Jubilant Foodworks - I am bleeding - Need Help!

#1
Hi fellow traders!

Jubilant has moved 20% since beginning of March. I have been short on it at 1112/-. It is now at 1280/-. I fail to understand what could be causing this movement and is it to continue? Should I book my looses and move out or continue with my position?

I know there have been a couple of brokerage reports saying that 'same store sales' decline should not affect the company significantly as it would be compensated by growth in the number of stores in Tier 2 and 3 cities. But still i fail to understand such a massive move.

Any help would be appreciated!

Thanks!
 
#2
Thanks for the swift reply Vivekanand! I agree with your price points. However, I am still concerned with the sharp movement. Why would there be a 20% appreciation in 9 trading sessions when nothing at all has changed. Even the news media is also all quiet. So news event movement either. Any clue? Any suggestive explanations?

I am thinking of holding on to my short position as I have very serious doubts on the growth trajectory of the company. The very high PE and doubtful expansion of Dunkin Doughnuts franchise are my reasons. Your and other peoples thoughts are most welcome.

Thanks!
 

DSM

Well-Known Member
#3
Trading on fundamentals with a short-term view is a recepie to disaster. While your long term outlook may well be right, ignoring the charts / momentum / trend is like crossing the tracks without looking at the speeding train.

Where to enter is as important as when to enter. And as pointed out in the preceding post, money management is the key, which will allow you to take many trades rather than holding out to a painful position and seeing your capital eroding away. If you are wrong about your trade, its easier to get off initially with a small loss, rather than to hold your views and loose half your shirt. While it may be too late to act on now, you can keep SL/exits in mind when taking the next trade.


Thanks for the swift reply Vivekanand! I agree with your price points. However, I am still concerned with the sharp movement. Why would there be a 20% appreciation in 9 trading sessions when nothing at all has changed. Even the news media is also all quiet. So news event movement either. Any clue? Any suggestive explanations?

I am thinking of holding on to my short position as I have very serious doubts on the growth trajectory of the company. The very high PE and doubtful expansion of Dunkin Doughnuts franchise are my reasons. Your and other peoples thoughts are most welcome.

Thanks!
 
#4
Trading on fundamentals with a short-term view is a recepie to disaster. While your long term outlook may well be right, ignoring the charts / momentum / trend is like crossing the tracks without looking at the speeding train.

Where to enter is as important as when to enter. And as pointed out in the preceding post, money management is the key, which will allow you to take many trades rather than holding out to a painful position and seeing your capital eroding away. If you are wrong about your trade, its easier to get off initially with a small loss, rather than to hold your views and loose half your shirt. While it may be too late to act on now, you can keep SL/exits in mind when taking the next trade.
Thanks DSM! Cannot disagree with you. My mistake here. Nobody to blame for it.

Having said that, i am still wondering have there been any news events/developments that have led to such a jump in price that i might not be aware of??

Any technical triggers if not fundamental? i might be beating around the bush here and i am sorry if that's the case but i need to understand..
 

DSM

Well-Known Member
#5
Amardeep,

While your trading style is fundamental/newsbased, do check the charts before you enter the trade. Much of the good/bad news gets discounted in the price. Stocks move up, even after bad results. The reason given is that the 'expectations are better' 'management commentry is estimating improvement' and other BS And ofcourse, the reverse is true. Stocks move down even when they meet the estimates. Its easy to plant the stories in the media. You can see the practicals in the next month earning reports. No fundamental or technical analysis is infalliable. Read the charts. Enter a position. Hold on to good trades, and cut your losses quickly. You will be surprised how efffective this strategy is.... In trading, money management is the key. Preserve capital when wrong and increase when trade is right.

Thanks DSM! Cannot disagree with you. My mistake here. Nobody to blame for it.

Having said that, i am still wondering have there been any news events/developments that have led to such a jump in price that i might not be aware of??

Any technical triggers if not fundamental? i might be beating around the bush here and i am sorry if that's the case but i need to understand..
 
#6
Amardeep,

While your trading style is fundamental/newsbased, do check the charts before you enter the trade. Much of the good/bad news gets discounted in the price. Stocks move up, even after bad results. The reason given is that the 'expectations are better' 'management commentry is estimating improvement' and other BS And ofcourse, the reverse is true. Stocks move down even when they meet the estimates. Its easy to plant the stories in the media. You can see the practicals in the next month earning reports. No fundamental or technical analysis is infalliable. Read the charts. Enter a position. Hold on to good trades, and cut your losses quickly. You will be surprised how efffective this strategy is.... In trading, money management is the key. Preserve capital when wrong and increase when trade is right.
Dear DSM,

Thanks for your help. Would have to say, you sound totally correct this time as well! I think i learn my lesson now. Would wait on this trade for a few more days, see if i am able to cut the losses by some margin and then i guess as everyone's saying, money management is king. Cut losses quickly; let profits ride!

Regards!
 
#7
was checking jubilant food's chart. As I can see, no technical analyst could have given a Buy call on this stock before 1st march. just a strange big order of 4 million shares.... when market was going down... insiders trading i guess...

but from 1st march it went up like crazy... just a bad luck here..!!
I called this stocks JUBILANT FIREWORKS:D...I like this stock.....for Gambling:thumb::thumb::thumb:
 
#8
Anna VT Meharwade, How about offering some advice which will provide amardeep any solace. And your targets of 951 and 681 can only be dreamt about now.


JublFood is totally controlled by FIIs and hardly any free floating stock. You are totally at the mercy of them. If you notice stock trend for past few months, it ends near the lows by the time of settlement. Having said that 1110 was a bad price to enter. Once the price comes to a place, where you are comfortable with the loss, put a SL and hope the price comes down to your sell price
 

jassinko

Well-Known Member
#9
CMP 1165 Running with profit of Rs. 35000/-of 140 points(*250/Lot size)


Great Call sir :clap::clap:.......... i like your confidence and convition for this call but why are u not trailing the profit????

Hope threadstarter can relax now.....he is not bleeding now:clapping:
 

Similar threads