market gossip fr chamatcar

Some people call it a failure and ask writer to admit the mistake. Well. At Chamatkar we have been taught to protect investor’s interest to the best possible though we are neither market makers nor brokers nor operators. We try to derive the best out of the system and share with you. SBI is classical example. Even since Rs 900 we are bullish on this stock and irrespective of SBI going to dogs at Rs 854, we have decided to carry the stock in our recommended SC calls. Another example was RIL. We were ever bullish in RIL from Rs 500 with target price of Rs 1400 and also first to disclose the value of de-merged stocks. When today a wire media projected the price of Rs 400 for the residual part of RIL, we had the last laugh to see the valuations. At this valuation RIL is already trading at Rs 1120 and with listing gains and upside of another Rs 100 in RIL would take RIL to Rs 1400 as projected by us to begin with us.

Stock market requires patience and investors do need to understand that all stocks cannot move with Sensex. Some are slow movers and some are fast. Some move against the trend whereas momentums stocks only moves with the trend. Therefore entry and exit in momentum stocks could be linked with Sensex not for all. Typically stocks move with some announcements like Sayaji Hotel. Accumulation in this stock had taken place at Rs 10 where we had initiated a buy call but RJ’s entry was announced only at Rs 80 plus. There are some silent stocks like VIP and Blow Plast where even RJ is waiting for re-rating and some triggers and therefore investors can not say this stock is not good, it is underperforming and therefore we need to exit.

Typically off late the trader’s mentality has become to go after stocks which move CTC like Transgene Biotech in the haste of getting quick bucks but what is the end result..? One down circuit and then up everybody is out of the game…?

Century Textiles is my best bet at the moment as Kumar Mangalam is on the verge of taking charge of Century which will allow him to form a dream myth cement entity. Century is also shifting its plant to Gujrat and also selling its worli property to Wadia Trust. Cement valuation is yet to be reflected in Century price because ACC has moved from Rs 300 to Rs 600 and yet Century is lying in the range of Rs 300. Once it crosses Rs 360, it will go into overdrive with very few delivery trading. I think Century is heading for Rs 600 to Rs 700 in next 12 months.

tanewbie,

we need to hear more from you, as you have the patience to write detailed analysis.

also, keep posting any new things coming up,so that small investors (most of us here are) will be protected.

at the end i say, its a individual call before any decision to be made.

thanks for the post.

Satya

Churn your portfolio.... Feb 9,2006
Market closed all time high yet with fear and greed where this market will go. If you want to protect yourself from the vagaries of nature then just get out of all stocks which are extremely hyped and trading at 30 plus PE such as entertainment, hotel, retail sector, sugar etc and switch to stocks with potential of growth and yet trading at PE less than 10 such as private banking, metal, tea, select commodity etc. The rationale is very simple. Sooner than later a correction of 1000 points is not ruled out which will affect all fancied and highly liquid stocks because investors mentality always drawn to such stocks only. This is the way of distribution. Panic exit always drift the price more than warranted.

Again, just ahead of Budget, blind buying should be avoided. Steel and Cement sector is likely to get boost simply because the largest consumer in this sector will be none other than Govt. The star attraction of the Budget could be PSU stocks in road logistics and tourism which might get major benefit due to change in the ministry just ahead of Budget that too from a weak Hyderabadi to favoured congress spoke person. Off course, fertiliser and food processing companies could be largest beneficiary given the budgetary provisions in the Budget which is major reason of deficit. Tea prices are rising on the back of 4 mn shortages and increase in consumption taste globally raising demand out of proportion. Industrialization, new construction and Malls would augur well for float and figured glass.

There is some amount of fear that the rate of capital gains is likely to be raised which I think blown out of proportion. Logically since Govt is able to raise the tax collection to everybody’s surprise leaves no doubt on this front. It is now proven that the reduction of tax increase the tax compliance and collection. Reduction of corporate tax could a surprise whereas 15% tax in case of derivatives trade instead of 35% now seems possible and an exercise to boost revenue through much higher volumes.

So long as bears not come forward to cut their short positions in Nifty, market is unlikely to correct the way projected by all.

