NIFTY Futures Mechanical Trading

justnifty · #41 2nd December 2007, 08:37 PM

Hi Vinod,

I have been following your thread for a while. As much as, this disciplined trading reduces the potential indecisive exits and reduces losses, it will show best results in a confirmed trending movement, i.e. if the market moves up or down 1000 points.

I too subscribed to the fact, as Robin mentioned on the double top, but if the double top situation was to indicate bearishness, we would have not seen a pull-up on December derivatives (probably a triple top in a couple of days????). My model shows about 6300 as December close, but we should see a bottom somewhere 5350 before that.

Robin, Vinod - thanks for your analysis, that helps me re-look at my readings.

robin027in · #42 3rd December 2007, 11:19 AM

Hello Justnifty
Nice To See Ur Reply.i Had Explained My Model Of Trading In The Last Msg. I Was Hoping If U Could Do The Same. It Will Definitely Benefit All Of Us Concerned And Help In Sorting Out The Shortcomings Of Our System.
Looking Fwd 4 Ur Reply
Regards
Robin

justnifty · #43 3rd December 2007, 11:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by robin027in

Hello Justnifty
Nice To See Ur Reply.i Had Explained My Model Of Trading In The Last Msg. I Was Hoping If U Could Do The Same. It Will Definitely Benefit All Of Us Concerned And Help In Sorting Out The Shortcomings Of Our System.
Looking Fwd 4 Ur Reply
Regards
Robin

Hi Robin,

When it comes to TA and indicators, IMHO, It can 100% explain what has happened but forecasting has always been a challange. I though trust ADX and OBV, My model is pretty simpler, I try to second guess the market movements based on 3 things, 1. Trendlines (intraday and daily), 2. Pivots to know the buy/sell strength (with EMA to help) and 3. F/O EOD stats.

Having said this, I trade Nifty, JustNifty and nothing else

.

Yes, we sure with discuss more in detail as we go along. I though keenly follow Uasish, MagnetMan, nadodav and Rajnikant Sharma's auto model.

Let's keep talking, afterall there sure is a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

nadodav · #44 3rd December 2007, 06:43 PM

NIFTY FUTURE For December 4,

Current position : LONG (at 5710 on 29/11/2007)

Nifty Fut Closed at : 5876.45

Profit/(Loss) in current trade : +166.45 (as per last closing price)
Net Profit / (Loss) since thread started : +167.45(1.00+166.45)

Support : 5767
Resistance : 5872

Hold LONG positions with SL 5767. If trades below 5767, exit LONG & go SHORT with SL 5872.

Happy Trading !

Vinod

robin027in · #45 3rd December 2007, 08:33 PM

Hi Jn
Well I Agree That Most Of The Time Tech Analysis Is Best 4 Explaining The Past But U Would Agree That This Business Of Trading Is All About Probablity And Ur Success Depends On The Number Of Odds On Ur Side. Well Atleast The Technical Analysis Help U 2 Do That.
As U Didnt Want To Know Anything About My Model I Will Ask U About Urs. First Tell Me Wat Settings Of Adx Do U Keep And Wat Conclusion Do U Make Of It. And Ya Also Tell Me Wat Is Obv?
And Let Me Know Ur Outlook Of The Nifty(as I Also Trade Just Nifty)
Regards
Robin

justnifty · #46 4th December 2007, 12:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by robin027in

Hi Jn
Well I Agree That Most Of The Time Tech Analysis Is Best 4 Explaining The Past But U Would Agree That This Business Of Trading Is All About Probablity And Ur Success Depends On The Number Of Odds On Ur Side. Well Atleast The Technical Analysis Help U 2 Do That.
As U Didnt Want To Know Anything About My Model I Will Ask U About Urs. First Tell Me Wat Settings Of Adx Do U Keep And Wat Conclusion Do U Make Of It. And Ya Also Tell Me Wat Is Obv?
And Let Me Know Ur Outlook Of The Nifty(as I Also Trade Just Nifty)
Regards
Robin

Hey Robin,

My apologies, you got me all wrong. I would love to know your strategy and share mine, the more the knowledge the better it is. The only reason that I did not ask you was that some people are very possessive about the way they read the market and they do get offended.

