Nifty:Intraday,Need guidance!!!

gkpc

Well-Known Member
#1
Hello all!!! I am Gautam, based in Jaipur. Had become less active here due to personal reasons?
I wish to acknowledge here that I learnt the abc of TA here on this forum. It was here that I got the Kolkata Meet Indicator and with it a lot of guidance from senior memeber which enabled me to really earn intraday in Nifty.
In past few months the same system was not working efficiently and gave continuous whiplashing.
Now I and my broker friend have devised a strategy which on historical data analysis gave the following result :

It was analysed on Mini Nifty chart.

April : 17 sessions, 55 trades ~1200 points
May: 19 sessions , 65 trades ~ 1400 points
June : 22 sessions , 72 trades ~ 1700 points
July : 23 sessions, 72 trades ~ 2200 points
Aug: Till 21 Aug : 15 sessions ~ 37 trades : 1696 points.

These are all without brokerage, (my brokerage shall be Nil as it will be on sharing basis with my friendBroker, STT and other charges are leviable) And as I remember the senior member gave a lot of emphasis on 'slippage', that too has not been taken into account.)
You all might be wondering with 8200 points in 96 sessions and 300 trades why do I need to ask anybody, how the results look.

Friends, my problem is that I have started actual trading the strategy from 24th August and my results are : 3 sessions 10 trades and Profits ~ (-) 59 points!!!! In 10 trades there was slippage of ~ 17 points, I still have lost 42 points!!!

I need your guidance about what do I need to do by way of analysis etc. I can assure you I have traded as per written down rules. (Our system does have a small element of 'discretion', though these three days the discretion went only in our favour still we have Net loosing sessions.

Awaiting your valuable input. I had written directly to the senior member who seems to be absent here now a days , but I was shocked to get his reply that I first needed to divulge my 'strategy' and then only he could comment on it. He was probably asking for his 'pound of flesh' in return for the guidance he gave me for Kolkata Meet Indicator!! It is not at all accceptable.
:annoyed: It was also not expected of this esteemed member here. :(

All i ask for is some input as to what to do to further analyse the strategy and remove its drawbacks. As was 'taught' to me, i actually analysed the strategy the hard way , very meticulously "bar by bar" not using any automated analyser. What would you all suugest that I do??? I vaguely remember reading here about 'forward testing' a strategy!! Can anyone please explain the same!!!
 

gkpc

Well-Known Member
#2
Wonder why no one responded!!! Are we afraid of the Senior Member I am referring to!!!!
I always thought Traderji was a free place to air ones views and there were members going out of the way to guide juniors!! Has that spirit died now!!!
I was sure and am still sure that with some guidance about backtesting or forward testing I can have a good working Trading System!!
Dont think I am asking for much!! My only condition is that I am unwilling to share more details NOW!!!
As told to the senior member inplain simple words : I am unwilling to 'share' my system in return of any help that may come forth!!! But the senior member was after my system, he needed Free Lunch just becoz at one time he guided!!!!
 
#3
gkpc,
without actually givin out details i don't think anyone of the memebers or seniours will help u out secondly put and display ur method how did u frist show in profit and when u practically did it what happ y loss. U need to share in ur method so that seniours and other memebers will actually find out what went wrong hope u understand and be fair in sharing

regards
 

AW10

Well-Known Member
#4
Congrats Gautam for devising such a profitable system.
With due respect to professionals who were here and helped many new comers (including you as you mentioned in yr post), it is not fair to highlight to highlight your interaction with them regarding feedback on this system.

I respect your view that if u don't want to disclose your system, it is fine, and it is well acceptable as well. But just think about it, you go to a doctor and tell him that I am have some pain in my heart, I am not going to tell u anything more and now please give me treatment. In absence of the info, the doctor might give a normal pain killer and send u off.

It is reasonable for next person to ask few questions, before they can even make any suggestion.
Hope I will not offend u by asking few questions.. (let me take the risk here)..

1) Do u know how your system performs in just sideway day, narrow range days, wide range days ? What I mean is that if you just take narrow range days from history and pull out your trades for those days, then check how the system has behaved.

2) 3 days is small time to judge the performance of a system. It is your baby, so you must be having 1000% confidence in it. That confidence shd not go away in 3 days time. Else there is something missing. Not from the system development side of trading but from your trading psychology side.

3) Forward testing is also called paper trade where u follow your rules to take trade but instead of doing in with real money,u just take it on simulated platform. In absence of that, u can very well log it on paper /excel sheet and call it paper trading.
If your account permits and u can take some amount of risk with real money, then probably, best will be to trade the system with lower position size.

Important is to compare the forward performance with your expected performance, and dig into the reasons for deviation.

4) As you asked question in August, so by now you must be having good track record of performance in real market condition. Have you analysed the performance and compared it with expected result ? Are you still trading it with confidence or started tweaking it ?

As system developer, we need understand the system at psychological level and this shd match with our belief about the market. Else, we find it difficult to trade when psychology comes in place. Unfortunately, backtesting, paper trading does not cover psychology.

Your system seems to have discretionary element, which is fine. but it leaves the room for psychology to step in.

In my view, your problem in not in system but somewhere else. Even if I take 100 pt daily range which gives 2000 pts in a month, that means you are able to squeez 70/80 % of that range in your backtesting. In my view, if a system can take out 60% of potential opportunity, it is great system.

By the way, ur backtesting was done in THE BEST period of stock mkt when we got outstanding gains in 1 quarters /1 month period. This can not last forever and hence your system has to have smartness to adjust to it. Check out the underlying concept of your system ? Does this underlying concept has any human psychological reasoning to it or it is just based on number crunching and few indicators ?

System will have higher stability, if it is trading human emotions, greed and fear, their reaction of events etc.

Hope this helps.
You don't have to respond to points that I have mentioned here and post it on TJ. As long as it gives u something new to think about, my post has served the purpose. If you want to discuss any particular area, then feel free to post here.

All the best and Happy Trading
 
#5
Wonder why no one responded!!! Are we afraid of the Senior Member I am referring to!!!!
I always thought Traderji was a free place to air ones views and there were members going out of the way to guide juniors!! Has that spirit died now!!!
I was sure and am still sure that with some guidance about backtesting or forward testing I can have a good working Trading System!!
Dont think I am asking for much!! My only condition is that I am unwilling to share more details NOW!!!
As told to the senior member inplain simple words : I am unwilling to 'share' my system in return of any help that may come forth!!! But the senior member was after my system, he needed Free Lunch just becoz at one time he guided!!!!
If you dont want to disclose the system,it is fine but without disclosing the specifics you can describe what exactly you are looking for in terms of entry,exits,stops,system performance etc and many here will come out with ideas/suggestions which you may find useful......

AW10 has written a great post above on your querry....can't thing of adding anything further...

Good wishes,

Smart_trade
 

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