“It does not matter if you are wrong about nine stocks out of 10, provided your tenth pick is a 20 bagger. “- Bill Miller.

Head : Sectoral call.... Date : 2/8/06
Brief :
Some short covering has taken place today but yet the fire is not over. Only Bulls gone short being desperate to cut their short positions sensing the market behaviour. Bears are still exposed and shorting further.

I have all bets on SBI and ONGC because Sensex management is possible only through these 2 wizards. Both will have some positive announcements to prop up their buying.

Budget exercise has begun and favorite and adverse sectors are on search. My call is enter fertiliser, chemicals, tea, media, auto, auto components, power, power equipments etc whereas Sugar a sector to exit. With two states lined up for election and sugar prices ruling all time high there is definitely some kick coming in this budget in the form of reduction in import duty. High sugar prices are definitely a threat for the Govt and needs to be dealt seriously. In any case the run up in the sugar sector is so high and placement at domestic funds etc indicates exit of smart players which means retail should play sugar sector very carefully. I would suggest switch to fertiliser or tea which are better poised for growth with lower risks.

As regards stock specific comments I think our two old research stories are now taking shapes where investors can have serious look. One B & A Ltd which has earned almost Rs 14 per share in Sept quarter on equity of Rs 3 crs and with tea production ramp up from 5mn kgs to around 6.7mn kgs this year and domestic short fall of 30 mn kg with draught in Kenya tea could be bumper story. Majority of tea stocks like Dhunseri, Mcleod and Gooricke are in firm grip of big players which leaves little scope of your entry. Only stock which can give you sufficient comfort is B & A Ltd. With equity as low as Rs 3 crs and expected rise of Rs 10/kg could add Rs 20 EPS in the bottom line? I think this is sufficient for B & A Ltd to generate spark…

Another old baby is Pennar Industries Ltd. Post CDR equity has gone up to Rs 38 crs and where the management is holding as high as 65% after it acquired stocks allotted to IDBI. It has announced even an open offer for 20% buyback which is unlikely to get any response. Management is keen to acquire another 15% from ICICI. Pennar is set to report sales close to Rs 500 crs in 06 out of which 60% will come from value added products and only 40% from CR. Next year top line is set to grow at Rs 650 crs and break up could be 70:30 in favour of auto components. At the juncture company might split into two through de-merger route to separate auto ancillary and CR divisions and a great amount value unlocking will come forth. It could be surprising figure and therefore Pennar could be a real jackpot if held till Dec 07. May be 10 baggers.

TANEWBIE
Pennar does look interesting... see chart attached... and Dec ending Quarter was profitable ( after ages??). How is current working and outlook for the year, I mean EPS


But why did it slump after it reached 23 ? A pretty steep correction I must say ....

AGILENT

Attached Files

Pennar Inds Chart.doc (50.0 KB, 18 views)

Date : 13 Feb 2006 Time : 15:49:50
Momentum continued...

Rally continued even though analysts from every nook crying for caution. It will open with another 50 points gap tomorrow to withhold its current steam. Tea and power were at their best. Steel is catching momentum again.But the best pick will be SBI before Budget. In cash TFCS is finding some takers.
As regards Triveni Glass, the stock was met with huge selling pressure
today from some broking house as it was not in funding list. However
knowledgeable sources eat the pie being value buying. Any stock with
EPS of Rs 15 is only an opportunity to share the fruits. I heard that
management are about to close a deal with a leading FII for placement
as well as funding to make the company debt free. If this happens even in
07, Triveni will cross its previous high. As per my understanding IDBI has
waived its right to get 40 mn shares at par in order to support Triveni
revival and in fact allowed liberal repayment which will have good
impact in Q4 earnings. Triveni Glass has already corrected from Rs 106 to Rs
80 close to its 200 DMA of Rs 76 which suggest very limited downside in
this stock and big upside left open. Chamatkar has already taken stake in
the co being extremely bullish on the prospect. Chamatkar also continue to
hold its stake in Basant, Sanguine and Pennar and looking out for more
opportunities.
We have released Sanguine report today so that investors can satisfy
themselves on the quality of the stock in which they are investing.
Further updates on these companies will be reassessed and released from
time to time.

