macro-data for nifty traders....

there are plenty of data to look for before we decide to trade in the morning. and there are a lot of us who look at these data before we decide which direction to trade nifty....

i hope everyone contributes to this as it helps everyone....

Just five stocks from the Sensex-30 basket contributed to one-half of the 3000 point rally of the benchmark index from its March 9 low. The stock of Reliance Industries alone accounted for 24 per cent of the Sensex’s gain. Others such as ICICI Bank, Larsen and Toubro, HDFC and State Bank of India have together contributed another 27 per cent. Though the Sensex has risen 38 per cent from the low recorded in March, not all the stocks in the 30-stock index have gained as much. There are stocks in the Sensex basket that have so far returned a relatively muted 9-16 per cent. The stock of Hindustan Unilever is up only 8.8 per cent, NTPC up 12 per cent, Infosys Technologies up 14.5 per cent and Grasim Industries up 16 per cent.

BNP PARIBAS=After a 35% rally since 9 March, the Indian market is trading at 13.2xFY10E, and appears ripe for a correction. The market declined
during three out of the past four elections, and we don’t expect any divergence from that trend.

CUES-

--Nifty April future premium increased to 9 points so cost of carry increased..
--Nifty open interest increased by 25 lacs suggests long addition. (Total OI 4.68 cr which is dangerous)
--Nifty call option shed 12 lacs and put option added 52 lacs.
--Put-Call Ratio increased to 1.78.
--3300 puts had open interest of 49 lacs and 3500 calls had open interest of 28 lacs, so 3300 and 3500 will be important levels to watch for.
--India VIX closed at 48.02, increased by 3% suggests instability and uncertainty.
--US markets closed in green.
--Asian markets trading mixed.
--Sgx nifty trading at 3507. (Up 15)

Mukesh Ambani promoted Reliance Industries (RIL) and state-run gas marketer GAIL India are gearing up to start the second phase of construction of the pipeline to transport gas from the Krishna-Godavari basin to the southern parts of the country. he pipeline would be complete by 2012 with a total investment of over Rs 11,300 crore, including an estimated Rs 2,300 crore from RIL and Rs 9,000 crore from GAIL India.
Both RIL and GAIL India secured authorisation from the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas in 2007 to lay these pipelines. “RIL is planning the final route of the pipeline,” said a company spokesperson without divulging further details.

CUES-

--Nifty April future premium decreased to 6 points so cost of carry decreased..
--Nifty open interest decreased by 11 lacs suggests long unwinding. (Total OI 4.57 cr which is dangerous)
--3300 puts had open interest of 47 lacs and 3500 calls had open interest of 37 lacs, so 3300 and 3500 will be important levels to watch for.
--India VIX closed at 50.51, increased by 3% suggests instability and uncertainty.
--US markets closed in green.
--Asian markets trading mixed.
--Sgx nifty trading at 3405. (Up 35)

--Positional strategy for nifty— Neutral. (Initiate short if closes below 3333 OR Initiate long if closes above 3476.)

Asset management companies (AMCs), which invest the pooled funds of retail investors in securities, are said to provide more diversification, liquidity, and professional management than individual investors can themselves manage. But a look at the stocks held by 28 asset management companies show that one-third of their assets is invested in only 10 stocks. Their favourite 10 being: RIL, SBI, Bharti, ONGC, ICICI Bank, Infosys, Bhel, L&T, HDFC Bank and HDFC.

Aim of AMC fund manager is to beat the benchmark index i.e. NIFTY.
Check out the top weightage companies in NIFTY. These top 15 companies covers almost 70% of nifty. So it is no surprise that they are playing safe so that they can outperform the NIFTY (and collect their performance bonus when other investors are loosing their money)

Happy Trading.

Could you please verify if sbi's weight has been increased to 5.12%

Is a wightage fixed or changes with price ? Like i calculate based on mkt capital and thought it changes based on price every day ...

These weigths are not fixed but they are calculated based on Market Cap.
As you know, mkt cap fluctuate every minute so they are not fixed.
So, take this info with a pinch of salt.. Trading is not about 100% accurate analysis (in my opinion) but about putting many jig-saw pieces togather and interpret them.

I don't think, SBI mkt cap has gone to 5% level in recent past. It might change marginally.

Below is the data from NSE site which is as of March End. If you notice, L&T has gone down to 16th place and SAIL has come at 15th.

Happy Trading.