you could understand the very fact that you have not lost something more precious than life

No way I mean you can not get back your investments. I just try to tell you that just be out of thoughts about your investments and take some breath and rest so that you can come again to plan things with an renewed energy

You just need patience. No more, no less.

Take Care,

Love,
Gsalvadi

I would like to onvey my sincere thanks to AW10 as well as Gsalvadi. People have their own problems to attend to. That you found time to respond to my issues made me feel grateful to you as also to SS who responded earlier.

Thanks again

rds

Respected Sir,

Every one of us feel others pain as we are Human. Empathy is nothing but imagining oneself in a situation and our innate ability to "experience" the pain, someone could feel, as far as Psychology explains it.

Thanks

deleted............

pasha.. this is age old thread.. started in Dec-2008. Hope he stayed invested and got reward from the 1 yr bull rally of Q2-2009 to Q1-2010.

anyway, your views are always welcome.

Thanks Aw10, visited here from your link in the other thread and didn't look at the date