Bulls euphoria : when does the party end ?

kkseal · #51 16th December 2006, 09:05 PM

Just saw a flash on NDTV Profit about Adv Corporate taxes being 40% higher y-o-y (not sure if it's for the 3rd quarter though) The flash also says that FinMin is mulling a cut in Corporate Tax rates in the next budget.

Another small Technical hope :-

After closing for 2 days below the (20,2) Bollinger bands both indices have closed above the lower bands the next 2 days. On Thursday closing was above the lower 1SD band (i.e. Bollinger (20,1)) and on Friday both Sensex & Nifty managed to close above the centre line (i.e. the 20 EMA line). This is deemed bullish.

Also the candlestick pattern for the last 3 days have been one very close to the 3 White Soldiers pattern (but for the gap up opening on Friday). This is generally followed by a consolidation.

Also the first Fibo tgt of 14142 for an intermediate top is yet to be achieved. The mkt parameters look better than what it was before the fall.

Nothing wrong with global mkts either (so far).

Hoping for the best next week.

Regards,
Kalyan.

toxicexpulsion · #52 17th December 2006, 02:03 AM

Hmmm, fundamentals are driving the techinicals.

kkseal · #53 17th December 2006, 03:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by toxicexpulsion

Hmmm, fundamentals are driving the techinicals.

I firmly believe that it's the Fundamentals that drive everything; Technicals helps with the timing (that's also important as you'd know from your MTNL experience).

More than the fall, I was shaken by the poor Industrial Production nos for Oct. If that is an indication of things to come then no 'support' on the charts can save us! Hope it's only a blip.

Regards,
Kalyan.

Agilent · #54 17th December 2006, 08:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kkseal

I firmly believe that it's the Fundamentals that drive everything; Technicals helps with the timing (that's also important as you'd know from your MTNL experience).

More than the fall, I was shaken by the poor Industrial Production nos for Oct. If that is an indication of things to come then no 'support' on the charts can save us! Hope it's only a blip.

Regards,
Kalyan.

This Oct (versus Sep) matter ... r u sure its not a recurring feature every yr (due to Festival hols .... like a foreign analyst suggested on CNBC)

How was the trend in 2005 ... for those two months (the latter being the Diwali mth) ?

AGILENT

kkseal · #55 17th December 2006, 03:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Agilent

This Oct (versus Sep) matter ... r u sure its not a recurring feature every yr (due to Festival hols .... like a foreign analyst suggested on CNBC)

How was the trend in 2005 ... for those two months (the latter being the Diwali mth) ?

AGILENT

Yes Agilent, every year the IP figs for the festival month is relatively lower. But what is disconcerting is the extent of the y-o-y difference in the fig. From 10% last yr to 6% this year. While some slowdown is inevitable (due to the higher base effect after 4 yrs of rapid growth) such a big difference signals a hard landing for the economy (and when the mkt mirrors it what do we have? - a severe crash! God forbid).

But it could well be a blip. More so as all other figs (like the latest adv tax figs) look very healthy.

BTW the inflation has also come down. This may keep the fidgety Reddy @ rest for sometime!

Regards,
Kalyan.

toxicexpulsion · #56 17th December 2006, 09:54 PM

I bought MTNL at the top and sold at the bottom.. lol

kkseal · #57 17th December 2006, 10:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by toxicexpulsion

I bought MTNL at the top and sold at the bottom.. lol

Was that the penny that sank .... ?

Seems foolish on hindsight but happens in a panic situation.

I too have made stupid mistakes in the past - like chasing a stock when it was skyrocketing & woefully watching it fall just after i had purchased it! And then selling at a loss in panic ... and then finding it move up again ... the usual mistakes of a groping novice!

I guess it happens to everyone of us sometime or the other. Part of the learning process.

Regards,
Kalyan.

Agilent · #58 18th December 2006, 12:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kkseal

Was that the penny that sank .... ?

Seems foolish on hindsight but happens in a panic situation.

I too have made stupid mistakes in the past - like chasing a stock when it was skyrocketing & woefully watching it fall just after i had purchased it! And then selling at a loss in panic ... and then finding it move up again ... the usual mistakes of a groping novice!

I guess it happens to everyone of us sometime or the other. Part of the learning process.

Regards,
Kalyan.

You are right ... I also had spells like that... and thought one way out is to sell when I wanted to buy , and buy when I wanted to sell

Those days (early 80's) one could freely short sell scrips in the 'Forward' Grp

One lives and learns

AGILENT

kkseal · #59 18th December 2006, 02:36 AM

Good news! ONGC strikes gas in KG & Mahanadi basin.

When ONGC - the elephant - moves up it pulls the indices up along with itself (particularly the Nifty where it has the highest weightage).

We are only 12 points away from the trend decider level of 3900 on the Nifty. Will the bulls give up after having come so close and now with the elephant on their side? Would be surprised if they do.

Makes me more hopeful about today.

KALYAN.

Agilent · #60 18th December 2006, 09:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kkseal

Good news! ONGC strikes gas in KG & Mahanadi basin.

When ONGC - the elephant - moves up it pulls the indices up along with itself (particularly the Nifty where it has the highest weightage).

We are only 12 points away from the trend decider level of 3900 on the Nifty. Will the bulls give up after having come so close and now with the elephant on their side? Would be surprised if they do.

Makes me more hopeful about today.

KALYAN.

Depends on what yr perspective is ... yes the news is good for a 1 day to 1 week scenariao ... but for a medium/long term perspective (which is the focus of this thread) , how is that going to affect corporate India's performance ?

I am confused... are you a daytrader, or an investor ?

AGILENT

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