Stocks for the long and short term portfolio

jamit_05

Well-Known Member
#11
Hindalco, a winner in the long run, has broken an important support of 2005 and 2012 Low with good volume. It seems many want out. When index goes up, these scrips are almost flat and when Index goes down they fall hard...

Next support and the point of interest is 2004 low of 74. It may seem crazy conservative but what is 20% fall in an unpopular scrip... nothing. The metal sector is under immense pressure. These companies have taken-up really big projects on the balance sheet, with these huge debts and sector doing badly 20% fall is not impossible.


 

jamit_05

Well-Known Member
#12
A very basic and a simple mindset for investments.

When the trend is up, unpopular and unwanted companies run near flat compared to the index. And when trend is down, they can beaten the worst.

In 2010 when the Index was running upwards, FMCG sector was languishing and Software soared. Then the fortunes reversed. In 2011, when index was correcting, FMCG performed really well and software went flat.

Point being, it is tough to predict these cycles. What and when FIIs will buy or sell, is really tough to predict. It is a hunt not worth chasing. Instead, keep an eye out for scrips in nifty 50 (Barring Adani, DLF, Jp, Unitech and nonsense like that). When their chips are down accumulate them. It is like buying good companies at a 50% discount.

This approach is bound to give beat the FD by a factor of two.
 
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jamit_05

Well-Known Member
#13
Active short term stock traders look for stocks in momentum. These are the ones which are showing Growth In Profits. This is even bigger than just showing consistent profits. Like Velocity and Acceleration.

However, value investors shy away. They fear that when the profits fade away the stock will fall like a stone. Since, there is little intrinsic value. Value investors tend to stick with companies that fulfill concrete needs, like Steel, Electricity, Food, Chemical Industry... pretty much everything which can change with fashion.

Apple is such a fad-stock. Prices soar when it releases new products that find success, and v.v; A value investor, a long term investor is unable to calculate value. No support is strong enough and no high is high enough. It is a fashion. It is as good as its last product.

But there is a difference between Google,Apple and our home-grown software giants like TCS and Infy. They fulfill a basic need in the economy. Corporations cannot do without their software services. They are not a fad. They are here to stay. They do not have to invent new things, like an iMac or iPod, every quarter to keep shareholders interested. That is the difference between Infy and Apple.
 

dineshN

Well-Known Member
#14
Nice Thread! Wonder why this thread is not getting due attention!!
Invested huge money pre 2008 and got stuck since then. Still the valuation is not right. Anyway, as you mention currently many good stocks are priced attractively even at these current higher levels. And if there is any due correction further, buying these blue chips then would really give sweet fruits!
Noted your scrips, lets see how the portfolio takes shape.
 

jamit_05

Well-Known Member
#15
Index is bound to touch sub 5000 levels after General Election. Then the real correction will come, good companies will get even cheaper.

What is happening is, when Index goes up, Bad sectors stay flatish. When Index goes down they crash. I am expecting to buy most good companies at 2008 levels and the rest even lower.

I do not think it is too much to ask for, 2008 was only 5 years ago and the world economy has only been in a recession or at least not growing strongly since then.
 

jamit_05

Well-Known Member
#16
Re: A very basic and a simple mindset for investments.

When the trend is up, unpopular and unwanted companies run near flat compared to the index. And when trend is down, they can beaten the worst.
Today just at a hint of correction in the index, amidst a crazy bull run, Hindalco and Tatasteel, are 1.5% down !!

These companies will give remarkable buying opportunities in the weeks to come... watch out... these are money tripling schemes with dividends!
 

jamit_05

Well-Known Member
#18
Look at some prices !! Phenomenal. If the companies have a future then they are good buys !!

Sectors that have suffered the most in this fall

1. Metal
2. PSU
 

jamit_05

Well-Known Member
#19
Another phenomenal company as come to sight:

Engineer India​
.

It has always been nice for over a decade now but now it is desirable because the price is approaching 2008 LOW !!

Its valuations as per earnings is around 200. Have not looked at assets since it is a consulting company.

What makes the stock super nice is its CMP 150 !!

It has gathered serious bearish momentum, so waiting for sub 100 levels is justified.
 
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jamit_05

Well-Known Member
#20
Auto Sector is going to do really badly this year. Probably a good chance to buy

1) Maruti Suzuki (absolute leader in 4 whlrs and wide range of well accepted products)
2) Bajaj Auto (emerging leader in 2 whlrs, after fall out of Hero and Honda)
3) Ashok Leyland (@ Rs.6 to 10 not a penny higher)
 

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