Macro theme for 2014- lower energy prices

#1
US Shale oil production is booming and slated to grow at 10% a year till 2019. Mexico has approved foreign investment in its oil companies.
Iran has an interim deal with US which would herald its return to oil markets. China’s growth is only 4% in terms of oil requirements. US demand for crude has been sliding. All of these point to lower oil prices this year.

Natural gas is a by product of fracking and its supply also exceeds demand, keeping low prices low in North America. This year some companies will begin exporting it to Asia- India, Japan, mainly. The price in North America is $3 and here its almost $12. The new supply should put downward pressure on prices here as well.

Together, this indicates lower energy prices and higher margins for refiners. This would make oil refiners, retailers, a good buy. Oil exploration and equipment would have downward pressure. Transport and logistics would benefit, as well as airlines and tourism. On a macro side, this would mean lower import bill for the country, which is good for the Rupee.

What would be good stocks to trade on this? I am new to the Indian equity market as I’ve mostly traded equities and FX only in US. Recommendations for stocks to follow for the longer term in India would be welcome!
 

Einstein

Well-Known Member
#2
Were you Trading in equities of have you actually invested in any for longer period of time??
 
#3
Both really. I try not to get stuck to an ideology. I make a trade and sit on it until something happens that invalidates my rationale for the trade- either price action or fundamental changes. I've held stocks for as less as a week when the stock moved 30% on something unexpected and held on to stocks like Yahoo, Google, Chipotle for a year as they were in the middle of a great run and nothing had changed.
 

Einstein

Well-Known Member
#4
You should try technical thread, there you might get great advice from swing traders.
good luck
 

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