NIFTY Futures Mechanical Trading

SGM · #**501** 14th April 2008, 08:47 PM

Hello

Slide no 6, from Kolkata Meet. The entire PPT is also attached.

Quote:

Mr. Vinod has indicated in his posts that he takes into account the current Volatility to calculate the Support and Resistance levels.
When the volatility is very high or the S&R Levels are too widely apart, in such cases only the signal for exit is taken and new entries are avoided.
A valid breakout takes place only when Price crosses the S/R Level and stays beyond these levels for few minutes.

Usually after a series of loss making trades (Loosing Streak) a system would throw up a big winner, then again this is also called Gamblers Fallacy

.

Anyway, Capital Preservation is the first priority for a trader.

If 8/9 losers indicates an unacceptable stats of system performance, re-evaluating if the system is broken or the markets have changed enf for the system to be modified or suspended would be a valid action.

As asishda said earilier, not recomending the use or otherwise of this system, Just sharing my views.

We need to thank Vinod for consistantly running a live system on a public forum for all of us to learn. It is given that there would be many members (maybe including Vinod) who have better performing systems and it is also understandable why they are not shared on a public platform.

Regards
Sanjay

rkkarnani · #**502** 15th April 2008, 09:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SGM

Hello

Slide no 6, from Kolkata Meet. The entire PPT is also attached.

Usually after a series of loss making trades (Loosing Streak) a system would throw up a big winner, then again this is also called Gamblers Fallacy

.

Anyway, Capital Preservation is the first priority for a trader.

If 8/9 losers indicates an unacceptable stats of system performance, re-evaluating if the system is broken or the markets have changed enf for the system to be modified or suspended would be a valid action.

As asishda said earilier, not recomending the use or otherwise of this system, Just sharing my views.

We need to thank Vinod for consistantly running a live system on a public forum for all of us to learn. It is given that there would be many members (maybe including Vinod) who have better performing systems and it is also understandable why they are not shared on a public platform.

Regards
Sanjay

Dear Sir,
All credit to Vinod. Do not at all wish to take away anything (credit) from him or his thread. I had doubts abt. the system being mechanical so my earlier post.
Agreed that we have a rule to exit after a series of loss making trades, but its not predecided how many in a row would make us exit. Similarly when the S & R levels are far apart we only exit but how do we quantify the "far apart" part: 2% 3 % or point wise >100 points or so......
My request to Vinod is to Please look into this aspect and try to improve further the system he so gracefully had been sharing with us. Apart from the time taken to study the parameters of the system to post the levels, its also time required to POST the levels here for all of us to see which Vinod has very kindly devoted.
I also totally agree to your view about NOT SHARING successful systems on a Public Forum.
All the best to Vinod for improving the system if he also feels the same is required.
Regards
R K Karnani

justnifty · #**503** 15th April 2008, 09:38 AM

Hi Vinod,

I think, even in volatile markets, there may be some losing streaks with mechanical systems. The supports and resistances may get broken multiple times.

Having said this, your system overall performs as a winner. by not trading or double guessing the mechanical system with gap-up or gap-down openings, it would be adding more strain on the system.

IMHO, Either every trade should be "brain" analyzed
OR
every trade should be blindly system followed (IF and only IF there is trust in the system that has been proven with adequate back testing).
One can't oscillate between the two....

Just my point of view...

ccmb420 · #**504** 15th April 2008, 10:32 AM

My view for wat its worth :
I also trade Nifty (Positional) on 30 minutes time frame and exit at predetermined levels of profit. I also do not trae after achieving my 6 months profit tgt early.
I find Vinods system to be quiet good. Considering he trades EOD charts the SL are bound to be BIG to safeguard the trade due to spikes in now a days mkt. What I feel that Vinod should also have an EXIT system in place to get out of a trade at some profit level. Ofcourse that will deny him BIG BIG moves of 1000 odd points but wud make the system more comfortable to trade.
I do not trade after 200 points net profit in a month or 1200 points profit in 6 months. Due to some very favourable moves I did my 6 months target (Oct to March 2008) in oct. only due to gap up and down moves and did not trade till 31st March 2008. All I can say that I would have still been able to make around 1448 points by March 2008 had i continued to trade instead of the 1200 that i made till Oct 2007, but there were big losses too insubsequent moves. I covered my deficit only in one trade of short that i would have exited on 22nd Jan 2008. But all in all with changed scenario my system is not at all peerforming in last few months. Its the same system that gave regular profits for last 3+ years.
Mr. Sanjay has rightly said that a system need to be reevaluated with drastic change in mkt. scenario.
I still feel that with some money mngmnt rules and profit booking rules ur system shall be able to give stupendous returns.
-Shravan

ccmb420 · #**505** 15th April 2008, 10:59 AM

Hello Vinod, I have also tried to develop something on EOD basis but was reluctant to post as I myself was not trading the system
Have tracked it on paper and seems to be doing good though no where near the returns ur system is giving.
Also reason for reluctance was the 'commitment' part. Unlike you I am not very much on line and do not give much time also.
Have seen SGM post about the details of your system, seems interesting.
Keep up the good work. I am gathering some ideas just seeing the levels of Suppor and Resistance posted by you.
Thank you and regards
-Shravan

vvvv · #**506** 15th April 2008, 11:25 AM

an average system wud also work wonders in a trending market..wht abt a range bound market???? do u need a seperate system for tht??

SGM · #**507** 15th April 2008, 11:32 AM

Hello RK

My earlier post was not in response to your post. Consider this as ...

I agree with the points you have raised in your posts both now and earlier regarding very wide SL, use of discreation, etc. If you are interested in taking it further, plz start a new thread to discuss related design issues and possible improvements, etc.

One of the possibility to be looked in would be a different choice of the time frame, instead of using EoD can try using hourly / 30 mins. But then we are now in the realm of speculation as vinod has not disclosed his system fully.

I am sure all of us respect Vinod's choice of not responding to system design related queries.

Hopefully we can discuss these and other issues in some different thread.

Regards
Sanjay

nadodav · #**508** 15th April 2008, 07:55 PM

NIFTY FUTURE For April 16,

Current position : Nil

Nifty Fut Closed at : 4897.15

Support : 4788
Resistance : 4934

Happy Trading.

Vinod

milkyblack · #**509** 17th April 2008, 08:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nadodav

NIFTY FUTURE For April 16,

Current position : Nil

Nifty Fut Closed at : 4897.15

Support : 4788
Resistance : 4934

Happy Trading.

Vinod

Well Mr. Vinod... though ur system has given losses... but then the market was ranging ... now i think again the market is gettin into trend... i might be wrong but this is my view.... in this case ur system should give positive results.... i hope it does ... but i really appreciate ur disciplined way of trading...

Regards

milkyblack · #**510** 17th April 2008, 09:07 AM

well the trend could be either way... i mean it is possible after such a upmove from 4700 to 4950(some more for today maybe)... the trend may reverse for the very short term... and may test 4800-4740 levels (or may be lower before the uptrend resumes)... but at which point the trend would reverse... for tht i guess Mr. Vinods system is really good... i hope all the traders going to take the next call by Mr. Vinod makes a good profit tht should take away all the losses of the previous 8 to 9 trades...

Good Luck

Regards