Trend Play System :: Nifty Future Weekly Levels

findvikas

Well-Known Member
#1
I like to keep it simple and this is another attempt to find another simple way of trading Nifty on the weekly charts without worrying about the daily/hourly moves.

Some Simple Rules
  • Maximum 1 trade every week, always keep 1 position opened.
  • Since this is a weekly trend play, I will trade only on every Friday just before the market close around 3pm
  • I am assuming Futures as continuous chart and we MUST roll over to the next month in the underlying trend.


I am working on an AFL for the same and will share it once I am confident in the system. Please bear with me till then.

I will post the weekly levels every Friday and I am confident enough to trade this with real money but will paper trade it for couple of months before actually betting any penny.

Here are the past levels triggered by this system... since 2002.






Updated with the AFL....

There is only one parameter that I have kept called Range %. This parameter is to tweak the support/resistance line to see which ratio perform better for a particular script. the default 10% is for conservative mid-long term investors while the 0% can be used by swing traders.
 
Last edited:

findvikas

Well-Known Member
#2
Since I am pretty confident in the way its holding the market and giving it a support. Here is the AFL for this system.

Screenshot...



Code:
_SECTION_BEGIN("Price");
SetChartOptions(0,chartShowArrows|chartShowDates);
_N(Title = StrFormat("{{NAME}} - {{INTERVAL}} {{DATE}} Open %g, Hi %g, Lo %g, Close %g (%.1f%%) {{VALUES}}", O, H, L, C, SelectedValue( ROC( C, 1 ) ) ));
Plot( C, "Close", ParamColor("Color", colorBlack ), styleNoTitle | ParamStyle("Style") | GetPriceStyle() ); 
_SECTION_END();


MinimumRange = Param("Trigger Range %",10,0,200);

LastYearClose = TimeFrameGetPrice("C",inMonthly,-4);
Range = ((LastYearClose-C) * 100)/LastYearClose;

//Range is always a positive number
Range = IIf(Range<0,Range * (-1),Range);

ColorSentiment = GetChartBkColor();

ColorSentiment = IIf(Range>=0 AND Range < 50,colorGreen,ColorSentiment);
ColorSentiment = IIf(Range>=50 AND Range < 150,colorOrange,ColorSentiment);
ColorSentiment = IIf(Range>150,colorRed,ColorSentiment);

Plot(LastYearClose,"\nStop Loss",colorRed,styleLine | styleThick );
Plot(Range,"\nRange",colorDefault,styleLine | styleThick | styleNoDraw | styleOwnScale);

Plot(1,"Sentiment",ColorSentiment,styleArea | styleOwnScale | styleNoLabel | styleNoTitle,0,50);


Buy = C>LastYearClose AND Range > MinimumRange ;
Sell = C<LastYearClose  AND Range > MinimumRange ;

Short = Sell;
Cover=Buy;

Buy = ExRem(Buy,Sell);
Sell = ExRem(Sell,Buy);




// -- OK, let's plot the signals using arrows

PlotShapes(IIf(Buy, shapeSquare, shapeNone),colorGreen, 0, L, Offset=-20);
PlotShapes(IIf(Buy, shapeSquare, shapeNone),colorLime, 0,L, Offset=-30);
PlotShapes(IIf(Buy, shapeUpArrow, shapeNone),colorWhite, 0,L, Offset=-25);

PlotShapes(IIf(Sell, shapeSquare, shapeNone),colorRed, 0, H, Offset=20);
PlotShapes(IIf(Sell, shapeSquare, shapeNone),colorOrange, 0,H, Offset=30);
PlotShapes(IIf(Sell, shapeDownArrow, shapeNone),colorWhite, 0,H, Offset=-25);


// EXPLORATION CODE STARTS HERE
backColor = IIf( Buy, colorGreen,colorRed);

Filter = Buy OR Sell;
SetOption("NoDefaultColumns", True );
AddTextColumn(Name(), "Scrip",1.2,colorWhite,backColor ,80);
AddColumn(DateTime(), "Date" ,formatDateTime,colorWhite,backColor ,120);
AddColumn(IIf( Buy, 66, 83 ), "Signal", formatChar,colorWhite,backColor ,50);
AddColumn(C,"Trade Price",1.2,colorWhite,backColor ,80);
AddColumn(LastYearClose,"Stop Loss",1.2,colorWhite,backColor ,80);


// EXPLORATION CODE ENDS HERE
_SECTION_END();
 
Last edited:

findvikas

Well-Known Member
#3
Levels for Week Starting March 15, 2010

Current Trend: Up (Started 6 Feb 2010 @ 4759)
Stop Loss / Take Profit Level: 4950
Points in current trend: 389

Go short if closed below 4950 on Friday otherwise stay long.
 

findvikas

Well-Known Member
#4
Levels to watch out for in the coming weeks

My view is bullish in short-mid term and here are the levels to watch out for on the weekly basis..

Week Ending 19/03 - Bearish < 4945 > Bullish
Week Ending 26/03 - Bearish < 5115 > Bullish
Week Ending 02/04 - Bearish < 5110 > Bullish
Week Ending 16/04 - Bearish < 5035 > Bullish
Week Ending 23/04 - Bearish < 5210 > Bullish
Week Ending 30/04 - Bearish < 5245 > Bullish
Week Ending 07/05 - Bearish < 5250 > Bullish
 

findvikas

Well-Known Member
#8
If RBI's action can shake US markets than so it will our markets... but I had been saying that US markets are waiting for OpEx to get over which was on Thursday and for FIIs its a new series started already they will take Indian Markets for a ride and now they have a reason as well...

I might sound counter to my own view per this system but I am now talking about a bullish wave which Nifty did on Friday...

Here - http://www.traderji.com/day-trading/36303-bulls-bears-lion-73.html#post420424

100% retracement comes to 5235 and it wont surprise me if it opens at 5235 which could be a buying opportunity if market is able to hold above 5235 below 5235 one can open shorts for a test of 5190-5090 in the expiry week.
 
Last edited:

findvikas

Well-Known Member
#9
If RBI's action can shake US markets than so it will our markets... but I had been saying that US markets are waiting for OpEx to get over which was on Thursday and for FIIs its a new series started already they will take Indian Markets for a ride and now they have a reason as well...

I might sound counter to my own view per this system but I am now talking about a bullish wave which Nifty did on Friday...

Here - http://www.traderji.com/day-trading/36303-bulls-bears-lion-73.html#post420424

100% retracement comes to 5235 and it wont surprise me if it opens at 5235 which could be a buying opportunity if market is able to hold above 5235 below 5235 one can open shorts for a test of 5190-5090 in the expiry week.
See what happened...



It opened near 161.8% level but was quick to get back to 100% retracement level... faces some fight at 100% level but was able to clear it after 2 tries... then traded some time above that level.... now while falling this 100% level gave support again and once went below it faced resistance again at this level and finally bulls gave up :D
 

findvikas

Well-Known Member
#10
Updated with the AFL....

There is only one parameter that I have kept called Range %. This parameter is to tweak the support/resistance line to see which ratio perform better for a particular script. the default 10% is for conservative mid-long term investors while the 2% can be used by swing traders.


See second post for the AFL
 
Last edited:

Similar threads