As I said before, my reliance (no pun intended) on TA is very minimal. Since I am a positional trader I use ADX and DMI to know the overall strength of the trend. I use a 14 day adx and look at +DI, -DI crossovers to reconfirm my trades. You surely must have reviewed them, this is my reference (http://www.chartfilter.com/reports/c12.htm)

As for OBV (on balance volume), this helps me know where the smart money is moving. i.e. lower OBV at the same price indicates downtrend, and vice-versa. This is really a good indicator.

My primary tool is just intraday trendlines. My outlook, with a disclaimer that I am still learning, is we may see a down-move from near 5925 to below 5375 in the next few days.

One more thing, I think we are hijacking vinod's thread, would it be better if we start a new one

uasish · #47 4th December 2007, 12:07 PM

A very nice effort by both of you (robin & justnifty) ,sorry missed it earlier.
Will be keen to Learn from both of you.

nadodav · #48 4th December 2007, 07:22 PM

NIFTY FUTURE For December 5,

Current position : LONG (at 5710 on 29/11/2007)

Nifty Fut Closed at : 5877.35

Profit/(Loss) in current trade : +167.35 (as per last closing price)
Net Profit / (Loss) since thread started : +168.35(1.00+167.35)

Support : 5817
Resistance : 5886

Hold LONG positions with SL 5817. If trades below 5817, exit LONG & go SHORT with SL 5886.

Happy Trading !

Vinod

robin027in · #49 4th December 2007, 11:04 PM

Dear Jn
I M Not At All Pocessive About My Trading Model. Market Is The Place Where The The Avg And The New Trader Is Always At A Disadvantage And Provides Their Hard Earned Money To Fill The Coffers Of The Experienced Investors.
If Anyone Is Serious About Beating The Mkt 1) U Can Invest In The Well Chosen Stocks For A Looooong Period(the Problem Here Is What Do U Classify As Well Chosen Stocks? When Should U Review Ur Portfolio? Not Very Easy As It Sounds. 2) U Can Buy The Mkt…. And The Only Way Is The Index Futures. But The Main Challenge Here Is That U Play In Margin And Today It Will Take Only A Swing Of 600 Pts To Wipe Out Ur Capital. So It Is Very Imp To Stay With The Trend.
So Our First Step In Any Case Is To Find If The Mkt Is Trending Or Trading(gyrating/consolidation) That Can Be Found Out From The Adx(14). As It Is At 20.22 As Of Today We Know There Is No Trend In The Mkt(+ Or -) So It Is In The Consolidation Mode Gyrating In The Zone Of 6000 To 5500.

The Fast Stochistic Oscillator Which Is The Indicator To Be Followed In This Mkt Has Reached Its Overbought Zone (87) It Should Start Its Journey Downwards. So The Mkt Should See A Level Upto 5530 Level.other Oscillators Slow Stochistic And Rsi Also Show The Same.

The Fact Supporting This Is That Mkt Has Not Closed Above 5936 Level For Last Two Tops And Faces A Huge Resistance In This Zone.

The Journey Downwards Will Face The Support At 20 Ema 5723.
Or Else If It Actually Manages To Clear 6011 Adx Will Move Up Above 25-30 Meaning A Clear Cut Uptrend .this Is In View Of The Possible Fed Rate Cut On 11 Dec

As Per Me One Should Book His Profits Now And Go Short With A Stoploss Of Closing Above 6011

Regards To All U Members
Robin

robin027in · #50 4th December 2007, 11:11 PM

Dear Members And Especially Mr Vinod

I Hope Expressing My Views On The Thread Do Not Offend Any Member Or U In Particular. Itis Only With The Intention To Share Whatever Little Knowledge I Or We Have Of Making Sense Of This Non Sense Mkt.

Regards
Robin