Bulls euphoria : when does the party end ?

Agilent · #41 14th December 2006, 11:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jatayoo

Dear RSI
At present all the players are very very cautious,hence the low volumes.Fear at this stage is good.
Secondly, wny did the markets correct at all??
It was due to irrational fear spiked by CRR hike and manufacturing slowdown.In fact now it is being realised that these two measures cannot slowdown the fundamentally strong growth momentum.Both these news items came on the heels of last friday's correction.In fact in hindsight i feel that some "insiders" may have got information of RBI's move during the post lunch session of the markets and shoved on the breaks.
In the process they may have made a ton by teusday evening.WHAT A SETUP.

U don't always need a trigger for markets to correct (thru secondary trends, be they up or down).

What was the trigger in May/June ? I dont know of any ... do u ?

The IIP nos may have just accelerated ( and not started) the present correction .... if u look carefully the fall started a couple of days before that 'news'

Read abt Primay/secondary/minor trends in any good TA classic. Secondaries dont need a trigger ... and we are probably seeing one

AGILENT

kkseal · #42 15th December 2006, 01:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by amitt29

Quote:

The markets didnt fall on Wednesday,but it is frequently violating my thresholds and for long periods of time.Thats disconcerting for me.

Could you elaborate a little on that please? Didn't quite get what you meant by it.

Quote:

Its very easy for market movers(who sold on friday afternoon prior to rbi hike news)to mantain an A/d ratio and also some value punters.

Well i may be wrong I'm far too inexperienced to understand all the games that goes on in the mkts. But i would think it would be far easier for such operators to manipulate a few a Sensex stocks (& keep pushing the indices up as had been happening for weeks before the fall) than to manipulate the entire mkt breadth. Also such mkt distorting manipulations are more rampant in F&O then cash. That is why the rising cash volumes (& the somewhat subdued F&O vols) with a corresponding (dramatic) improvement in mkt breadth in the last 2 days offers me some hope.

Quote:

When something looks too good to be true its not true.

Very true. The turnaround has been too dramatic We shouldn't let down the guards yet.

Quote:

And my friend its really scary time to be in stocks,when ur (or for that matter my aunt says its time to buy).

OH you don't know my aunt! She was buying in truckloads during the May fall when i was too scared to move convinced (by God knows what) that mkts would go to 15k next year!! May be ignorance is bliss, after all

Quote:

I can be wrong too.

So can I. What the markets will actually do remains anybody's guess.

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Its very good interacting with you.

Same here my friend. The best thing about such a Forum is that we are always amongst friends with a simillar passion - be it hobby or profession. So one is never alone - in good times & bad. And there is always something to share &/or learn.

Warm Regards,
Kalyan.

kkseal · #43 15th December 2006, 01:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Agilent

U don't always need a trigger for markets to correct (thru secondary trends, be they up or down).

What was the trigger in May/June ? I dont know of any ... do u ?

The IIP nos may have just accelerated ( and not started) the present correction .... if u look carefully the fall started a couple of days before that 'news'

Read abt Primay/secondary/minor trends in any good TA classic. Secondaries dont need a trigger ... and we are probably seeing one

AGILENT

Yes, secondaries will happen whether there's any negative trigger or not. It can simply happen when mkt players (specially the big ones) start getting uncomfortable with the prevailing valuations & decide to book profits or when the liquidity starts tightening (this as far as i can remember was the only trigger in May when the Fed raised int rates the 16th time followed by BOJ after many years). Nothing can continue to move up up up indefinitely.

Also i think it's a bit unfair to bring up all these conspiracy & manipulation theories only when mkts go down. Mkts had moved up for 3-4 months without any significant correction. Now is that healthy? Don't think so. Yet nobody complains nobody cries foul when such upmoves happen.

It's like we move up only because of our glorious Fundamentals but come down because of dirty manipulations! This i don't think is the truth. It's also harmful as it blinds us from the true reasons & does not let us learn from them (& be on our guards the next time such reasons surface).

Regards,
Kalyan.

Agilent · #44 15th December 2006, 10:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Agilent

Guys

Take care .. what we are seeing could be mere 'dead cat bounce' ... if indeed we are in an 'intermediate' correction

See one yr chart and note how many such bounces ocurred in June/july .... remember that traumatic phase ?

http://finance.*****.com/charts#char...urce=undefined

Good luck

AGILENT

Those who cannot recall history are condemned to repeat it

The more I look at recent days' trends, the more I feel we are in a dead cat bounce

Only time will tell

AGILENT

Saint · #45 15th December 2006, 11:36 AM

Quote:

OH you don't know my aunt! She was buying in truckloads during the May fall when i was too scared to move convinced (by God knows what) that mkts would go to 15k next year!! May be ignorance is bliss, after all

Nothing wrong with that,my friend......in a secular bull,every intermediate trend correction(aka crash in layman lingo) is a buying opportunity.Your aunt would end up more right than wrong if she were to just blindly enter during a crash and then sit tight.

But the problem with this is:When the primary trend is over,and the market tops and falls with its own weight,your aunt would still be buying at every crash and sitting tight.Probably losing all profits made in this Bull run.

So you are more right than your aunt ....

Ignorance is never bliss in the long run........In the long run,Knowledge is Power.

Saint

toxicexpulsion · #46 16th December 2006, 02:30 AM

if the bull run started in 2003 - its 3 years now. How long do bull run's usually last?

kkseal · #47 16th December 2006, 05:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by toxicexpulsion

if the bull run started in 2003 - its 3 years now. How long do bull run's usually last?

Don't know if there's any fixed timeframe but generally, in any economy the base effect (in Corporate nos., Industrial growth figs etc.) starts building up after 3-4 yrs of strong growth. This is also the time when the liquidity scenario starts tightening (due to inflation worries). All this is reflected in the stk mkt trends.

Like in our country the current Economic growth cycle is likely to reach an (intermediate) peak this FY, then cool off a bit in the next 2 yrs. Likewise the stk mkts is expected to reach a peak sometime, then decline, then remain rangebound (consolidate) for sometime before moving up again.

Regards,
Kalyan.

umeshpune · #48 16th December 2006, 05:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Agilent

The more I look at recent days' trends, the more I feel we are in a dead cat bounce

Only time will tell

AGILENT

Nice piece of research work Agilent, even I feel this recent rally is a dead cat bounce. Any Sharp correction, like the one we have witnessed, cannot be complete in a matter of three days, I think we are at an short term downtrend, which may begin anytime next week and should last atleast for a period of two to three weeks for the market to resume its uptrend.

I have been reading all your views, and have benefitted greatly, I must admit I may not as learned and technically qualified as some of you are, but I have this gut feeling, markets could correct, although Iam equally convinced about the long term story.

Let me wih you all happy investing, may you all reap a fortune, God Bless

kkseal · #49 16th December 2006, 06:49 PM

Anyone has any news on the Advance Tax figures? Were supposed to come out on 15th (i.e. yesterday) weren't they?

Could be the decider on Monday.

Agilent · #50 16th December 2006, 08:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by umeshpune

Nice piece of research work Agilent, even I feel this recent rally is a dead cat bounce. Any Sharp correction, like the one we have witnessed, cannot be complete in a matter of three days, I think we are at an short term downtrend, which may begin anytime next week and should last atleast for a period of two to three weeks for the market to resume its uptrend.

I have been reading all your views, and have benefitted greatly, I must admit I may not as learned and technically qualified as some of you are, but I have this gut feeling, markets could correct, although Iam equally convinced about the long term story.

Let me wih you all happy investing, may you all reap a fortune, God Bless

Thanks .. may u also gain in the long run
AGILENT

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