S&P Index and a Payroll Tax Model

Payroll withholding figures that are released daily by the U.S. Department of the Treasury are a surrogate for U.S. growth. Since the U.S. economy is dominated by service-sector jobs, taxes paid by those jobholders are a better indicator of activity than the month-delayed weekly unemployment numbers which dominate the media and political landscape.

So, chart of the relationship of S&P with payroll tax receipts. Interesting to note what has happened to those receipts lately.