India wins over NSG

vpsarathy

Active Member
#1
Friends,

India's victory at the NSG meet inspite of China's efforts are laudable. All credit goes to our Prime Minister.

I feel this will give a positive push to the stock market. Will someone list the companies that supply components, raw materials,sub assemblies to Nuclear reactors, please? These companies will shine from now on and their stocks too. I feel it is worth our while investing/trading the stocks of these companies.

Awaiting your list and comments pro/con both from seniors and not so seniors but knowledgeable members of the forum

vps
 

pkjha30

Well-Known Member
#2
Friends,

India's victory at the NSG meet inspite of China's efforts are laudable. All credit goes to our Prime Minister.

I feel this will give a positive push to the stock market. Will someone list the companies that supply components, raw materials,sub assemblies to Nuclear reactors, please? These companies will shine from now on and their stocks too. I feel it is worth our while investing/trading the stocks of these companies.

Awaiting your list and comments pro/con both from seniors and not so seniors but knowledgeable members of the forum

vps
Yes , It good news. Earlier Left was kept busy at Nandigram then shown the door and during crucial meet of NSG they were busy solving Singur.Master outflanking strategy of INC for the leftouts.

Amar Singh of SP took the cudgel on behalf of INC after being in Margins for quite some time and kicked in the butt by Mayawati of UP.

BJP never knew whether to support or oppose as it was their idea initially. They had only declared unilateral moratorum. KALAM and Brajesh , both supported the deal and BJP didn't know what further to say.

Pranab Mukherjii, who missed PM's post by whisker, had his last laugh.

This deal also exposed the murky underbelly of political class which was known but acknowledged only outside parliament. Now it is in the parliament.Thank god everybody knows why our political class doesn't need hefty salary which are routinely approved by Parliament in rare consensus approvals.

Everybody will go back to business. Manmohanji is a winner by any standards but INC's electoral prospects doesn't brighten because India is loosing its shine incredibly.

Whoever comes to power will have to feed this nuclear baby.

As for India, its more a victory for NSG in the sense that India was on the verge of completing its Thorium based Nuclear Cycle and becoming largely independent. That means lost business opportunities for USA and other NSG suppliers. Russia and France are in any case our good friends, unlike USA which appears to be fair weather friend.

The only looser in this may be Indian Science and indigenous development of nuclear technology.It appears to be repeat of denial of Super Computers(Cray XMP) which prompted India to develop its own like PARAM and ANURAG and which in turn prompted USA to relax and allow sale of CRAY XMP so our efforts stagnated since then.


Still it will be a Watershed deal and will decide which way our country moves.

pk:)
 

pkjha30

Well-Known Member
#5
Now it is time for USA to worry as NSG waiver is given to India. Rice has asked Indian Govt not to disadvantage American Companies as other countries may not have any compulsions while rushing to sign deals with India. Foremost in this rush will be Russia and France which have long standing support and appreciation of Indian position.

Of course USA has played a leading role in the Nuclear Deal . The Hyde Act was first step which enabled USA to engage Indians on Nuclear issue after Tarapur fiasco( Tarapur fuel supply agreement was also under clause 123 of the USA Atomic Energy Act and was later repudiated unilaterally by USA after Pk-1).Hyde Act sought to amend this Act but with certain conditions. No doubt these are stringent conditions in the Act, but American business may not be allowed to suffer when India is now explicitly acknowledged as having Civilian and Military Nuclear complexes.American Presidents always lied to their public and Congress in the past as their practices show, especially in the context of Pakistan, that includes Democrat Clinton and Republican Reagan.India will certainly oblige Rice in not rushing to deal with other nations till USA position is crystalised. Though USA has tough task on their hand and India after sufficient wait period , may sign agreement with other friendly nations with whom our ties have stood test of the time.

Now , if India is acknowledged as Nuclear Military Power and America constructs say about five nuclear reactors, then naturally they will be inclined to continue their assistance rather than choosing path of confrontation, more so if other countries also build their reactors in India.

Indian Scientists should now demonstrate and develop owr own technology based on Thorium cycle and make us a partner in NSG with equal status.That will be our assurance against future supply disruptions in the remote possibility of all NSG members agreeing to take tough line against India.

Secondly India should continue to develop Military technology and doctrines which envisages use of Nuclear weapons under certain situations.

China has shown time and again , that it can not be trusted , so all our focus must be bench marked against Chinese containment policy rather than Pakistan.Diplomatic efforts should be to resolve Border issues on equal footing rather than from a subservient position.

It is encouraging that Rice has indicated that USA and India could sign 123 deal by end of this month , that means when Indian Parliament convenes deal will be clinched and left will be in the lurch. I feel happy about it though unhappy about the episodes witnessed earlier in the Parliament.

Indians are not white angels so issues of corruption and like things will be there and we may have to guard against it as best as possible.

Nuclear energy may not be able to contribute more than 20 % of the requirement. But the main purpose of the deal would be served if India could engage in trade and commerce in high end technological items which will give needed push to further development and growth.

The key to understanding Nuclear Deal is to view it in its totality. Sovereignty of any country depends on the degree of freedom it has in taking decisions and enforcing it. That depends on factors like economic, technological military, scientific development and with how many nations we have convergence of Ideas and enjoy friendship.

Manmohan Singh, for all his simplicity and seemingly helplessness, will go down in the History as one who achieved this remarkable integration with other countries that matter in the comity of nations.

BJP would have the benefit of initiating the dialogue, but it was ManMohan Singh who achieved this, hence the credit.

Nuclear deal will have positive impact on Indian Economy.

