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#1
20th July 2006, 05:46 PM
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Nifty analysis for 20 July 2006
These are my personal musings. These are not in any way meant to be trading advise.
Yesterday, in my analysis, I had mentioned that the Nifty Future was showing a positive divergence, which could allow it to be a significant short term bottom. And that is how it seems to have turned out to be. Is the Nifty still out of the woods? Much depends on how it turns out tomorrow. We have seen that there was selling pressure at higher levels. We have also seen that today, the volumes were lower than yesterday. Which puts a question mark on this rise. The Nifty opened with a bang, and went straight and hit yesterday's roadblock. As mentioned yesterday, these levels had been providing supports earlier, and now are turning formidable resistances. The lower volumes suggest that the bears have not covered as yet. It also suggests that the bulls have not positioned themselves either. On the hourly chart, there is a rising window, which the bears may try and close tomorrow. On the other hand, the bulls would not like bears to exit their existing short positions carried over from yesterday. Therefore, it all boils down to who has more muscle. The probability suggests that, this time, the bulls could be at a temporary advantage. Which could lead to some more strength in the Index. But with so many resistances overhead, how long will the strength last, is anybody's guess. Short term traders could trade long, but with strict and tight stops. 
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