Futures Market Commentary

Mina · #1 3rd June 2004, 03:26 AM

Crude Oil - the July contract was already headed south when the Kuwaiti oil minister announced the projection of a 6 to 8 per dollar drop in crude oil prices over the next two weeks. The announcement just gave it a little nudge to lower territory. Only the next several trading sessions will tell us if that has already been factored into the market. One of my customers has been short since the May 19th. He could have cashed in last Thursday for a nice piece of the market and then sold again today for more profits. I bet he is kicking himself right now.

S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow were fairly sideways for the day. It should be interesting to see what impact the unemployment claims, export sales, productivity & costs, and Institute of Supply Management non-manufacturing reports coming out tomorrow will have on prices.

For all you chocolate lovers, the good news of the day was an extreme sell off on the July Cocoa contract.

Unfortunately for Starbucks addicts, coffee merely tested yesterday's high, and rallied over 14 cents in the two weeks prior to the American Memorial Day holiday two days ago.

On the metals front, gold and silver continued the decline begun yesterday, and copper was precipitously off despite the recent rally over the past couple of weeks.

Mina · #2 4th June 2004, 02:24 AM

A pretty quiet day for the S&P 500. I had only one clear buy signal with the golden 5 on Wave59, which was a decent 3.5 point move to the upside.

Crude considered its downward slide and my short player customer covered one of his short positions for a handsome return.

Bloomberg reported on sliding copper prices and cited the slowing of economic growth in China as a bearish fundamental. The July contract tried to rally early in the session, but then fell off again.

Gold and Silver continued their downward slide and may test recent support at 372.6 and 5.20 respectively (for the July contract) over the next few weeks.

Beans went limit down pretty fast, but then rallied off the low, then dropped and closed to near limit down. Hopefully you were short. For us vegetarians that indulge in an occasional Boca Burger (soy product), it is good news. Maybe not such great news for the US government budget for farm subsidies.

Mina · #3 5th June 2004, 02:47 AM

Stock indices were in a narrow range most of the day, until they broke to the downside in the last hour of trading.

Crude oil was even more lackluster.

Beans had a significant rally.

T Bonds had a little sign of life in them, spiking early to the upside, then dipping below the opening range.

Gold and silver had a little pause in their onward decline, but nothing earthshattering - slight rally on each.

All in all a fairly boring session for the day - I wonder how I managed to stay awake at my desk, especially after not getting a full eight hours of sleep last night.

At least our Chicago weekend is supposed to have warm weather, although I will be stuck in the office tomorrow making sales calls to all those people I was unable to reach during the week.

The rest of you have a fun weekend and try not to lose any sleep over the markets - believe me, life is too short and it is certainly not worth it!

amc · #4 5th June 2004, 05:00 PM

Good work Mina on these regular updates.

Keep it up!

Mina · #5 8th June 2004, 02:53 AM

No time to recap a lot of different markets today - need to catch a train.

Stock indices rallied over the course of the day, although S&P meandered around in a narrow range in the middle of the session - boring!

One of my fellow brokers pointed out how the classic head and shoulders top pattern on the July Corn chart failed to signal a bearish trend as the contract has been rallying with not one but two breakaway gaps on the chart in the past few of weeks. So, I asked him from his experience what the statistical reliability of those chart formations has been over the past couple of decades 60%? His reply, "If even."

Well, good luck with your trades the rest of the week and enjoy your upcoming three day weekend (at least for the Americans in the crowd) as the markets shutdown this Friday for President Reagan's State Funeral.

I am outta here!

Mina · #6 9th June 2004, 12:47 AM

My apologies, no recap today - I have an appointment right after the markets close. I will resume the updates tomorrow.

Mina · #7 15th June 2004, 11:00 PM

Could not open these forums in my browser for the past couple of days, due to the item in my favorites list pointing to an obsolete page here. Obviously I figured out the problem, since I am posting right now. Today I have to leave early, to attend to some real estate business. Thursday, I have to head out to a charity event for leukemia research right after the markets close, but I should be able to do some recaps tomorrow and Friday.

Stock indexes (S&P, Dow and Nazz) started out the day with a rally, but have declined since the broadcast of Mr. Greenspan's renomination hearings today. I guess that is not exactly a vote of confidence from investors for the Fed Chairman.

Gold rallied, but I am pessimistic for tomorrow. If it declines tomorrow, however, I expect it to rally again on Thursday.

Crude declined, but I expect it to rally tomorrow. It it does that, I expect it to decline again on Thursday.

Copper had an impressive rebound, but has the news of lackluster demand from China on account of a slowing economy there already been factored into prices on the futures contract? Only time will tell.

Mina · #8 18th June 2004, 01:06 AM

Well, the gold did drop on Wednesday and rallied today as forecast. The crude did not do much on Wednesday, but rallied today, so it was a good forecast overall.

I made some pretty good trades on the S&P Eminis with the Wave59 9-5 indicators (the golden 5 blowoff signals). That is because intraday volatility has begun to pick up again on that contract.

Well, that is all I have time for today. I have to head over to Grant Park along the lakeshore (Lake Michigan) for a charity event after the markets close for the day.

Mina · #9 24th June 2004, 02:38 AM

I guess I will have to go to a weekly update, since I have gotten too busy to do the daily updates. Look for the first one Friday.

Om shanti, shanti, shantih
Harih om

Mina · #10 26th June 2004, 02:25 AM

Weekly market recap:

The S&P Emini September contract settled lower after a midweek really. So, we are looking for an opportunity to go long on Monday. August Gold futures opened sharply higher on Thursday on the Comex in New York, and rallied a little, but traded pretty much sideways all day today. Nothing to do on Monday with that contract. August Light Crude oil ended the week sharply lower after bouncing off the low at noon today at the Nymex. Summer in Chicago is not much of a summer yet - unseasonably cool and very wet. I guess I will have to count raindrops over the weekend. I need to save up enough money to retire to Hawaii!

I'll catch up with everyone in a week.

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