Perhaps you missed my post... so here it is again... in case you have time to clarify, pl let us know what to make of the steep correction in Pennar (see chart in my previous post)

Surely you would have got in much earlier, I mean much b4 it peaked... (and were u able to unload some at the top ?) ... now that it has corrected, are u buying some more?

Rgds

Hi Agilent

I mostly ignore the picks given by chamatcar guy. I did not look at Pennar. His picks may perform but somehow it does not suit my style.
However I may look at Triveni Glass for buying but only after adecent correction.

Wait for buying....

Though market has closed 5 points plus, the move was manipulative. HLL
and
ITC acted as Sensex savers whereas selling immerged in Infosys, ONGC,
Satyam and Wipro. Tomorrow, Tech will get stabilized and Bhel, BEML,
BEL,
will get hammered. This is a regular practice. Nifty from minus 20,
came
on par and RIL and Infosys were having positive rollover charges of Rs
10
and 20 which explains the methodology of the carrying costs. Market
driver
never pays carrying cost which means, yet strong correction is underway
in
coming trading sessions though Sensex has been kept flat.
Sell at every rise because Rs 40000 crs OI positions can’t get rolled
over
without correction. Till yesterday only Rs 3000 crs were rolled over.
Market set to breach 10000 marks (the psychological barrier) shortly
which
will create panic like black Friday in any of the next three trading
sessions. Think of buying only after Tuesday or Wednesday next. I am
extremely positive going forward and the sell signals should not be
construed as end of Bull Run. We will decide the long term trend only
after seeing Budget. May be few positive surprises might be sprung in
this
budget like amnesty which might deal with the deficit going forward.
As regards, Bihar Sponge, it is learnt that this Modi gr company is
finally coming out of wood and India’s best research house is eyeing
stake
in the company. I hold to believe that Steel and Sponge Iron industry
are
set to do well and therefore investment in this scrip may though of
with
long term perspective.

Quote
Hi Agilent

I mostly ignore the picks given by chamatcar guy. I did not look at Pennar. His picks may perform but somehow it does not suit my style.
However I may look at Triveni Glass for buying but only after adecent correction.

UNquote

TANEWBIE

Excuse me for asking (but I am truly foxed): who / what is Chamatkar ... and (with due respect) why have you chosen to quote market gossip posted there if you yourself are sceptical about their reccos

I mean... first you quoted them reccomending Pennar , justified by a long para of fundamental factors, and then you say you ignored all that and stayed away from Pennar.

Please shine a torch, I am lost in the dark

AGILENT

Hi Agilent

I really dont know who chamatcar is. I get his comments through email from a yahoo group where its posted and I post it here. I like his style of writing and reasoning on the state of martkets and his conviction in what he says.
So I am sort of addicted to his columns. thats all. He gives many picks as multi baggers andthey also have street calls for FNO. As I said his picks do not suitmy style and so I stay away from his calls. I am not saying his calls may not work. In fact I feel that hiscalls will work as his conviction levels are very high atleast on paper.
Till yesterday I was fully invested now I am getting out of my portfolio to the extent of 50% so I may have some cash for some new investment calls.

I hope Ihave clarified all your doubts. I really dont have time to analyse his calls nor had the cash to invest as Iwas fully invested. Now the situation is different. Thhough I dont have time, I have 50% of the portfolio in cash. Whenever I analyse a stock fundamentally I do post in the forum as techno-funda pick.

See my previous posts:
http://www.traderji.com/investing-fu...light=tanewbie
http://www.traderji.com/equities/254...light=tanewbie

and so on.
Whenever I analyse I do post. I stopped anlaysing as I was fully invested by June 05. Later I got stcuk in Oct crash. Now I feel comfortable as I have lightened my portfolio.
Now I am concentrating on FNO trading system so that one makes money whther the trend is up or down.
Thats all I have to s ay.
I am sorry for the lengthy post.
Cheers