Traderji.com Kolkata Meet

Intraday & Prediction:=

All rational people will agree that there is uncertainty in the
stock market, that predicting where prices will go is foolish.
In Science we know how cloud is being formed but can you guess that the most scientifically
developed nations CANT get their Weather Forecast right upto 65 % time.Govt. of each
Republic we see in a political map has a Weather Forecast deptt,think about the combined
Billion Dollars World spend each month !! and through decades of experience;Data; pool of
Statelites;these Guys cant get the Forecast RIGHT.
Then we with a computer & Data & some knowledge have the audacity to think we can Predict
Price,where it involves millions of trades with million different emotion & intention.
Atleast in case of Weather we have 100 % scientific knowledge how & what of Weather.

We think that we can predict where stocks will go, that is the reason we trade the market,
to make money from our predictions.

But no one can predict the market with absolute certainty. Therefore, you have to stop
looking at trading ONE trade at a time. Imagine what would happen to the Mattka owner
who looked at their gambling business one bet at a time. The Mattka can not predict who
will win the SuperLotto or what the next 'Patta' drawn in a game of zero to nine will be.
It can be Ekka or Panja the Operator does not bother they don't try.
Becoz in the Long Haul Probability is going to play in their Favour this Simple fact is
known from the Casino owners of Las Vegas to the 'Mattka' operators of Gujrat.The Gambler
plays AGAINST the House,the House wins by Long Haul as probability is stacked in their
favour.

What the casino does, and what we as a trader should be doing, is trading the probability
of what will happen. The casino makes money because they know what will happen over the
next 1000 hands of blackjack.They have an edge.

The question is, do you have an edge in the market?

Are you trading a strategy that assures you a profit over a large number of trades? If you
are serious about making money in the market, you should be able to define the expected
out come of your trading strategy in the same way that a casino can predict their
profitability from millions of dollars wagered in the pursuit of 21.

How do you calculate your edge? Simply:

((Profit of a successful trade times the probability of a successful trade)
- (loss of an unsuccessful trade time the probability of an unsuccessful trade

As an example, a trade that has a 30% chance of making Rs 5000 and a 70% chance of losing
Rs 1000 has an expected profitability of Rs 800.

Here we see how even a trade that has the odds stacked against it is worth taking because
it has a positive expected outcome. If you make this trade enough times, you will average
Rs 800 in profit per trade.

This means we need to set out on a study to determine the probabilities of profit and loss
for a trading strategy. Establish a set of rules and then test them over a large sample of
trades to determine the expected value of the trade.

But, if we find a trading strategy that has a profitable expected value, are we assured of
success in the same way a casino is assured a profit hosting games of blackjack?

No. In blackjack, there are rules enforced by the casino. The player must give the casino
their money if they go over 21. They must give their money if they have a hand that is
lower than the dealer.

In trading, there is no one to enforce our well tested trading rules except WE. In the
heat of the trading moment, when WE must decide whether to exit the trade at the stop loss
point or hold out for a turnaround, it is only up to US. When we have the choice of
selling for a profit or continuing to hold until we get the sell signal ;though our strategy was
tested for, it is only up to US.

And we, assuming we are a normal human being, are likely to break our own trading rules.

Why?

Because we avoid pain and pursue pleasure. We lack confidence in our strategy because
of our recent experience. We think we can use our better judgment based on what we
are seeing NOW in the Price. We lose your focus.

These are the things that turn the relatively simple pursuit of making money in the market
in to a frustrating, mind numbing and stressful process. Who is at fault?

Only us.

Thank you very much

Regards
Satya

Great post Asishda,you hit the nail on its head.The solution probably is trading a system with positive mathematical expectation for sufficiently long period(number of trades ) to enable the "edge" to manifest itself and wagering small amount every time. Another idea comes to mind is trade number of systems at a time,some trend following and some sideways mkt systems.

Happy trading !!!!

Thks ,though the post may not be at right section but some troll ignited it.

ohh
great
simply superb
regards

Great mindblowing,selfexplanatory
details in a nutshell from Ashisda.
Regards

asish

pl post the kolkata indicator in the above formet so that i can copy and paste directly in metastock the file i downloaded is not geting open

thank you

charan

http://www.traderji.com/metastock/21...tml#post173775

Thank you very much asish this one I have already put in my metastock indicator

What I actually required is the expert adviser you have used in the sample chart you have posted to indicate saint's pivot point with left arrow and right Arrow to indicate the pivot high and the pivot low. Also Pl explain when we Identifying the pivot which one we have to see the open and close or the high and low of the candle . Is the candle colour really matters. Can we use line chart with same principle were it is only based on close

For right understanding Pivot High & Pivot Lows,i am afraid you will have to go through Saint's Thread.