1. It is assumed that India may construct 20-40 reactors in next 40 years. Investment will be in order of many billions. This will have its impact on downstream economy.
2. Employment generation will be huge. It is expected that just as with the introduction of Computers and IT related technology there was huge employment generation in IT sector and spawning of engineering colleges , so will be with this deal.
3. Scientist and engineers in many fields such as Civil, mechanical, Metallurgy, electrical, production etc besides specialized training in Nuclear related technology will have tremendous job opportunities.
4. Companies in Infrastructure, constructions,steel , electrical, real estate cement, power equipment etc will have good opportunities. Such as L&T, BHEl, BEL, TATASTEEL , kalptaru, ptc, Reliance Infra etc. These are only indicative.
5. Deal , by itself , may keep the market from sinking as FDI and FIIS might increase their investment. Inflow of FIIs have certainly picked up.But uncertainty will be there largely due to elections and USA slowdown. The year 2009 will see some of these uncertainties going away and may have positive impact on market.
6. Whosoever will come to Power, will have to carry on with this deal, so impact on it due to election will be minimal.hence market may not be affected due to change in Govt.


These are issues on fundamentals of Economy and market. It will not have bearing on Technical analysis, which is based on price-volume action.Time will only tell how we are able to leverage this deal to our advantage.

pk:)
 

pkjha30

Well-Known Member
#6
So now Bush has invited Manmohan singh to USA on 25th Sept to ink the 123 agreement on Nuclear deal. Deal is already sent to US Congress with interesting but correct explanatory note from Bush.

It has created some sort of storm in tea cup. To cut through the crap appearing in Indian newspaper, any agreement between two sovereign nation is just that, an agreement. There can not be any Legal entity above any sovereign nation to enforce that, not even UN or IAEA.Once the agreement is repudiated it becomes useless and non-enforceable.

Of course it would depend on the power one party to the agreement wields in comparison to other party.

There are several treaties between Russia(formerly main part of USSR), which have been repudiated by USA after cold war-I was over.

Even earlier 123 agreement with India was not honored by USA so what could India do at that time?

As long as relation is profitable , USA and India would abide by the agreement and any further contracts drawn up by commercial interests would be enforceable within respective countries. But once 123 is out so would be other contracts. None of the USA companies would be obliged to continue their work. However It would depend on India , how it reacts to and uses the facilities made available under 123 agreement after it is repudiated.So far India's track record is honorable, meaning India has kept its side of bargain since we were and are led by mostly gutless, spineless leaders.

It would be quite a frightening scenario to bear the full force of USA in case of repudiation and dispute.But one needs to think and plan ahead to avoid over dependence on USA technology and supplies. It would be better for India to cut similar deals with other nations such as France ,Russia , South Africa and may be Australia.

It would also be better to either join NSG as full and equal partner with Nuclear weapons state or to work towards dismantling NSG.Increased commercial interests of many multinational companies from different nations would also ensure some protection from misadventure.

India can also leverage its nuclear technology in achieving self sufficiency in indigenous manufacture of Nuclear reactors. It mean we need to increase our investment in these areas, mainly Reactor technology and uranium exploration, Thorium extraction and FBR type of reactors.

India will also have to demonstrate its hold over military aspect of Nuclear technology, not necessarily by Atom or Hydrogen explosion but by other means such as ICBMs IRBMs etc.

Moreover India could also place some faith in President's abilities to lie to their own people and lawmaker in the supreme commercial interest of USA. It has already happened. But no over reliance on such lying abilities lest by default India gets onto wrong side.

India needs to play on American worries (expressed by Rice when she asked India to wait for Congressional approval before cutting deals with other nations) and get better of them. It would be a good idea if clarifications are sought from USA before 123 deal is inked, while trying to get better terms from others.

pk:)
 
U

uasish

Guest
#7
My HERO is Mrs Indira Gandhi,in my university days seen how India converted East Pakistan to Bangladesh,being at Kolkata could feel the War,how we went almost to Lahore.Reading heroes from book did'nt inspire much than Mrs Gandhi.There is a Book (still banned in our country),a compilation of International Reporters personal eye witnessing atrocites of West Pakistan's military on East Pakistan.

After that became a Fan of Dr Manmohan Singh,when he was Finance Minister under Learned P.V.Narasimha Rao.India LEAPED forward being 55 yrs now could starkly see the improvement of the quality of Life can feel the difference.

Seen how Sam Pitroda under Rajiv Gandhi changed the nation organically in Telecom .
Computers are now an extension not a gadget any more.

This Nuclear thing .............,can envisage how you are going to be counted amongst the Best of the Best,even Soniaji faltered,but the Learned Sarder put his put down & the shrewd Bengali say that the last lap's hurdle is crossed.

Incidentally i am blessed with a grandson recently,they have born to be treated as EQUAL.

N.B.Plz do not by any chance feel that i am a congress supporter.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

renu daga

Well-Known Member
#8
haa

dada what ajoke ,,, congress supporter... saving urself so much form politics!!!cpim should be informed of this...and should be given ur address!!!

congrats,,( if i am not wrong,,,its ur daughters son)

renu
 
U

uasish

Guest
#9
Yeah Renu you guessed correctly,my son is still not officially married hence do not keep track about the unofficial ones.:D
 
#10
Yeah Renu you guessed correctly,my son is still not officially married hence do not keep track about the unofficial ones.:D
Congratulations Ashish! I will now on ditch 'da' since we are almost the same age. My grand daughter turned 5 yrs recently.

You will enjoy every moment you get to spend with the little one. They make you forget the world. Is is a great blessing. Whenever your daughter comes to your home I doubt if you will come to comp to trade at all. Your grandchild will demand all your attention.

Congrats to grand parents again.

vps