Excerpts from an interview:
Q: We have come back to almost 5100, what does it look like, 4900-5000 will be tested or are we going to bounce back or are we going to test higher levels or even lower levels?
A: The pattern is playing out to the tea. We talked about a couple of days back that one down leg is still left to retest the bottom and this retesting doesnt have to be all the way down at last couple of Tuesdays back at 4,400 or 15,000 it can be a little higher.
My guess is if the pattern plays out normally it goes and tests the 200 day simple moving average which is somewhere between 5,000 and 4,900 on the Nifty. So those levels anywhere between 5,000- 4,860 and 17,100 to 16,700 on the Sensex, I think those levels will be tested.
I dont see it running away as such, there will be enough of opportunities in the period of a week when that testing takes place for you to buy stocks and typically what happens when the market does a 60% retesting, you would be surprised to see how many stocks come back to the lows to the last couple of Tuesdays even though at that point the index was much lower. But that is typical of what a retesting does, so you will get enough opportunities to buy.
The fear this time as compared to the previous occasions, in the previously the fall has been in some sort of a ladder where it keeps on going up and coming down but the trend is a little down and then you get the final pain. This time the pain was in seven days, stocks have fallen 65% to 70%, which has completely wiped out two aspects of the market, the trader side and the retail interest side. Plus you have the FIIs selling on a continuous basis, so three parts out of the four if you leave out the domestic mutual funds that are trying to nibble every day.
So there are three aspects of the market missing out on the buy side which is why the pain is a little more this time and even if we get to those levels, we may not see the sharp bounces that we are used to but we may see more of a consolidation and a base building and then a steady move up.
Q: Can you open up a trade at 5,100 or not quite?
A: I would wait, I am very clear this time the fall was so sharp and it has taken out three aspects from the market already. So any bounce or trade is so low on volume that the moves are going to be a little volatile. The market needs to settle at some point and one is probably better off trading on the up tick a little higher than trying to trade volatility and I dont think it makes sense to trade volatility because the volumes are too thin and movements will be very sharp.
I think one needs to wait for things to settle down. We maybe decoupled in the sense of the economy, but in terms of like everyday you hear different FIIs selling out, they have to off set some of the sub prime losses by selling across Asia and thats still happening, so wait for that to settle down. The way they are selling, they are in no hurry to come back and buy, so the market is going to spend some time at the lower level and consolidate. Its not going to hit some point and run away. You will have enough opportunities, so just wait for it to settle down.
Even if you had some trading sessions where nothing happened, a 50 point band on the Nifty or a 100 -150 point band on the Sensex that might be good for base building. I dont think anybody is interested in seeing 500 points up and another 500 points down.
Q: We have come back to almost 5100, what does it look like, 4900-5000 will be tested or are we going to bounce back or are we going to test higher levels or even lower levels?
A: The pattern is playing out to the tea. We talked about a couple of days back that one down leg is still left to retest the bottom and this retesting doesnt have to be all the way down at last couple of Tuesdays back at 4,400 or 15,000 it can be a little higher.
My guess is if the pattern plays out normally it goes and tests the 200 day simple moving average which is somewhere between 5,000 and 4,900 on the Nifty. So those levels anywhere between 5,000- 4,860 and 17,100 to 16,700 on the Sensex, I think those levels will be tested.
I dont see it running away as such, there will be enough of opportunities in the period of a week when that testing takes place for you to buy stocks and typically what happens when the market does a 60% retesting, you would be surprised to see how many stocks come back to the lows to the last couple of Tuesdays even though at that point the index was much lower. But that is typical of what a retesting does, so you will get enough opportunities to buy.
The fear this time as compared to the previous occasions, in the previously the fall has been in some sort of a ladder where it keeps on going up and coming down but the trend is a little down and then you get the final pain. This time the pain was in seven days, stocks have fallen 65% to 70%, which has completely wiped out two aspects of the market, the trader side and the retail interest side. Plus you have the FIIs selling on a continuous basis, so three parts out of the four if you leave out the domestic mutual funds that are trying to nibble every day.
So there are three aspects of the market missing out on the buy side which is why the pain is a little more this time and even if we get to those levels, we may not see the sharp bounces that we are used to but we may see more of a consolidation and a base building and then a steady move up.
Q: Can you open up a trade at 5,100 or not quite?
A: I would wait, I am very clear this time the fall was so sharp and it has taken out three aspects from the market already. So any bounce or trade is so low on volume that the moves are going to be a little volatile. The market needs to settle at some point and one is probably better off trading on the up tick a little higher than trying to trade volatility and I dont think it makes sense to trade volatility because the volumes are too thin and movements will be very sharp.
I think one needs to wait for things to settle down. We maybe decoupled in the sense of the economy, but in terms of like everyday you hear different FIIs selling out, they have to off set some of the sub prime losses by selling across Asia and thats still happening, so wait for that to settle down. The way they are selling, they are in no hurry to come back and buy, so the market is going to spend some time at the lower level and consolidate. Its not going to hit some point and run away. You will have enough opportunities, so just wait for it to settle down.
Even if you had some trading sessions where nothing happened, a 50 point band on the Nifty or a 100 -150 point band on the Sensex that might be good for base building. I dont think anybody is interested in seeing 500 points up and another 500 points down.